The real point is if every flight was full we would still be losing money. You’re getting your hopes up when they probably shouldn’t be.

I am thinking and planning on being out 2 years minimum. Realistically 3.

My experience is identical to yours. The real question is what prices are these people paying. Are these 'real' business and first class passengers returning paying fees like we expect for such seats? Or are these passengers that would normally fly coach just noticing a $50 upgrade?

I have a side hustle that pays for travel. I regularly fly AA to slowly build miles. When I get the flight booked at a corporate rate (roughly $89-$199) I opt to pay for the upgrade out of pocket (never more than $89). So a business class NB seat from a hub to a high frequency destination city (business and leisure) is bringing < $300 in revenue to AA.... It's not what you think

I think you are about right. And in 2023 AA will start doing some hiring. My crystal ball says. . .

I hope the same parameters that allowed record profits the last few years will allow a fast recovery. I say we will bounce back 4-6 quarters after covid is no longer a concern. By all available evidence, a vaccine is more likely than worldwide herd immunity.


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Butts is seats is what matters for jobs, at least in the short term. It requires more pilots to fly 500 passengers at $10 a piece than 10 at $500 a piece.

Rebuilding consumer confidence is a big factor as well in my opinion. A family of four decides to fly for the first time since the pandemic started, and lives to tell about it. They’ll tell their friends and family, and so on and so on. At least at my airline, some of the cheap fares are for that very objective.

I agree with your point but my comment was was in reply to a string of posts about how much cash AA has left as it spins toward bankruptcy. Just because there's butts in seats, it doesn't necessarily mean AA is making money. I was just spit-balling an example as how pangolin and I could be observing the same thing yet it not being an indication of first class and business class passengers 'returning'. And then RhinoBallAuto rolls in right behind me with a real life scenario that exists that is almost identical to my "spit-ball" scenario.

But yes. Butts in seats is a good thing.

The purpose of a vaccine IS herd immunity. Of course for that you need two things to happen:

1. A vaccine that actually works well.
2. Mass acceptance of that vaccine.

Neither of those are guaranteed,