Future of United Express

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07-31-2020 | 06:09 AM

#211

BrazilBusDriver

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Quote:

Originally Posted by GA2Jets

My condolences to those at Expressjet who are getting the news everyone fears today.

I wonder to myself, is this where the UAX carrier cuts end? Or is Xjet just the canary in the coal mine?

Using that analogy, I think Trans States might have been the canary in the coal mine. Expressjet is the first miner going down. Either way, it sucks for both groups (I was in the former).

07-31-2020 | 06:12 AM

#212

Tom Bradys Cat

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Quote:

Originally Posted by idlethrust

Expect an announcement from United in the coming weeks
We only need one 200 operator. We will go with the cheapest one.
Then we only need one 700 operator—-so on and so on
They will continue this shuffle until they dwindle down to the size they want to be

Email said united signed a contract with c5 to 2026

07-31-2020 | 06:17 AM

#213

idlethrust

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Tom Bradys Cat

Email said united signed a contract with c5 to 2026

They had a contract with Expressjet too. In these times it’s not worth the paper it’s written on . Means nothing , just a formality.

07-31-2020 | 07:02 AM

#214

DarkSideMoon

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Quote:

Originally Posted by idlethrust

They had a contract with Expressjet too. In these times it’s not worth the paper it’s written on . Means nothing , just a formality.

It’s not hard to get out of a contract when you own the sub contractor.

07-31-2020 | 07:30 AM

#215

rickair7777

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From: Engines Turn or People Swim

Quote:

Originally Posted by idlethrust

They had a contract with Expressjet too. In these times it’s not worth the paper it’s written on . Means nothing , just a formality.

Only if you're owned. Otherwise you have to buy the subcontractor out on whatever terms they want, or try to abrogate the contact in Ch.11 (no guarantees, it's up to the judge).

If you employ both owned and contractor regionals, it's not going to make sense to pay the contractor to not fly so you can also pay the WO (or partially owned) to fly. Obviously cheaper to keep the guy you're contractually stuck with anyway.

Don't make the mistake of assuming that working for an owned regional gives you any kind of special status (other than maybe nonrev priority). It's usually the opposite at crunch time.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DarkSideMoon

It’s not hard to get out of a contract when you own the sub contractor.

Yup.

07-31-2020 | 07:45 AM

#216

GA2Jets

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Quote:

Originally Posted by idlethrust

ZW is in the same boat as EV, very top heavy , a lot of 15-20 year lifers left.
Very expensive pilot group
gonna be interesting

You seem very bearish on ZW all the time. What's with that? Not that it's definitely going to survive or anything but still, you always seem convinced of the worst.

07-31-2020 | 07:53 AM

#217

ZeroTT

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Quote:

Originally Posted by GA2Jets

You seem very bearish on ZW all the time. What's with that? Not that it's definitely going to survive or anything but still, you always seem convinced of the worst.

flying a disfavored airframe with only one contract. It’s just less stable

as for subcontractor vs WO ... all depends on the contract with the sub. The details of how fast, how far and with what notice a major can draw down are critical. If 180 day notice is required some smart people were giving notice 6 months ago

07-31-2020 | 08:03 AM

#218

idlethrust

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Quote:

Originally Posted by GA2Jets

You seem very bearish on ZW all the time. What's with that? Not that it's definitely going to survive or anything but still, you always seem convinced of the worst.

Nooe, not at all , however I don’t live in a fantasy world either .
In order for ZW to survive this someone is gonna have to get down on all 4s, bend over and go under the desk with a Bibb on if you catch my drift . It’s gonna be tough . Adding the 700 isn’t a lifesaver . Mesa , SkyWest and gojet all fly it too so once again cost will be the determining factor as shown with c5 and ev . With those four , it would be a safe assumption that Zw’s cost and payroll are probably the highest .

07-31-2020 | 08:03 AM

#219

Gone Flying

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From: UNA

Quote:

Originally Posted by GA2Jets

You seem very bearish on ZW all the time. What's with that? Not that it's definitely going to survive or anything but still, you always seem convinced of the worst.

I mean didn’t AWAC sign a 4 year deal with UAL in early 2017? Not sure when the 4 years starts/ends (somewhere between Q1 2021- Q1 2022) but I don’t know how bullish I’d be right now. I really hope I’m wrong, I’ve got a few friends at AWAC and crews have always been great to me. Hopefully things turn around before COVID Claims another airline

07-31-2020 | 08:29 AM

#220

ZeroTT

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4 year contract is only good if

1) there aren’t meaningful escape clauses
2) United isn’t willing to play hardball and just break the contract leaving AWAC’s estate to pursue them in court