fine with me. UA would have to pay OO the next 15 years and we could all stay home!! You forget OO has long term contracts with our partners…

You can terminate an agreement early if the cancellation fee makes sense financially. The CASM on RJ flying has increased significantly with the recent fuel savings advancements on new mainline A/C combined with updated RJ pilot pay to fly only 50 pax. In 2026, RJ’s are only needed for protecting slots or daily routes where the demand doesn’t fill enough seats. TBH most those routes now could be driven by the customer(s). The international parking fee’s is why most decide to connect through a small spoke airport instead of driving 2 hours to a hub. When self driving vehicles (Waymo) expand outside major metropolitans.. look out. As GDP continues to rise and the available slots continue to stay stagnant you will see continued upgauging by OO’s major partners. The future of regional flying will be a slow decrease with pay rates stagnating allowing inflation to lower CASM so the RJ flying stays economical.

A lot of newcomers to the 121 world have a sort of distorted image of the business realities. This was the Skywest FO payscale less than eight years ago:

alt=""https://i.postimg.cc/gchgJ9d8/IMG-8029.jpg

https://www.docdroid.net/gcWuUk6/november2018ta-pdf

The VAST MAJORITY of the payscale improvement at the regionals since that event is directly attributable to COVID.

Prior to COVID, major airline hiring was chugging along at about 2000 to 5000 a year, usually depending on the state of the economy. A thousand of those new hires - more or less - came out of the military aviation world. The rest was from an assortment of sources, 135, 91, but mostly from the regionals.

But then came COVID and all at once a lot of aircraft were getting parked. Strangely (or maybe not) the regionals were somewhat less affected than the majors. Part of that was the necessity - at some airports - to actually USE the assigned gate or risk losing it to a competitor, although a lot of the gate and slot requirements were waived by the FAA and the airports for the duration. And while the government was largely bailing out the airlines, the expectation was that there would be a prolonged period of low passenger traffic. Many of the majors incentivized early retirement for those near retirement. Most of these were CAs at the high end of the payscale who were getting ready to retire anyway and you saved a lot more money if you could get a CA over 12 years off the books than you did furloughing an FO on probation - who would have been the first to go had anyone been furloughed. And furloughs are particularly difficult for multiple type fleet airlines where furloughing the most junior people - from the most junior bases - mean that you may have to do additional type trading and to pay for base moves to get those spots filled.

So a LOT of near retirement guys were incentivized to retire from as much as five years early. And then the quick rebound of flying caught everyone by surprise. And the majors hired like crazy. In the three years of 2021-2023 they hired 30,000 pilots. OK, 3000 of those came from the military, but three years of 9000 major hires a year was totally unprecedented. The LC/ULCCs alone were hiring 2000 a year. And the bulk of those hires came from the regionals. And generally the first to get hired were the most experienced guys/gals, the CAs.

Now the regionals have a problem the majors don’t have. They sort of have to grow their own CAs because you need 1000 hrs of 121 SIC time before you can upgrade . But the regional CAs were quickly gobbled up by the majors and even the senior FOs were being gobbled up - especially by the LCC/ULCC carriers and pretty soon there simply weren’t enough regional - or even FOs with enough 121 time to upgrade to CA - to fly the schedule, and the regionals started parking aircraft. Because you can’t fly a 121 schedule without a CA.

Of course they didn’t lose ALL of their CAs. Some were too close to retirement to make even going to a major make economic sense. Some were too happy having the seniority to fly the schedules they wanted in the base they wanted to be based at to hop to a major and have to commute to reserve. But there weren’t really enough of these to fly the schedule and even with premium pay, those few coukd only fly 1000 hours a year, and the regionals were still losing FOs to majors before they were even upgrade eligible.

So the regionals threw money at the problem, big increases in pay to get the CAs to stick around a little longer, big bonuses for DECs, often guys who had gotten the hours to upgrade but had gone off on different career paths because they were working for only $30-40 an hour 10-12 years previously with no prospect of an upgrade for another 7-8 years. The regionals even paid big bonuses to hire “near DECs” FO’s who already had 750 hours, and even paid CA pay (the new higher CA pay) to keep them around and upgrade. They also got the majors whose pax they were flying to meter the hiring to the major. It was actually easier for the regional CAs to get hired by someone else than buy the major whose pax the regional was flying.

So it’s important for those in the regionals - and heading there - to realize that the massive hiring in the majors seen in the early part of the decade was a pretty much unprecedented event that led to rapid increases in regional pay that is unlikely to be repeated. Not saying your union shouldn’t TRY to get every dollar and work rule and benefit improvement possible on your next CBA, but just warning you ahead of time that your leverage is limited - perhaps more limited than some of you realize.

Very good overview! I remember when Republic worked no-fly lines into their contract. Senior FOs who were lifers were getting all the good flying and the FOs who wanted to upgrade needed the time, but couldn’t fly because block hours were being reduced monthly because they couldn’t staff the flying.

Those senior FOs got paid MMG to sit at the house and do nothing. Couldn’t pick up trips and only got called for either currency or CQ. Those senior FOs stayed home while the younger FOs got to do some flying.

Truly a wild time when a regional paid FOs to stay home so other FO can get some flying done.

Mainline jobs are threatened by the regionals. That’s the whole point of scope. I’d encourage you to do some research in this area of the industry as the fight for scope was long and contentious.

You should want mainline to take in all the regional flying. That would create more mainline jobs and thus allow opportunities for you to get on with a mainline

Why would I want that? I’m plenty happy for now driving to work. Right now, where I am in life, it’s worth the difference in pay for me. Job security is pretty important to me too. Last I checked, Skywest didn’t send any active pilots home during covid when mainline did. Sure I could make 400k at mainline, but I’m okay with around 200k knowing I’m not going to lose my job the second there’s a downturn. You say mainline jobs are threatened, but I know 100% mainline pilots would complain to no end when they have a min rest overnight in Riverton Wyoming or Hobbs New Mexico. Also, I will try my best every time to get a commuter on my airplane whether it’s in the Jumpseat or in the back, but I can’t help but think it’s kind of funny that the only reason I can’t get them on is because of scope.

Other regionals sent pilots. Not sure about other pilots, but IIRC correctly, no one got sent home. Government stepped in and helped with payroll. Early outs also occurred.

Additionally, the regionals are some of the least secured jobs on the market. Partners can cut ties or shift flying at a whim. No one is safe. I’m surprised you believe such a a thing when regional partners are at the mercy of their mainline partners.

United also doesn’t really construct min rest layovers. A handful of layovers are like that. It’s how ops are ran here with regard to trip construction. I would ran fly to Riverton and Hobbs on a 737 then let an RJ fly it. We already fly to some small places as it is, adding a few more won’t sway QOL or QOWL one bit.

Lastly, I don’t follow your logic behind your scope comment. You’re gonna have to explain that one to me

The CRJ550 is severely weight limited solely because of scope. I’ve had to deny jumpseaters and non revs because of it. That was what I was referring to. “Sorry man, can’t take you home on this one, I know that the 700 can go to 75,000lbs but this 700 that only holds 50 people can only go to 65,000lbs even though it’s the same airplane”

I had a similar mindset. Then I got the chance to go to a legacy (commuting), took it, and am far happier than I ever was driving to work. Money is only part of it, a schedule that doesn't beat me into submission is a bigger part. There are other things that contribute as well.

Understood. It is unfortunate,
no doubt. As a commuter myself, I understand their frustration.

That said, scope keeps mainline from outsourcing everything to the regionals. Protects high paying pilot jobs (which is good for everyone). Ideally, everything goes to mainline where this isn’t an issue.