Currently the ATLM88B is showing almost 40 less for Jun 2019 on the latest projected category list then required according to the last AE forecast.

We’ll find out next week if New Hires to the 88 are still on the table or if one of those numbers is wrong... I’m guessing the later, the next AE in April will shave even more off the B side.

*edit for math

I don't think new hires will be coming to the 88 because they will get finished with training and immediately get displaced(assuming 88's are gone by the end of 2020).

I recently flew with an LCA. He said they were told to expect some new hire OE’s in 2019 fwiw.

There will still be 60 plus MD-90’s.

We gave out 88s to New Hires in the last 3 classes before the MOAB and it still had over 100 displacements. They’ll need bodies on it as long as people keep flowing to other aircraft faster then they are retiring them. Right now from the available data, the 88 is either being retired faster then when the Jun 2019 requirement was made or they’ll have to put new hires into the 88. Unless there’s another way to square being about 40 bodies short?

I understand they can only put new hires into vacancies.

But is that only vacancies from the latest AE? Or vacancies from any of the prior AEs?

There were zero unbid vacancies on it after the July AE or the last AE, so new hires cannot be assigned to the 88 until an AE leaves positions unbid.

As an aside, we recently had a new hire from the last new hire class in June in the jumpseat. She was assigned MD in ATL, but then promptly got displaced to A220 in New York on the MOAB. Ready for 30,000 opinions from 14,000 pilots? Explain why some are hanging onto the 88, and if it will change enough to create new hire vacancies before it retires. Discuss amongs yourselves.

no one was displaced from that June class to the A220 though, those people who were in that last June class were all awarded it via the AE.

True, but maybe this is why the memo with the last AE said they may have a small one in January (don’t recall exact verbiage) was because they suspected a shortage on the 88 as more people had their seat locks expire.

I suspect people in the bottom half will continue to flee as their seat locks expire, a sizable chunk on the list can’t leave. So each AE, more can and will. At the moment, it looks like the pace is outstripping the retirement rate. We’ll know for sure on the next AE I guess.

As for that NYC 220, seat lock doesn’t apply for a new base/category so she got it as an AE award. There were only ~20 VDs and no MDs on the last 88B displacement.

Cheesh, you guys almost sound as though you believe that there is some logic and advanced planning here. Almost as if Crew resources (CR) were proactive vice reactive.



Wrong - CR has what would normally be a very, very hard to do job, but is now basically an impossible job due to the schizophrenic nature of marketing. IOW all these last minute route/ship/model changes are impossible to keep up with in the best of times. Add to that numerous fleets, huge retirements etc and you can see why what someone in management says today totally earnestly may be 100% incorrect tomorrow.


OBTW - For years I was very critical of this but as long as we are the most profitable passenger airline in the world I must assume that there is some method to the seeming madness.



Plan for the worst and hope for the best.


Scoop