Hiring about 70 a month, attrition at about 20, net gain of 50 pilots a month while a given new hire moves up 20 places. I spoke to someone today who interviewed yesterday and was offered a 4/13 class, so about two months from interview to class date.

If the most junior guy on 2/16/15 is 1,100, using the above assumptions the most junior person on 4/13/15 is going to be 1,300.

A year after that (4/2016) he'll be very near to 1,000 while the total pilot group will be topping out around 1,900.

A year after that (4/2017) he'll be in the 750 range while the pilot group is still around 1,900 (still 16 more options out there though).

If said pilot has no 121 time when he's hired, and upgrades in 4/2017 he'll be a line holding Captain when he upgrades. If said pilot has 121 time he'll upgrade a lot sooner.

A pilot starting class in 4/2016 (say #1,900) is likely to see a lot higher attrition, especially as the Legacies, Majors, Cargo, and LCCs start to ramp up hiring. Since this group has roughly a thousand pilots now and 20 a month, it's reasonable to assume that someone hired as #1,900 could see his number go up 40 a month. If that's the case, and even assuming some slowing of his seniority gain as his seniority increases, he being 1,200-1,300 or so after a year is very possible, and well within upgrade territory a year after that is likely.