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Old 11-06-2015, 08:03 AM
  #31  
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Originally Posted by eaglefly View Post
Again, 375 would be a little more than 31/month. 225 would be just under 19/month, both as averages. There WILL be outside attrition at Envoy to be sure, but how many is a wildcard. I think at least 10/month would be conservative.

In other words, Envoy will need 30-40 pilots/month to maintain current staffing. Each and every month. It's what I've been saying all along. As for ANYTHING past 2016, that is simply a projection or as you say an "estimate". In fact, AAG makes no guarantees about any specifics beyond 2016 other than assumptive projections. Anyone who comes to Envoy with confidence in upgrading in 2.5 years or flowing to AA in 6 is misguided IMO. To be fair, the same could be said for any regional making any long-term claims of certainty.

Even next year for Envoy, the range of flows by your own admission varies by up to 40% based on up to 150 senior Envoy pilots who may or may not flow.
I don't think there is any viable plan to maintain "current" staffing levels long term. Right now we are WAY overstaffed. Everyone here knows it. We have over 600 pilots on RSV. We have zero time lines, part time lines and very low time line values right now. Lot of People are getting min guarantee to not do much flying. Plus we will require approximately 40 fewer crew due to losing 4 aircraft in 2016. There will be a LOT of training from now, throughout 2016 though with displacements, upgrades, and E175, so a lot of that overstaffing can be absorbed in training bubbles though. It seems they may be keeping the staffing front loaded this way due to the plan of losing so many via flow for the next couple years? Otherwise they would have just furloughed a year ago.

If they can hire 1/4 of what we lose we will still be fine by having fewer reserves, and upping the line values closer to normal again.. for 2016 at least. We could probably get by just fine losing 400 and hiring 100 if that's all we get. Then part way through 2017 we would be closer to optimally staffed and it will get to be a problem beyond that if they still can't hire enough.. As the flow and movement start to pick up though, more people will come, it's already happening. I was just in the schoolhouse for 6 weeks and saw the biggest classes I have seen in years. Things are just barely starting to turn somewhat positive again too, so "if" things do get better in 2016, like they "should", those class sizes will grow beyond what they are now. (currently at 90 new hires year to date) *which 75% of them are from mid summer on, now that things are getting better and the shrinkage has stopped people are starting to show up again..

Last edited by RyanP; 11-06-2015 at 08:24 AM.
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Old 11-06-2015, 08:20 AM
  #32  
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Originally Posted by RyanP View Post
I don't think there is any plan to maintain "current" staffing levels. Right now we are WAY overstaffed. Everyone here knows it. We have over 600 pilots on RSV. We have zero time lines, and part time lines and very low unproductive line values right now. Plus we will require approximately 40 fewer crew due to losing 4 aircraft in 2016. It seems they may be keeping the staffing front loaded this way due to the plan of losing so many via flow for the next couple years.

If they can hire 1/4 of what we lose we will still be ok by having fewer reserves, and upping the line values to normal again.. for 2016 at least. We could probably get by just fine losing 400 and hiring 100 if that's all we get. Then part way through 2017 we would be closer to optimally staffed and it will get to be a problem beyond that if they still can't hire enough.. As the flow and movement start to pick up though, more people will come, it's already happening. I was just in the schoolhouse for 6 weeks and saw the biggest classes I have seen in years. Things are just barely starting to turn somewhat positive again too, so "if" things do get better in 2016, like they "should", those class sizes will grow beyond what they are now.
How does being overstaffed equate to upgrading new-hire Envoy pilot of today in 2.5 years ?

If anything, your argument angles more toward a carrier that will shrink to right-size itself through attrition over the next 18-24 months and that means a slower upgrade for the Envoy new-hire of today. A smaller Envoy means fewer captains positions and once that proper balance is reached through contraction.

