I think if you really want to know the numbers, you can also add in the “departures” that you find on the monthly emails from ALPA. It’s not exact but i can give some better numbers for estimation.

A quick look shows (on average) 6 flows per month, 3-5 hired at other airlines, 1 retiree, and 2-5 “resigned”. So at first glance, 11-16 people leave a month!

BUT- most resignees leave in the first few months, so if you’re calculating for the flow, these pilots won’t help you after your third month in the company. Based off current hiring markets, I imagine that 3-5 guys ahead of you will get hired (outside of flows) every month. So maybe plan for 9-10 people ahead of you leaving every month until you get senior (at which point people start waiting for the flow and you’re back to 6/mo). It’s a super complicated estimation and anyone who tells you they can predict 5-6-7-8 years in the future is a liar. As I ramble, I remember that this has been discussed ad naseum in older forums, but it needs to stay towards the forefront of every discussion.

Long story short, there IS a flow. Maybe you’ll see it, maybe you’ll get hired before, maybe you’ll get abducted by aliens and none of this will matter.

Questions I would want answered as a new hire- How long is upgrade time? How much time is PDT flying per month? What’s our average days off per month (after interface)? What Is interface? What’s the average amount of “Junior mans” used per year?




The one thing this does not take into account is attrition and retirements. But if a recruiter is telling you that you will have a 5-6 year flow, well that is BS. Essentially their math is based off of you being part of the statistic of leaving Piedmont before you would flow. You would need roughly 200 some people senior to you to leave within 5 years. PDT only has 694 Pilots. You really think 1/3 of them are going to retire and or leave in 5 years? If so, then you'll have your 5-year flow. That's quite the bet though.

Do the math, it's not hard. But a new hire today is looking at probably 7.5 years for flow. Sure a lot of factors can change this, but the flow will in no way be 5 years from date of hire today.[/QUOTE]

When AA announced the flow program 5 years ago, they calculated Piedmont's flow at 4 to 6 years. Many people (including some of the recruiters/managers at the time) HOWLED and said the math didn't work, and that would never happen. Now in 2020 the flow is 4.8 years and all 2014 pilots are at AA - exactly what AA said would happen.

While I appreciate everyone's math - and you're not wrong based on the limited information you have- recognize that AA analysts who spend A LOT of time on this are looking at the industry as a whole, flow rates and attrition patterns of other carriers, hiring and retirements, etc. Piedmont's flow estimate for new hires in 2020 (Jan - June) is 5 to 6 years. It may creep up the second half of the year, but there will be better numbers in a few months. AA has been getting it right for years, there's just no reason to think they are wrong this time.

Thanks for your question. Work rules are negotiated, obviously. Our vice president of Flight Ops addressed many questions about schedules and upcoming changes in a series of podcasts. You can find them here:



https://mypiedmont.aa.com/index.php/...-steve-keefer/

No reason except for elementary math and a general idea of how attrition works at this place.


I typed a long response to this but ended up deleting it. Just going to come back to the fact that you think there are a group of "analysts" at AA who are sitting there crunching honest numbers on flow times for the prospective CFI's out there considering PDT. All that time flying sideways must have altered your thinking Thanks for the chuckle with my morning coffee

What are the average days off for a line holder at Piedmont?

English please!

How many Piedmont flow accountants does AA have on the payroll? Does AA have additional flow accountants dedicated to PSA and Envoy, or do those airlines have to share the same flow analysis resources?

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You guys want english ! I give it to you in plain english I got screwed !

What are the schedules like in comparison to other regionals? most guys don't do 4 on 2 off... That scares applicants away

My guess is one intern, windows 98, bag of Doritos, and a biggie Mountain Dew for analyst resources.