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Quote: Setback, maybe. Major, nope.
Fair point I guess. I’ll say major if you were going to get hired, just an inconvenience if you were counting on the flow.
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Quote: My crystal ball says attrition will decrease in the next few years at Envoy. Captains with 12+ years 121 and a ton of PIC time will be much more likely to leave than the 5 year flow who is barely competitive at a major. Also, they will be much less likely to leave for an LCC knowing American is right around the corner. Not sure why so many people think that majors are going to start hiring everyone with a pulse any day now. The mass retirements at American won’t be much of a factor for street hires anyway considering they get a large portion of new hires from flow, and the majors are much more likely to consolidate fleet types etc than to triple hiring. Folks on here keep claiming that the 9 year flow for a new will really be less than 6. Caution to potential applicants, this magical 30% decrease is more wishful thinking than anything else. The actual numbers are much less. My flow time according to Alpa at hire was 5.5 years. Now after over two years it is 5.3. Even if you disregard the temporary increase of flow from 25 to 29 a month, that comes out to a 3% decrease in flow due to attrition. The effects of attrition decrease as one moves up the list, so you could overestimate again and say that it would double by the time you flow bringing you to around a 6% decrease in flow. If you start at 9 years that brings you to around 8.5 years to flow. These estimates are at least loosely based on actual numbers and contractual requirements. If you want to base things on your own expectations of the company giving away more flow or the majors going crazy hiring low time pilots then be my guest, but just know what risk you are taking assuming such things.
That is also a very valid point of view.
My gut feeling is that the 1-2 year of service group will keep seeing high attrition due to longer reserves, low flight time first year etc. 3-4 yos might go up a bit, since they might qualify for the LCC/heavy cargo mins and the future 3-4 yos will be further away from the flow than the 2015-2016 hires, but the 5+ group is more likely to stay put for the flow.
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Quote: My crystal ball says attrition will decrease in the next few years at Envoy. Captains with 12+ years 121 and a ton of PIC time will be much more likely to leave than the 5 year flow who is barely competitive at a major. Also, they will be much less likely to leave for an LCC knowing American is right around the corner. Not sure why so many people think that majors are going to start hiring everyone with a pulse any day now. The mass retirements at American won’t be much of a factor for street hires anyway considering they get a large portion of new hires from flow, and the majors are much more likely to consolidate fleet types etc than to triple hiring. Folks on here keep claiming that the 9 year flow for a new will really be less than 6. Caution to potential applicants, this magical 30% decrease is more wishful thinking than anything else. The actual numbers are much less. My flow time according to Alpa at hire was 5.5 years. Now after over two years it is 5.3. Even if you disregard the temporary increase of flow from 25 to 29 a month, that comes out to a 3% decrease in flow due to attrition. The effects of attrition decrease as one moves up the list, so you could overestimate again and say that it would double by the time you flow bringing you to around a 6% decrease in flow. If you start at 9 years that brings you to around 8.5 years to flow. These estimates are at least loosely based on actual numbers and contractual requirements. If you want to base things on your own expectations of the company giving away more flow or the majors going crazy hiring low time pilots then be my guest, but just know what risk you are taking assuming such things.
That x.xx "time to AA" that Alpa puts out isn't your flow time from today it's your flow time from hire date. That means in the time you've been here your projected flow date has gotten closer than it was when you were hired. The day you flow it will match your years at the company.
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Quote: That x.xx "time to AA" that Alpa puts out isn't your flow time from today it's your flow time from hire date. That means in the time you've been here your projected flow date has gotten closer than it was when you were hired. The day you flow it will match your years at the company.
If my post made it seem like I wasn’t aware of this, then I must be depressingly bad at getting my point across.
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Quote: If my post made it seem like I wasn’t aware of this, then I must be depressingly bad at getting my point across.

..........
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Quote: My crystal ball says attrition will decrease in the next few years at Envoy. Captains with 12+ years 121 and a ton of PIC time will be much more likely to leave than the 5 year flow who is barely competitive at a major. Also, they will be much less likely to leave for an LCC knowing American is right around the corner. Not sure why so many people think that majors are going to start hiring everyone with a pulse any day now. The mass retirements at American won’t be much of a factor for street hires anyway considering they get a large portion of new hires from flow, and the majors are much more likely to consolidate fleet types etc than to triple hiring. Folks on here keep claiming that the 9 year flow for a new will really be less than 6. Caution to potential applicants, this magical 30% decrease is more wishful thinking than anything else. The actual numbers are much less. My flow time according to Alpa at hire was 5.5 years. Now after over two years it is 5.3. Even if you disregard the temporary increase of flow from 25 to 29 a month, that comes out to a 3% decrease in flow due to attrition. The effects of attrition decrease as one moves up the list, so you could overestimate again and say that it would double by the time you flow bringing you to around a 6% decrease in flow. If you start at 9 years that brings you to around 8.5 years to flow. These estimates are at least loosely based on actual numbers and contractual requirements. If you want to base things on your own expectations of the company giving away more flow or the majors going crazy hiring low time pilots then be my guest, but just know what risk you are taking assuming such things.
My flow date when hired was just over six years, now it is just over 5 years. It has come down a year in the past year. I am not a huge believe in the flow, but it does seem to be coming down for some.
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Yet another class starting this Monday. Is the 3x classes a month deal continuing for the foreseeable future?
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Quote: Yet another class starting this Monday. Is the 3x classes a month deal continuing for the foreseeable future?
My question is why do people keep coming here? The regional job pool must be drying up.
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Quote: My question is why do people keep coming here? The regional job pool must be drying up.
I think that’s what is ultimately behind a lot of the issues. Anytime you suggest another outfit, it’s either “they’ve got one foot in the grave” or “they’re interviewing for spring of 2025.” In my opinion the “regional pilot shortage” was grossly overstated and we’re entering the era of regional pilot glut. The reality is that many of the people coming through the typical 1500 hour channels are 23 years old, willing to work for nothing and accept very poor conditions just to say they’re a pilot on Tinder and get a shot at mainline. I think Envoy has clued into this, hence steering hiring towards the cadet program.
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Quote: The reality is that many of the people coming through the typical 1500 hour channels are 23 years old. I think Envoy has clued into this, hence steering hiring towards the cadet program.

Facts.......

Nothing wrong with SFS to our pilots until it’s an unstoppable bargaining & recruitment tool then we scream hell. I see a few issues with our pilot group supporting growth increases.

1. The cadets today will take the job for $30,00/yr and no bonus like guys did in the past!

2. We are made to believe the company & union then must support companies growth ambitions, and they tie it to flow! Saying no growth no flow!thus we believe growth must happen for flow to continue working. Especially for protected pilots.

Thus the CONUNDRUM we are in. No incentive for company to increase pay or change reserve rules. Win win for Co.

Am I wrong?
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