How long will it last?

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10-05-2020 | 04:59 PM

#11

Saabs

Gets Weekends Off

Joined: Jul 2011

Posts: 2,450

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From: Airbus button pusher

Quote:

Originally Posted by pangolin

You missed the point. Prior to the last few weeks I had no problem getting first class on a deadhead or commute. Now it's hard. First class passengers seem to be returning.

The real point is if every flight was full we would still be losing money. You’re getting your hopes up when they probably shouldn’t be.

10-05-2020 | 07:00 PM

#12

wiz5422

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Joined: Sep 2010

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I am thinking and planning on being out 2 years minimum. Realistically 3.

10-05-2020 | 07:27 PM

#13

highfarfast

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Joined: Nov 2016

Posts: 2,607

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Quote:

Originally Posted by pangolin

You missed the point. Prior to the last few weeks I had no problem getting first class on a deadhead or commute. Now it's hard. First class passengers seem to be returning.

My experience is identical to yours. The real question is what prices are these people paying. Are these 'real' business and first class passengers returning paying fees like we expect for such seats? Or are these passengers that would normally fly coach just noticing a $50 upgrade?

10-05-2020 | 07:35 PM

#14

RhinoBallAuto

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Joined: Oct 2014

Posts: 385

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From: Recovering OBOGS addict

Quote:

Originally Posted by pangolin

You missed the point. Prior to the last few weeks I had no problem getting first class on a deadhead or commute. Now it's hard. First class passengers seem to be returning.

I have a side hustle that pays for travel. I regularly fly AA to slowly build miles. When I get the flight booked at a corporate rate (roughly $89-$199) I opt to pay for the upgrade out of pocket (never more than $89). So a business class NB seat from a hub to a high frequency destination city (business and leisure) is bringing < $300 in revenue to AA.... It's not what you think

10-05-2020 | 08:27 PM

#15

TransWorld

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Joined: Aug 2016

Posts: 6,995

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From: Fully Retired

Quote:

Originally Posted by Huell

I’m guessing 2 ... but I am an optimist and such.

I think you are about right. And in 2023 AA will start doing some hiring. My crystal ball says. . .

10-06-2020 | 04:23 AM

#16

bababouey

Line Holder

Joined: Mar 2014

Posts: 898

Likes: 47

I hope the same parameters that allowed record profits the last few years will allow a fast recovery. I say we will bounce back 4-6 quarters after covid is no longer a concern. By all available evidence, a vaccine is more likely than worldwide herd immunity.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

10-06-2020 | 05:37 AM

#17

ClncClarence

Config 3

Joined: Oct 2014

Posts: 1,292

Likes: 210

Quote:

Originally Posted by highfarfast

Butts is seats is what matters for jobs, at least in the short term. It requires more pilots to fly 500 passengers at $10 a piece than 10 at $500 a piece.

10-06-2020 | 06:33 AM

#18

nuball5

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Joined: Aug 2007

Posts: 2,087

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ClncClarence

Butts is seats is what matters for jobs, at least in the short term. It requires more pilots to fly 500 passengers at $10 a piece than 10 at $500 a piece.

Rebuilding consumer confidence is a big factor as well in my opinion. A family of four decides to fly for the first time since the pandemic started, and lives to tell about it. They’ll tell their friends and family, and so on and so on. At least at my airline, some of the cheap fares are for that very objective.

10-06-2020 | 09:37 AM

#19

highfarfast

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Joined: Nov 2016

Posts: 2,607

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ClncClarence

Butts is seats is what matters for jobs, at least in the short term. It requires more pilots to fly 500 passengers at $10 a piece than 10 at $500 a piece.

I agree with your point but my comment was was in reply to a string of posts about how much cash AA has left as it spins toward bankruptcy. Just because there's butts in seats, it doesn't necessarily mean AA is making money. I was just spit-balling an example as how pangolin and I could be observing the same thing yet it not being an indication of first class and business class passengers 'returning'. And then RhinoBallAuto rolls in right behind me with a real life scenario that exists that is almost identical to my "spit-ball" scenario.

But yes. Butts in seats is a good thing.

10-06-2020 | 09:41 AM

#20

Excargodog

Perennial Reserve

Joined: Jan 2018

Posts: 14,253

Likes: 257

Quote:

Originally Posted by bababouey

By all available evidence, a vaccine is more likely than worldwide herd immunity.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

The purpose of a vaccine IS herd immunity. Of course for that you need two things to happen:

1. A vaccine that actually works well.
2. Mass acceptance of that vaccine.

Neither of those are guaranteed,