Again, I think coming to any certainties about what Envoy new-hires can expect at Envoy 2.5 years from now (upgrade) let alone 6 years from now (flow to AA) is misguided. Envoy can and likely will be a completely different carrier in 2-3 years, let alone 6 and the dynamics of those projections of today are total shots in the dark. I understand why they are being cultivated and sold by Envoy management and others, but that doesn't give them any more weight.

If anything, the pool of available new-hires will only shrink further and the belief Envoy will inhale most of them, I think is also misguided.
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Old 11-06-2015, 08:38 AM
  #33  
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Originally Posted by eaglefly View Post
How does being overstaffed equate to upgrading new-hire Envoy pilot of today in 2.5 years ?
I have no idea how accurate that will be. Ask Rick Wilson for his magic calculation spreadsheet formula that all the overpaid execs at AAG spent so much time with. He explained it all to me, in person, and what assumptions it uses. I asked him to explain it and told him right to his face in front of a group of people we all thought it was bogus. I don't know if 2.5 can happen, he didn't convince me with certainty, seems a bit optimistic to me and a lot of their assumptions need to come true. I think it WILL happen if things continue as planned (eventually) though, just may not be right away. It will take a little time for the ball to get rolling.. and yes obviously new hires are needed. Which we are getting the target number now, or close to it, supposedly.

All I know is there is about to be a hell of a lot of movement. 400+ pilots leaving a year from here is predicted via flow and outside attrition. (barring some major disaster). That number will decrease over time as the flow percentage goes down after we get through about 80% of us, but that is where it is about at for 2016-2018 with flow and attrition. We have 2000ish pilots. Even "if" we shrink down to optimal staffing of 1700 or so. Very simple math, you lose 1000+ pilots over the next 3 years, puts a new hire around upgrade on the list, even if shrinking some. Upgrades at historically around 60-64% seniority on the list.

I think the 1500 pilot number thrown around speculatively by pilots was before, now we aren't shrinking as much, we are holding on to our current fleet longer, and we've taken on more block hours. It may come to that in time, who knows, but for 2016 we now know it's well more than 1500 pilots they need here.

Last edited by RyanP; 11-06-2015 at 08:57 AM.
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Old 11-06-2015, 09:09 AM
  #34  
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Originally Posted by RyanP View Post
I have no idea how accurate that will be. Ask Rick Wilson for his magic calculation spreadsheet formula that all the overpaid execs at AAG spent so much time with. He explained it all to me, in person, and what assumptions it uses. I asked him to explain it and told him right to his face in front of a group of people we all thought it was bogus. I don't know if 2.5 can happen, he didn't convince me with certainty, seems a bit optimistic to me and a lot of their assumptions need to come true. I think it WILL happen if things continue as planned (eventually) though, just may not be right away. It will take a little time for the ball to get rolling.. and yes obviously new hires are needed. Which we are getting the target number now, or close to it, supposedly.
I think it's a healthy attitude to take managements claims with skepticism. More should do that. The present numbers though if they are meeting target is a rate that ensures contraction based on outside attrition projections, but as you seemed to imply before, contraction is the plan for Envoy as you are overstaffed. Again, I fail to see how an airline that plans to contract can generate fast upgrades unless the required number of new-hires are met consistently month after month to meet that contraction and that would be in the 30-40 range. Anything less means contraction, which as you seem to imply is indeed the plan.


Originally Posted by RyanP View Post
All I know is there is about to be a hell of a lot of movement. 400+ pilots leaving a year from here is predicted via flow and outside attrition. (barring some major disaster). That number will decrease over time as the flow percentage goes down after we get through about 80% of us, but that is where it is about at for 2016-2018 with flow and attrition. We have 2000ish pilots. Even "if" we shrink down to optimal staffing of 1700 or so. Very simple math, you lose 1000+ pilots over the next 3 years, puts a new hire around upgrade on the list, even if shrinking some. Upgrades at historically around 60-64% seniority on the list.

