You know I didnt say that to be seen as hope , i just stated that it happens and thus is a factor in attrition.

the age 65 retirements for 2010 was a grand total of 3 - we've had roughly 170 leave the company so far this year. Some were PIRPs but the pirps ended earlier this year and we still have guys leaving.

True, but over 100 of those retirements were PRIPs. Other than the PRIPs, we're averaging about 6 guys/month leaving. At that rate it will only take 2000 months (167 years) for the rest to leave.

point is that the projected list shows 3 for this year, there will be more than the projected retirement lists show. Also we're lower on the number of retirements right now because the majority that were going to go out early, took the prip so now things were likely to slow for a bit. With that said you know we wont avg 6 a month forever so the 2000 months comment is redonkulous

Point is we're 2 years away from age 65 affects to be over so between now and then we dont know for sure who will leave and when but it will be more than the worst case scenario of everyone going to 65.

Of course, the 2000 month comment was a joke. Having said that, I've followed retirement rates for a long, long time. Historically, at DAL, prior to the age 65 change, and the "run on the bank" exodus of guys fleeing to get their lump sum, we had about 1%/year leave the seniority list for anything other than mandatory retirement. With the current list and age 65, I'd suspect that will be a bit higher. I'm guessing we'll average about 180-200/year PLUS age 65 retirements for the foreseeable future. Based on that, here is my estimate of total separations for the next few years:

2010: 40
2011: 190
2012: 220
2013: 310
2014: 360

Good Post PG. Thanks.

My congrats to getting hired in these tough times. My only advice is enjoy the job! However, in order to do that you can't be sitting long call in one state with a family in another. If you can't move your family for various reasons, it will be a tough few years to say the least. Your first shot at block holder will likely be in NYC or in ATL on the 9 when it gets there.

The secret in everything you bid and plan on, risk vs gains. IMO, try to avoid seat locks as best you can; something worthwhile may come along in all the movement.[/quote]


Your statement on long call and commuting is the best single piece of advice any new hire will get. The reserve system never allowed for commuting at all until the last the improvements in more recent contracts. I have consistently noticed however that the least happy pilots are those that commute on reserve. Avoid it if at all possible.
The advice to go to the nine if you want to hold a line might not be good however. The category is shrinking. Richard A in the 16 Sep flight attendant conference call stated he wants the DC-9 50's retirements accelerated. He did add a qualifier that at the moment they don't have the airframes to do that but I suspect if they get more 90's it will happen.

Agree with Sailing here. Have commuted to reserve for the past 2 1/2 years because I can't move the family just yet and until the company finally gets the planes in the 'right' locations there is too much uncertainty to move. I've had three bases in three years and only one was by choice (could be another base in my future if the AE goes against me).

However, remember this if the family is happy and has a support system in place we pilot types can survive for a little while as commuters. If you move them to make your life happy, you may find out all types of things about unintended consequences!

Agree and disagree with Sailing,
I've been commuting to reserve MSP88B, sometimes resv is not bad. May worked 4 days and that includes Short Calls, June 4 days, July I felt like flying and choose a line, Aug went back to resv for 6 days of work, and I have worked 5 days in Sept.
As a new-hire I was in ATL88 and resv did not go so well. I worked everyday I was on resv. So it can go both ways. Things can change but resv in MSP 88 is not bad right now.

Anybody know offhand how junior (in years) SLC, LAX, MSP or SEA are? Also, how many Compass pilots have received class dates so far since the flow started. Thanks in advance.

I can tell you that I just flew a trip with an April hire in NY.

(7ER in case you didn't know)