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Ukraine bound 737 crashes leaving Tehran


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Ukraine bound 737 crashes leaving Tehran

Old 01-09-2020, 05:47 PM
  #41  
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
According to numerous sources the Iranians have 29 TOR missile systems which fire the SA-15. It’s sort of a tank chassis with radar, a three man crew, and either 8 or 16 missiles depending on model. The missile is popped out of its tube by a gas cartridge and then ignites its engine. This is the eight missile model.



Although they work best if integrated into a regional fire control network they are capable of independent action so in theory at least just the senior of the three guys in the crew could have made the call to launch.
They operate in sort of a hybrid. Mostly TIGHT knit into their IADS network, but some point defense gomers who may be off the grid.

The PRF signature is very noticable to the beeps and squeaks guys. If the system started targeting something the radar signature is unique and easy to tell from other modes of the radar. Plus, there's the launch which will be seen, and then there's the missile and it's seeker. You've got allot of tell-tale signs that will be easier to find than normal. why? all eyes and ears and electronic vacuum clearners are pointed at Iran right now. Lots of assets and multiple INT's.
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Old 01-09-2020, 06:02 PM
  #42  
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Originally Posted by Firefighter
My thing is how are these videos are perfectly angled and positioned before they even hit? Like how? Unless this aircraft had been missed by previous missiles? Or perhaps it was already hit? Something I just find weird about it.


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At least two missiles were fired. Video is everywhere these days, millions of people in Tehran, odds are that somebody was facing the right general direction and taking a video of something. May have edited out the video of the wedding or whatever before posting on twitter.

Most recent plane crashes in the US end up with video from somewhere.

Why try to make up some convoluted tin-foil conspiracy crap for something that has a very simple explanation...

Over-eager fanatics shooting anything that moves. Iranian military force structure is rather complicated and split between professionals and religious wingnuts. The professional military forces of the allies had a lot of friendly fire against aircraft in major WWII battles too. A US warship once shot down an Iranian airliner which was descending in their direction and not squawking the right code. History shows that it takes a lot of discipline to not shoot an aircraft that pops up at the wrong place and time. I hate doing DCA for that reason.
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Old 01-09-2020, 07:36 PM
  #43  
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Originally Posted by rickair7777
Over-eager fanatics shooting anything that moves. Iranian military force structure is rather complicated and split between professionals and religious wingnuts. The professional military forces of the allies had a lot of friendly fire against aircraft in major WWII battles too. A US warship once shot down an Iranian airliner which was descending in their direction and not squawking the right code. History shows that it takes a lot of discipline to not shoot an aircraft that pops up at the wrong place and time. I hate doing DCA for that reason.
Indeed. I recall a couple of Blackhawk helicopters with saddle tanks (sponson mounted long range tanks) being misidentified by a couple of Eagle drivers and taken out back in 1994 in a no-fly zone in Iraq.
The Blackhawks had started the mishap sequence by putting in the wrong transponder codes but they’d checked in with AWACS and been identified as friendlies. The AWACS people continued the chain of the mishap by noting on their screens that the helicopters were friendlies, but not informing the chopper jockeys they were squawking the wrong code.
When they came into the area the two F-15Cs, on a different frequency, asked AWACS if they had any info to pass about aircraft in the area. AWACS neglected to mention the two helicopters...continuing the chain.

Eventually the two F-15s picked up the two UH-60s and couldn’t see a friendly squawk. They notified the AWACS. Nobody on the AWACS told the fighters there were friendlies at that location.

The F-15s closed, but by this time the helicopters had entered a deep valley. The fighters each made visual IDs, one passing within 1500 feet and the other within 1000 feet yet due to the pylon mounted tanks BOTH apparently misidentified them as Hind-Ds.

The F-15s then pulled up astern the Blackhawks and informed AWACS they were engaged, which AWACS acknowledged but again failed to warn them of friendlies in the area. Two minutes later one fired an AMRAAM and the other an AIM-9, downing both US Army helicopters and killing 26 friendlies.

Yeah, it was a total cluster****. Cluster****s happen when there is a war on - and even if you just think there’s one on.
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Old 01-09-2020, 09:08 PM
  #44  
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Originally Posted by rickair7777
At least two missiles were fired. Video is everywhere these days, millions of people in Tehran, odds are that somebody was facing the right general direction and taking a video of something. May have edited out the video of the wedding or whatever before posting on twitter.

Most recent plane crashes in the US end up with video from somewhere.

Why try to make up some convoluted tin-foil conspiracy crap for something that has a very simple explanation...

Over-eager fanatics shooting anything that moves. Iranian military force structure is rather complicated and split between professionals and religious wingnuts. The professional military forces of the allies had a lot of friendly fire against aircraft in major WWII battles too. A US warship once shot down an Iranian airliner which was descending in their direction and not squawking the right code. History shows that it takes a lot of discipline to not shoot an aircraft that pops up at the wrong place and time. I hate doing DCA for that reason.


