Melit

They are done with all regionals. They will come back a lot smaller and run like a LCC

amcnd

the ERJ is already seeing 70% or more, of what March was. The CRJ not so much....(flying sked’s nit pax)

Claxstarr

I really think this was the catalyst that allowed DL/UA to begin the move to make 175’s their regional connectors ahead of schedule.
Beginning of the end for the 50seaters.

amcnd

i still think the 50 seat RJ will be around. But in very small amount... basically all the Prorate markets..and some of the poor performing contract markets will turn prorate..

Flymeaway

They still have to convince the unions to cave on scope. They only get a little over a year for free. Not saying it won’t happen, but they have been saying no way no how for a long time now. We’ll see what happens now that things have turned south.

Itsajob

I don’t expect the no way, no how mentality to end, if anything, being that we are all facing furloughing pilots, resolve has been strengthened. The legacy unions have had enough. Things have radically changed, but the legacy airlines will have to come up with a solution that does not expand outsourced flying or cause harm to legacy pilots. 9/11 was a pivotal moment. The legacy pilots agreed to concessions, and the regional market boomed at the expense of the careers of legacy pilots. Those lessons have been learned. This is most likely even more of a pivotal moment. The unions realize that not giving up on scope could cause the industry to move back in a direction that benefits current and future legacy pilots, rather than protect or expand the current regional model that thrives due to C scale wages and the whipsaw.

TFAYD

that checks - UA MEC showed some statistics tracking schedule reduction by UAX partner. 50 seat only guys were decimated to -80%. SKYW, RP and Mesa were down “only” -50% or so.

EELightning

amcnd, I’m asking a question (not making a point). Isn’t there a math problem with eliminating most 200s/145s? I though much of the UAX 50 seat flying before cv19 was happening because the 175s were scoped out. Won’t the 175 fleet have to shrink if the UA mainline fleet shrinks?

amcnd

honestly i don’t keep track of scope #’s and what happens if mainline shrinks. Reason... I've lived through 9/11 and 2008.. and contracts change all the time do to pandemics/downturns/wars... Honestly airlines were in full cocky mode prior to this March.. stock buybacks, trying routes just to try routes ect.. I do believe the 50 seaters will dwindle..but not go away. Most these city's will be served by a prorate airlines using multiple airline codes.. Shifts in this area are already happening. Look at MEI/PIB. Switching for AA DFW serves to UA IAH. All EAS at risk by SkyWest. You will see lots of movement in these types of routes over the next year... I predict. More “Waldo’s” (generic paint) aircraft.. And UA can “claim” they don’t have any 50 seaters. Because those flights are SkyWest Airlines...

itsmytime

thats correct. United is scoped out on 70 seaters. They can have unlimited 50 seaters.