Quote:
When the DAL/NWA merger occurred, the lifetime reinstatement rights fell by the wayside and when the 744 staffing was expanded and the 747 freighters were displaced, the green book guys moved into the whale in large numbers. In the top 1/3 of the whale captains there are only 12 red book guys remaining. In fact, if you trace the militancy of Carl back in time, you can find how unhinged he got right around the time the green book guys took over the top half of the whale captain category list.
The same effect happened to a lesser degree at UAL/CAL. After the merger, it took three years for the SLI to finish up. During that time, UAL management was replacing 757's with 737 NG's. (sound familiar) Only the UAL side 757's were leaving the fleet and the CAL side got the 737 NG's. Remember when everyone was talking about 2005 hires at CAL getting 757 bids? Well that is what caused it.
After the SLI the virtual fence came down and now the vast majority of Captain bids (around 80+%) are going to former UAL pilots. Those CAL guys who got those bids early will now either bid off or be stuck at the bottom of the list for years.
So the East pilots have this temporary fence that is working in their favor now. Under their old contract, an upgrade from A-330 FO to A-320 Captain would yield a pay increase of about $15,000 per year. If that same pilot had stayed as an A-330 FO and obtained the Delta contract his raise would have been about $55,000 per year. In fact, he would have been making more than his A-3300 Captain under the LCC contract. Maybe that fourth stripe is worth it.
The bottom line is that all fences expire. These short term gains for the East pilots came at a cost of hundreds of thousands of dollars in lost wages. When the final list with AMR is done whatever advantage these guys have will melt away.
So I understand that sometimes upgrades to higher paying positions are like crack; people covet this for so long it clouds their vision of the future. Real gains are made through the contract. The East pilots would have retained most of their attrition with the Nicolau award. Even their own analysis shows the MAXIMUM delay in upgrade to Captain was two years with the Nicolau award vs. standalone. Simply getting a Delta contract would have given instant upgrade economics to their entire list. Even much more than that. Now they have to be happy with a handful of guys upgrading every month. Again, that bonus will run out soon.
So you are right it is more complicated. The bottom line is that they lost a bunch of money they will never get back. Whatever short term advantage they have is soon to be lost. Those lost years will never be won back.
Originally Posted by alfaromeo
What the East has created is a temporary fence. Right now it is working in their favor, you are correct. The problem with fences is that they all end. For instance, in the Northwest/Republic (Red Book/Green Book) merger, they had fences that lasted 18 years. When the fences were ready to expire, the Red Book team tried desperately to extend them. They had already negotiated LIFETIME reinstatement rights so that anyone displaced from the whales (red book) would have priority over other pilots (green book) for eternity. They also filed a last ditch arbitration to extend the fence that was rejected out of hand.When the DAL/NWA merger occurred, the lifetime reinstatement rights fell by the wayside and when the 744 staffing was expanded and the 747 freighters were displaced, the green book guys moved into the whale in large numbers. In the top 1/3 of the whale captains there are only 12 red book guys remaining. In fact, if you trace the militancy of Carl back in time, you can find how unhinged he got right around the time the green book guys took over the top half of the whale captain category list.
The same effect happened to a lesser degree at UAL/CAL. After the merger, it took three years for the SLI to finish up. During that time, UAL management was replacing 757's with 737 NG's. (sound familiar) Only the UAL side 757's were leaving the fleet and the CAL side got the 737 NG's. Remember when everyone was talking about 2005 hires at CAL getting 757 bids? Well that is what caused it.
After the SLI the virtual fence came down and now the vast majority of Captain bids (around 80+%) are going to former UAL pilots. Those CAL guys who got those bids early will now either bid off or be stuck at the bottom of the list for years.
So the East pilots have this temporary fence that is working in their favor now. Under their old contract, an upgrade from A-330 FO to A-320 Captain would yield a pay increase of about $15,000 per year. If that same pilot had stayed as an A-330 FO and obtained the Delta contract his raise would have been about $55,000 per year. In fact, he would have been making more than his A-3300 Captain under the LCC contract. Maybe that fourth stripe is worth it.
The bottom line is that all fences expire. These short term gains for the East pilots came at a cost of hundreds of thousands of dollars in lost wages. When the final list with AMR is done whatever advantage these guys have will melt away.
So I understand that sometimes upgrades to higher paying positions are like crack; people covet this for so long it clouds their vision of the future. Real gains are made through the contract. The East pilots would have retained most of their attrition with the Nicolau award. Even their own analysis shows the MAXIMUM delay in upgrade to Captain was two years with the Nicolau award vs. standalone. Simply getting a Delta contract would have given instant upgrade economics to their entire list. Even much more than that. Now they have to be happy with a handful of guys upgrading every month. Again, that bonus will run out soon.
So you are right it is more complicated. The bottom line is that they lost a bunch of money they will never get back. Whatever short term advantage they have is soon to be lost. Those lost years will never be won back.
Alfa,
I mostly agree with your interpretation of the fences but I fail to see any "gains" made by either the East or the West side of USAIR. Both in what I have read and also from your above post. Actually the only "winner" I see out of that mess was USAIR management prolonging BK wages for a decade.
Scoop