I think the 1500 pilot number thrown around speculatively by pilots was before, now we aren't shrinking as much, we are holding on to our current fleet longer, and we've taken on more block hours. It may come to that in time, who knows, but for 2016 we now know it's well more than 1500 pilots they need here.
In the last few years, Envoy had 400+ annual attrition and it resulted in no bombshell advancements for Envoy pilots, in fact, quite the opposite. Start getting 35/month for 6 months or so and an increasing trend and I'd be willing to see things differently. The block hours and fleet plans have recently changed due to industry conditions and can and likely will change again in unanticipated directions for the same reasons in the future. There is a lot of fluidity in what Parker is doing as he is simply moving the house furniture around for the time being to best maximize AA feed coverage (this is good for me as feed coverage in necessary for a strong AA....at least until that model collapses and Delta's and United opposing tack proves the better long-term move).

What ends up REALLY happening in 2017, 18 or 19, etc., is really anyone's guess including both Parker and Envoy management. If Parker had his druthers, I'm sure he'd still be chocking the life out of Envoy and its pilots for not playing ball. For now, that simply isn't good business.
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Old 11-06-2015, 09:49 AM
  #35  
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Originally Posted by eaglefly View Post


In the last few years, Envoy had 400+ annual attrition and it resulted in no bombshell advancements for Envoy pilots, in fact, quite the opposite. Start getting 35/month for 6 months or so and an increasing trend and I'd be willing to see things differently. The block hours and fleet plans have recently changed due to industry conditions and can and likely will change again in unanticipated directions for the same reasons in the future. There is a lot of fluidity in what Parker is doing as he is simply moving the house furniture around for the time being to best maximize AA feed coverage (this is good for me as feed coverage in necessary for a strong AA....at least until that model collapses and Delta's and United opposing tack proves the better long-term move).

What ends up REALLY happening in 2017, 18 or 19, etc., is really anyone's guess including both Parker and Envoy management. If Parker had his druthers, I'm sure he'd still be chocking the life out of Envoy and its pilots for not playing ball. For now, that simply isn't good business.
True.. we were losing 400+ in the last few years since bankruptcy and we still all stagnated here, BUT we also shrunk from a 3200 pilot airline to a 2000 pilot airline in that timeframe. We lost the entire ATR fleet, all the remaining 135's, a bunch of 140's, some 145's and a few CRJ's plus 3 domiciles during that time which all required extra staffing and reserves. Even with all that massive loss of over 1/3rd of our airline, I managed to upgrade in 6.5yrs in the worst of it due to getting in at the front end of a massive hiring wave.

I don't see us shrinking our fleet by another 1200 pilots any time soon. That isn't in the plans, The fleet count for 2016 is flat. Things will be WAY better than they were yet the high attrition will be the same. A new hire won't see the stagnation we did.
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Old 11-06-2015, 11:18 AM
  #36  
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Originally Posted by RyanP View Post
True.. we were losing 400+ in the last few years since bankruptcy and we still all stagnated here, BUT we also shrunk from a 3200 pilot airline to a 2000 pilot airline in that timeframe. We lost the entire ATR fleet, all the remaining 135's, a bunch of 140's, some 145's and a few CRJ's plus 3 domiciles during that time which all required extra staffing and reserves. Even with all that massive loss of over 1/3rd of our airline, I managed to upgrade in 6.5yrs in the worst of it due to getting in at the front end of a massive hiring wave.

I don't see us shrinking our fleet by another 1200 pilots any time soon. That isn't in the plans, The fleet count for 2016 is flat. Things will be WAY better than they were yet the high attrition will be the same. A new hire won't see the stagnation we did.
Good luck. Again, I think any claim of what a new-hire will or will not see beyond 2016 is based on hope founded on assumptive projections.
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Old 11-06-2015, 11:37 AM
  #37  
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Originally Posted by RyanP View Post
True.. we were losing 400+ in the last few years since bankruptcy and we still all stagnated here, BUT we also shrunk from a 3200 pilot airline to a 2000 pilot airline in that timeframe. We lost the entire ATR fleet, all the remaining 135's, a bunch of 140's, some 145's and a few CRJ's plus 3 domiciles during that time which all required extra staffing and reserves. Even with all that massive loss of over 1/3rd of our airline, I managed to upgrade in 6.5yrs in the worst of it due to getting in at the front end of a massive hiring wave.

