Cujo, did you get that info from talkairline, or is it actually confirmed?

Even if the flow takes 7-9 years, wouldn’t envoy still be the best choice for a single person under the age of 30 who can drive to ORD or DFW? I imagine that’s why even with lower pay envoy isn’t struggling to fill classes because the “long” flow still has value.

In 9 years there won't be any point to the flow. Most of the hiring will be done by then.

Wow. So no-one should start this career in 5 years time? Because in 9 years when they might be competitive for a major, "the hiring will be done" and there's no point to go.

Get real.

In nine years this industry likely will not look like it does now. A new hire today, heck, the new hires in the last three years, have no guarantee they will actually flow.

Sacrificing pay and QOL for a smoke and mirrors flow that MAY be there in six to nine years is not worth it.

That could well be. But saying in 9 years flowing is not worth it is absolute horsesh*t.

Not sure if you're deranged, but nobody is saying that starting an airline career today is not worth it. What they are saying is that with flows projected at nearly a decade, the flow to AA is worthless at this point. The hiring is not bottomless; American won't forever be hiring at approximately 80 per month. The flow agreement formula for the majority of the unprotected pilots will turn that flow and turn it into an ebb.

No, that's exactly what he said.

In 9 years there won't be any point to the flow. Most of the hiring will be done by then.

So he's saying there is no point to flow in 9 years, because you will be behind a big hiring wave.
That's just bullcrap.

Where is the lie though?
You are perfectly parroting what everyone is saying, yet you arrive at an entirely different conclusion. Yes, the hiring wave will be over. Yes, flows will slow down. No, it's not good for a pilot's career to get stuck at the very bottom of a seniority list when hiring goes stagnant... assuming the flow even pans out after 9 years. That's forever in the aviation industry.

Why then, dera, is it "just bullcrap?" In your opinion, why is the flow still valuable at 9 years for a newhire today?

So you are saying a pilot career will be pretty bad for anyone starting in the industry in 5 years or so, because they will be at the bottom when hiring goes stagnant at the majors?