trip

When no SKYW pilots are out on CPTO/VTO, pilots who where in training get finished up, mainline starts hiring current SKYW pilots that starts attrition, SKYW is not “shrinking”, and people start flying again.
So there ya go.

Itsajob

Technically it says that they have to offer employment. If we don’t take it, the requirement will be considered satisfied.

rickair7777

This virus is from a well-known family and science is familiar with how your body deals with such viruses. It is highly likely (essentially assured) that catching it once will provide future immunity for a long time (years at least, or forever). Dr. Fauci has re-iterated that.



The fed is fast tracking a vaccine, they already have one and there's no "science" that says you can't manufacture and deploy it right now. The issue is not science it's risk...

NORMALLY they first do safety trails, followed by efficacy trials. Then once the data is reviewed and certified, they would start manufacturing the vax. That could take 1-2+ years.

But in this case they are not going to stand on bureaucratic procedure while Rome burns. What they are actually doing right now is:

-Vax is in stage one trials (safety).
-They intend to ramp up production NOW, and get large quantities stockpiled (relatively cheap, very cheap in this context).
-If the safety trials look good then they will look for evidence of efficacy in the safety trial. That's not the purpose of the safety trial, but they can observe the infection rate of the participants.

If it looks safe AND appears to have some efficacy, then the executive branch (ie trump, not bureaucrats) can look at the big picture and decide whether or when to deploy the vaccine, based on the health and economic circumstances.

Remember they are going to produce the vax asap, so there will be quantities on the shelf by the time they have data from early trials (if the vax doesn't work, they'll flush what they produced down the drain).

Good news is vaccine science is pretty established, the one they developed based on the DNA of COVID *should* work, there's no particular reason to suspect that it won't. Just like you don't really expect a new airliner to crash on it's first test flight.

The bigger uncertainty is probably the safety aspect, which is why there's some risk involved that would not be tolerated for a routine pharma. They might restrict the vax to younger/healthy people at first, so the people who drive the economy can get back to it (phase one safety trials use young, healthy subjects).

So good chance we get a vax much sooner than 18 months, at least for the demographic which makes up most of the economy. Dr. Fauci also described all of this a few days ago.

nstaley2

As someone that had a class date for the end of July I’m wondering what the impact will be on myself? Since I was already offered a job will that job still be there once all this gets back to “normal”? I can’t get a response from my HR contact so just wondering if anyone has any insight there?

VegasChris

I am in the same boat as you, but early August. I would assume it would go in the order of

1. Any Skywest pilot that gets furloughed
2. United pilots with whatever clause is in the contract that has been metioned on here.
3. Everyone sent home from training in order.
4. Everyone with class dates prior to yours and mine in order of start date.
5. Then your class followed by mine.

So in other words its going to be a while.

Other factors would be other pilots that are laid off from other places that do not need a CTP course might go in front. With the social distancing definitely not ending until May I would say that it will be a miracle if the airlines can save the summer travel season.

I am not even going to worry or try to predict anything until we are well into May.

Everything is volatile right now, but it was said in another thread- the pilot job pie may be getting smaller but 1000s of pilots are turning 65 each year and the virus/economy does not care about time. Travel will come back. The MAX will not be grounded forever.....and now fewer people will have money to pay for bachelor's degrees and flight training. Keep whatever job you have now or find one that is "essential" to get through the current times

itsmytime

Optimistic way of looking at it.

Flymeaway

It's unlikely anyone who hadn't started indoc will keep their job offers. Once hiring resumes, I expect the recruiting department to do new interviews. If the majors still have guys on furlough, I expect those guys to get interviews before CFIs, etc.

desertfly3r

Flymeaway Where are you getting this information? Why would they waste money to re-interview those that were already given a job offer and in CTP....

Meow1215

Why would they hire majors on furlough? So they can get to the line and take their old job back? What kind of long term investment is that?

itsmytime

thankfully, flymeaway doesn’t work in anyone’s h.r. department.