I don't see us shrinking our fleet by another 1200 pilots any time soon. That isn't in the plans, The fleet count for 2016 is flat. Things will be WAY better than they were yet the high attrition will be the same. A new hire won't see the stagnation we did.
Great write-up RyanP. It was quite sane and rational when compared to the posts of the biggest cheerleader you guys have over there.

Now, is there any chance you could head to the bar and help our cheerleading friend home? He's likely there holding court with several of his APC buddies with a giant clear glass kool-aid container. You know, the one with the big smile on it that is displayed on the Kool Aid packs?

He probably has an ALPA Nation chaser in the other hand with a red kool aid mustache as the "very sensitive" seriously pro Envoy APCers are gathered around hanging on to his every word.

It's no use having a dialogue with that guy on here. You try to address only facts and you get an immediate barfed out response with the latest company drivel. Please, drive the guy home and get him in KA (Kool Aid Anonymous) as soon as possible.
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Old 11-06-2015, 08:33 PM
  #38  
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Originally Posted by eaglefly View Post
How does being overstaffed equate to upgrading new-hire Envoy pilot of today in 2.5 years ?

If anything, your argument angles more toward a carrier that will shrink to right-size itself through attrition over the next 18-24 months and that means a slower upgrade for the Envoy new-hire of today. A smaller Envoy means fewer captains positions and once that proper balance is reached through contraction.
Let me revert back to my old job as a college math professor and try to explain how numbers work. Your humble opinion is that envoy will only be able to hire X number of pilots per month. Upgrades can be approximated as F/X=U, where F represents number of FOs and U equals months until upgrade. One can easily see that F and U have a direct correlation as F gets bigger so does U. So the logic of a shrinking pilot group will have a negative impact on upgrades only applies if there is downgrades. Pretty sure no one is saying that Envoy will have a displacements of Captains in the next year or two.
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Old 11-06-2015, 09:12 PM
  #39  
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Originally Posted by adspilot View Post
Let me revert back to my old job as a college math professor and try to explain how numbers work. Your humble opinion is that envoy will only be able to hire X number of pilots per month. Upgrades can be approximated as F/X=U, where F represents number of FOs and U equals months until upgrade. One can easily see that F and U have a direct correlation as F gets bigger so does U. So the logic of a shrinking pilot group will have a negative impact on upgrades only applies if there is downgrades. Pretty sure no one is saying that Envoy will have a displacements of Captains in the next year or two.
True if X is less than F. But if X is larger than F (which in this day and age probably won't happen) then your logic is thrown out the window.
I'm pretty sure your math classes stopped at year 1 or 2 of college.

Last edited by deadreckoning; 11-06-2015 at 09:16 PM. Reason: Punctuation
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Old 11-06-2015, 09:43 PM
  #40  
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Originally Posted by adspilot View Post
Let me revert back to my old job as a college math professor and try to explain how numbers work. Your humble opinion is that envoy will only be able to hire X number of pilots per month. Upgrades can be approximated as F/X=U, where F represents number of FOs (ON PROPERITY) and U equals months until upgrade. One can easily see that F and U have a direct correlation as F gets bigger so does U. So the logic of a shrinking pilot group will have a negative impact on upgrades only applies if there is downgrades. Pretty sure no one is saying that Envoy will have a displacements of Captains in the next year or two.
Originally Posted by deadreckoning View Post
True if X is less than F. But if X is larger than F (which in this day and age probably won't happen) then your logic is thrown out the window.
I'm pretty sure your math classes stopped at year 1 or 2 of college.
Not sure what you think X, and F are but you are way off. Anyways I tried to clarify that F is the total number of FOs on property.
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