Transfer of A/C to PSA/PDT update - only 4 CRJ's transferring in 2016. 175 deliveries will offset any 140/145 retirement/transfers. Net loss planned for all of 2016 will be 4 hulls. Previous plan a month ago was net loss of 6 for the year. Initially it was way more.

Minor, but keeping 2 more for 2016 than previously planned. Thats another 10 extra CA seats..

So basically the past massive bleeding of aircraft lost, cancelling out our flow and attrition (causing stagnation) has stopped, plus we should have 300+ flow and all other attrition next year. We will lose 400+ pilots next year easily if the the flow holds up and only have a loss of 20 CA seats for the year. Thats a huge amount of movement if you time it right.

I'll add another, it is minor but AAG has requested 1 additional hull for the soon to be announced MIA satellite base.

Word I've heard is that you guys will likely keep those 700s a while longer because the company is supposedly going to exercise more 900 options for PSA. I have a feeling that if we take delivery of your 700s, it will be at the loss of our 200s. Because by that time, I don't see how we (or really anyone) is going to be able to hire the amount of pilots needed.

So where are the vacancies? And did the guys that got awarded on the last one started class yet?

I'd imagine with the holidays the vacancies are done for the year. Guys are already in class from the August one and we are still waiting for the flow plan from Oct, but I'm guessing those guys will be in dec-jan classes.

Last I heard is that here will be another vacancy this month. We'll see if is true...

My best estimate for 2016 from their information is they will hire 750 next year. We get 375. They estimate 100-150 furloughs may return. That leaves a worst case next year of 225 flowing. This is 5 more than what's required to prevent stepping up above pay step 12. It also jives with their advertisement of at least 200 upgrades next year.

2017 should be another 375 to flow, but no more recalls; but I bet they will withhold to 30 each month - 360 for the year - and just have to catch up in the aggregate.

That's 600 of our CA's gone in two years by flow to AA. Doesn't include the guys going elsewhere.

It's fair to say we are on track for their 2.5/6 to be a really good estimate.

If they plan on bringing 750 through next year, minus 150 recalls, that would leave ~600 flow + new hires. Shouldn't that mean about 300 flows from envoy next year, not 225?

Again, 375 would be a little more than 31/month. 225 would be just under 19/month, both as averages. There WILL be outside attrition at Envoy to be sure, but how many is a wildcard. I think at least 10/month would be conservative.

In other words, Envoy will need 30-40 pilots/month to maintain current staffing. Each and every month. It's what I've been saying all along. As for ANYTHING past 2016, that is simply a projection or as you say an "estimate". In fact, AAG makes no guarantees about any specifics beyond 2016 other than assumptive projections. Anyone who comes to Envoy with confidence in upgrading in 2.5 years or flowing to AA in 6 is misguided IMO. To be fair, the same could be said for any regional making any long-term claims of certainty.

Even next year for Envoy, the range of flows by your own admission varies by up to 40% based on up to 150 senior Envoy pilots who may or may not flow.

Don't certain recalls count as new hires for our flow purposes? I thought this is what they said recently.