The conspiracies are definitely annoying. Thanks for the reply!


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Old 01-10-2020, 03:23 AM
  #45  
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Originally Posted by Firefighter
My thing is how are these videos are perfectly angled and positioned before they even hit? Like how? Unless this aircraft had been missed by previous missiles? Or perhaps it was already hit? Something I just find weird about it.


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These days we get video from a significant number of major accidents, either surveillance, someone's cell phone, dash cam, etc. It's no guarantee, but compared to the 80s and 90s where it was a rarity, it's becoming a rarity when there isn't video somewhere.
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Old 01-10-2020, 11:46 AM
  #46  
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Apparently, being “trigger happy” is common there. This from a 2012 NYT article,

“The combination of heightened vigilance and poor command and control led to series of mistakes, according to a highly classified 2008 Pentagon report on “Operational Mishaps by Air Defense Units.”

In June 2007, the report noted, a Revolutionary Guards air defense unit fired a TOR-M1 surface-to-air missile at a civilian airliner. In May 2008, an antiaircraft battery fired on an Iranian reconnaissance drone and a civilian airliner. That same month, an antiaircraft battery fired on an Iranian F-14 fighter jet.”

It’s behind the NYT paywall.

Supposedly, the Ukrainian investigators are being stonewalled and withheld from the wreckage which has been removed from the site. SkyNews says the Iranian government will announce a cause tomorrow.

GF
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Old 01-10-2020, 04:28 PM
  #47  
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Originally Posted by rickair7777
At least two missiles were fired. Video is everywhere these days, millions of people in Tehran, odds are that somebody was facing the right general direction and taking a video of something. May have edited out the video of the wedding or whatever before posting on twitter.

Most recent plane crashes in the US end up with video from somewhere.

Why try to make up some convoluted tin-foil conspiracy crap for something that has a very simple explanation...

Over-eager fanatics shooting anything that moves. Iranian military force structure is rather complicated and split between professionals and religious wingnuts. The professional military forces of the allies had a lot of friendly fire against aircraft in major WWII battles too. A US warship once shot down an Iranian airliner which was descending in their direction and not squawking the right code. History shows that it takes a lot of discipline to not shoot an aircraft that pops up at the wrong place and time. I hate doing DCA for that reason.
Couple small points.
Both the Italian navy and USS Sides confirmed the Iran Air flight was climbing, not descending.
The Sides also had identified the airliners transponder code correctly.

The Captain of the Sides was later critical of the actions of the Vincennes.

Much of what were official statements to the public, and even the UN Security Council, were either half-truths due to omissions, or outright lies. I suspect there will be a similar behavior from official Iranian statements.

No action taken ever has a final ending.
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Old 01-10-2020, 05:20 PM
  #48  
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Originally Posted by Bruno82
I don’t have any military experience but I would imagine the Iranian air defense folks were scared as all get out.


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scared of what?,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

An aircraft departing the international airport, squaking the assigned code, complying with the departure procedure, talking to ATC, and with the assigned over flight code?


Scared of an aircraft on a published departure procedure?


If I was a Russian trained SAM operator I might be scared if my communications were jammed and i was in sole autonomous mode.

I might be scared if I was locked up by a HARM.

I might be scared if inbound aircraft were presenting a high fast flyer profile or a nap of the earth profile INBOUND to my locaiton, as opposed to OUTBOUND, and going away from me.

HINT: an aircraft going away from me is not going to target me.


Seriously? that's the best you got?

Being "scared" doesn't equate to a lawful order to fire.
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Old 01-10-2020, 05:56 PM
  #49  
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Originally Posted by baseball
scared of what?,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

An aircraft departing the international airport, squaking the assigned code, complying with the departure procedure, talking to ATC, and with the assigned over flight code?


Scared of an aircraft on a published departure procedure?
We don't know for sure that there were not errors or miscommunication as to the departing aircraft's flight path and comms. *Typically* there will be more than one link in the chain.

Originally Posted by baseball
If I was a Russian trained SAM operator I might be scared if my communications were jammed and i was in sole autonomous mode.

I might be scared if I was locked up by a HARM.

I might be scared if inbound aircraft were presenting a high fast flyer profile or a nap of the earth profile INBOUND to my locaiton, as opposed to OUTBOUND, and going away from me.

HINT: an aircraft going away from me is not going to target me.

Being "scared" doesn't equate to a lawful order to fire.
All true... for a Russian. Or probably even regular Iranian military. But if the SAM was operated by the IRGC, all bets are off... those guys are kind of homicidal lunatics. Personally I wouldn't station an IRGC SAM launcher near the commercial airport.
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Old 01-10-2020, 07:15 PM
  #50  
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Iran admitted they shot it down after video surfaced showing the actual hit.

https://www.businessinsider.com/iran...missile-2020-1

I hate to say it but had we not attacked (and then subsequently threatened them again) I doubt this would've happened.
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