I suppose I’m not quite as convinced as some the MDs are going to disappear the same way the DC8 did, especially in the next few years.

Given lift needs and the current network (witness ANC whale crews doing MCO and DFW turns from SDF) there would almost certainly have to be a SDF 74Y domicile before that happens. And that isn’t going to happen until they did themselves out of their massive training hole...



That’s the same thought process that had Delta NYC MD88 Captain awards going to folks with less than two years on property.

I’m not particularly interested in being super junior again...but there’s ALWAYS somebody - especially those who live in domicile - willing to make that leap.

Besides, wouldn’t it be great to have the option?

10 years from now a 2014 hire will be under 1000 on the senority list. Easily a Captain.

I agree with Boiler, very good chance a 2014 hire can hold Captain by the end of 2020. Whether or not it is worth taking first available upgrade is a different story. I for one have no interest in sitting on the bottom of a domestic fleet.

And under 2 years Fedex 757, 4 years Airbus. I have several friends at Fedex who have been there 10+ years, one almost 15, could of easily been WB captain by now. But his QOL, his vacation, his kids are more important than money and never wants to move to MEM, which living in base is probably the only way to have a semi decent life as a junior Captain. The proverbial discussion that many of us in this industry believe: “If you can’t live very comfortable with $225k-$250k (as a senior FO), maybe a bit more, well, something is not right”. I am totally with G550, life as an FO is very good, and luckily the vast majority of our Captains are a pleasure to fly with, great folks, hence why many here have no power trip and no desire to degrade our QOL. But for those that do want it, for whatever reason, it will be certainly very nice to have the option.

I am in the middle between you folks. Yes, we very much need the lift badly right now, and it’s not like we are getting a massive amount of airplanes. I always like to look at worst case scenario, although I am not doom and gloom. Worst case, we take the 40 new planes and park 37 MD’s, still net gain of 3. Until they announce an MD replacement, I will not be convinced all 40 new planes are net growth. One argument to make is the MD carries a lot of domestic stuff, take out all the domestic MD capacity, replace with whale? Most likely not, probably too expensive. Another scenario might be, again worst case, use all the new whales purely international, park the MD’s and bring back some 76’s into domestic duty. Again until MD replacement announced, I will plan for worst case, which I think it isn’t even that bad. Heck, we might be able to secure more 76 slots, end of somewhere in the middle, end up with say 15-20 net new planes instead of the 40 net projected right now.

The one positive I see with worst case, UPSCO is small enough that going below the 250 or so planes we currently have will most likely not happen, even if we stop growing and revenue/volume flattens out (which could certainly happen), e-commerce volume does not keep growing, we are still short of lift at current levels. And with retirements and the inching up of EARLY retirements, the misery lived at Brown between 2007 and 2014 should not happen again, should being the key word.

Personally, I would be more worried being at Fedex as their flight ops is much bigger and flight being the primary engine, which is a great in good times, maybe not so good during bad. While not affecting flight yet, their aggressive nature has brought some headaches, maybe just speed bumps, maybe not. Time will tell.

I am a very Junior 747 FO at UPS and with 10 months of 2nd year pay last year and doing just 2 JA's the entire year, I made $215,000! That includes per diem!

while true, if the 2014-15 hire waits then it will just go to an even more junior crewmember.

MCO turns were for OE and the DFW turns are usually during peak which has been going on for a decade.....

74 going to DFW still as of today. It’s not just a peak thing.

Also, just because you wouldn’t necessarily take the upgrade right away doesn’t mean other people wouldn’t. Obviously there are many variables at play but if things are consistent you could see a 2014 hire upgrade within the next two years. It’s simple math.

If someone adds an internal rec through the system, does that appear anywhere on the UPS application site?

No, I don’t believe it does.