Class Drop List
#421
In a land of unicorns
Joined APC: Apr 2014
Position: Whale FO
Posts: 6,401
The higher up you are on the seniority list you are, the more of that 50% attrition will be behind you and not effect your flow. I also suspect the math you're using assumes the flow rate will remain the same as it is now (the requirements actually decrease significantly after the protected pilots are gone after this year).
You still have to get through a huge amount of new hires in late '16 and all of '17. Those earlier guys on that wave will have a sub 6 year flow... some very few might have sub 4. After those earlier guys, the number shoot up. By the time you get to '18 hires, you have to assume that all the predicted attrition is senior to them to be sub 6 years and it's worse after that.
You still have to get through a huge amount of new hires in late '16 and all of '17. Those earlier guys on that wave will have a sub 6 year flow... some very few might have sub 4. After those earlier guys, the number shoot up. By the time you get to '18 hires, you have to assume that all the predicted attrition is senior to them to be sub 6 years and it's worse after that.
If I used the numbers they flow today, it would be a 6 year flow for everyone with ZERO outside attrition. That's obviously not the case.
I told you the number a new hire is from flow today (2100ish).
Add a linear ratio of outside attrition going from 100% to 0%
Use 20 as monthly flow number (which it will be on average).
And you see just under 6 years as the result.
Optimistic - maybe. But the numbers do support it.
I personally think it'll be way less than that, there will be way more outside attrition than currently, but I don't want to open that can of worms here.
#422
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2016
Posts: 2,460
Damn it, come on, use your brain.
If I used the numbers they flow today, it would be a 6 year flow for everyone with ZERO outside attrition. That's obviously not the case.
I told you the number a new hire is from flow today (2100ish).
Add a linear ratio of outside attrition going from 100% to 0%
Use 20 as monthly flow number (which it will be on average).
And you see just under 6 years as the result.
Optimistic - maybe. But the numbers do support it.
I personally think it'll be way less than that, there will be way more outside attrition than currently, but I don't want to open that can of worms here.
If I used the numbers they flow today, it would be a 6 year flow for everyone with ZERO outside attrition. That's obviously not the case.
I told you the number a new hire is from flow today (2100ish).
Add a linear ratio of outside attrition going from 100% to 0%
Use 20 as monthly flow number (which it will be on average).
And you see just under 6 years as the result.
Optimistic - maybe. But the numbers do support it.
I personally think it'll be way less than that, there will be way more outside attrition than currently, but I don't want to open that can of worms here.
#423
In a land of unicorns
Joined APC: Apr 2014
Position: Whale FO
Posts: 6,401
#425
Being realistic, how much can the training department push through a month? 12-14 tops. If we are done with OCC DECs and only factor in internal upgrades, I'd say that 4-5 slots a class is a realistic number, full class of OFC would just sit waiting for the sim time. As is, the recurrents get pushed back for the lack of the sim slots.
By March there will be around 50 or less FOs left. That's enough to staff 10 ac and as is I think we'll see a full month of critical coverage on the OFC side in March.
That was my guesstimate until I actually looked at the attrition numbers. Of that number you are talking about 50+% left year one and 25% left year two. Trickle after that. It is definitely not "200 year 1, 0 last year, so let's say an average of 100 a year". This might change with the current pilot group having less seniority, making the move easier, but we'll see about that next year.
With the current attrition and flow numbers your class will flow in a bit over 7 years. If it happens earlier, I'll be happy.
By March there will be around 50 or less FOs left. That's enough to staff 10 ac and as is I think we'll see a full month of critical coverage on the OFC side in March.
With the current attrition and flow numbers your class will flow in a bit over 7 years. If it happens earlier, I'll be happy.
#426
In a land of unicorns
Joined APC: Apr 2014
Position: Whale FO
Posts: 6,401
That was my guesstimate until I actually looked at the attrition numbers. Of that number you are talking about 50+% left year one and 25% left year two. Trickle after that. It is definitely not "200 year 1, 0 last year, so let's say an average of 100 a year". This might change with the current pilot group having less seniority, making the move easier, but we'll see about that next year.
With the current attrition and flow numbers your class will flow in a bit over 7 years. If it happens earlier, I'll be happy.
With the current attrition and flow numbers your class will flow in a bit over 7 years. If it happens earlier, I'll be happy.
If I flow in 7 years, I'm very happy. I'll still have ~25 years at American.
#427
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2018
Position: Resigned
Posts: 1,547
3 years sounds unrealistic but from hire date that’s possible for guys who bid to sr bases on the 145. It will be better for those who make ORD or NYC work but still a major career setback compared to 175 easy street.
#428
On Reserve
Joined APC: Dec 2018
Posts: 12
#430
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2015
Posts: 217
My crystal ball says attrition will decrease in the next few years at Envoy. Captains with 12+ years 121 and a ton of PIC time will be much more likely to leave than the 5 year flow who is barely competitive at a major. Also, they will be much less likely to leave for an LCC knowing American is right around the corner. Not sure why so many people think that majors are going to start hiring everyone with a pulse any day now. The mass retirements at American won’t be much of a factor for street hires anyway considering they get a large portion of new hires from flow, and the majors are much more likely to consolidate fleet types etc than to triple hiring. Folks on here keep claiming that the 9 year flow for a new will really be less than 6. Caution to potential applicants, this magical 30% decrease is more wishful thinking than anything else. The actual numbers are much less. My flow time according to Alpa at hire was 5.5 years. Now after over two years it is 5.3. Even if you disregard the temporary increase of flow from 25 to 29 a month, that comes out to a 3% decrease in flow due to attrition. The effects of attrition decrease as one moves up the list, so you could overestimate again and say that it would double by the time you flow bringing you to around a 6% decrease in flow. If you start at 9 years that brings you to around 8.5 years to flow. These estimates are at least loosely based on actual numbers and contractual requirements. If you want to base things on your own expectations of the company giving away more flow or the majors going crazy hiring low time pilots then be my guest, but just know what risk you are taking assuming such things.
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