Does the shorter look back help the company fly more RJs by eliminating the peak lockdown period from the look-back?

It could be that 100% of a larger number still lets them fly more RJs than 120% of a smaller number.

If UAX is scheduled to fly less than 40% of their same month 2019 level, nothing changes. It’s still 120% United NB block with the 12 month look back. If they are scheduled to fly 40% or greater than the same month 2019, then they are restricted to less United NB block on a same month for month basis. Basically, when things start to recover, UAX block hours will be reduced from 120% to <100% for the duration of the TA (up to 2 years).

Thing is, from what I’ve heard UAX is already above 40%.

The summary for the agreement said that it would have forced UAX changes to comply with scope of it was in effect during July, aug, September

The union put out a slide in one of their video Q&A sessions discussing the scope deal. Pre-COVID, UAX usually ran around 80-90% mainline block hours. That is because they were scoped out on 70/76 seaters and United only wanted so many 50 seaters. With United flying a full schedule, the allowable big rj’s and 50 seaters didn’t ring the bell. Since all of this hit, the regionals have ripped the bell off of the wall. In the last few months UAX flying has far exceeded United, and had the plan been in effect, the scope restrictions would have kicked in. Now that the TA has passed (providing that UAX is at 40% 2019 levels), UAX can’t exceed mainline block hours. Going forward UAX hours will have to be reduced, United hours increased to a level above UAX, or a combination of the two so that UAX levels don’t exceed that of United.

I think a big impact on the yes votes was the fact that this TA broke the historical model of "UAX hires while mainline fires".

Who’s hiring!! (Laugh)

UAX hiring historically tended to start up much sooner after the "trigger event" and would occur while UA was furloughing.

Looks like that's getting pre-empted this time, good on UA-ALPA.

or not

furlough 2000 in June 2021 while I could see SKYW to start hiring again at that time.

Time will tell.

The future for UAX or United is far from set in stone. COVID will have a long lasting impact on how the airlines operate, and on how big they are. There is a good chance that the 756 gets phased out as the max comes back, and there is also a good chance that the 50 seat fleet and the number of regionals flying them see a further reduction. Both fleets are getting older and are to the point of aging out. United could be serious about the 50 seaters being all but gone by the end of this, they could end up buying something like the A220 later on and freeing up a few more big rj’s, or a judge could alter the current scope language in bankruptcy. Time will tell.