late to the party “domino”!!!!

Easy math. Take what i will make this year at OO. Multiply that by 10… Go i to SWA or AA rates take each year at 85hrs at FO pay for 5-6 years. Then captain pay for the next 9-10.. add that up. And its the same as 10 years at OO vs 15 years at AA/SWA. (Don’t forget AA does not give 401k first year and SWA upgrade at 8+ years). Trust me I've been faced with this decision.. This does not even factor on QOL lost for the next few years and when i would upgrade.. Plus side for leaving is not working as much… The point is. A 45+ year old can make a good career at SkyWest get involved in LCA work or training. Under 40, Go to a Major. Easy answer..

 

Your math depends on things remaining the same or improving for the regionals. In a rapidly changing industry there is no easy math. You definitely have risk on both sides of your decision. The regionals will most likely be much smaller than they are now, but I also think that people are kidding themselves thinking that outsourced flying is going away. Hope it works out for you.

 

I was in 2/10 CTP And 2/20 INDOC for CRJ and haven't gotten any update on new class dates. The person who commented earlier about having and early Feb class date getting pushed to march was ERJ who accepted CRJ for earlier class date.

 

also can be said for the majors if there’s a downturn either way if SkyWest goes away im sure the majors will be hiring if everything comes “in house” ….sitting right seat the last five years until I retire wouldn’t be a bad gig…

 

And your math may work for you (although narrow body CA at UA and DL are only about a year out right now which would dramatically change the math), but how many of your fellows have a $100k side gig and are an LCA? Enough to maintain enough CAs to keep OO viable when they are hiring 500 hour regional FOs at majors? It’s a queuing problem that seems to be getting worse, not better. Increasingly, it appears like the LCCs may be the new ATP entry level to 121.

Ever read The Last of The Mohicans ? You might get pretty lonely.

 

that works for you and makes sense because you live in SLC (or maybe DEN). You have some very unique circumstances with your side gig. The picture is very different for 90% of OO pilot as evident by the attrition rates.

 

You do know the retirements will normalize to planned amounts the further from Covid we get and no major has the fleet to bring the flying in house. That hurdle would be least for Delta and yet for them that would require growing all of Delta by about 20% through organic growth which is extremely difficult.

 

The “planned amounts” are still record numbers of age caused retirements at the legacies. Yes, that was aggravated by the early retirements offered early in COVID and the domino effect of training through multi-type fleets, but even after those early retirements legacies are STILL looking at record numbers in the out years. And the regional CA shortage will aggravate the problem further since new ATPs progress is being delayed. And the new leverage the major pilot groups have is giving them increased QOL and soft time which has the effect of increasing the number of pilots the majors will need to fly even the same number of aircraft, far less the massive numbers they have on order. And gate crowding and concern over CO2 emissions are forcing the airlines to look at bigger and more fuel efficient aircraft with less frequency. Boeing (and others) were forecasting a crippling shortage of pilots long before COVID, and it has now arrived.

It isn’t just COVID. The regionals are dying the death of a thousand cuts. 50 seaters will go first. Then we’ll be seeing even the 76 seaters replaced - by more more CASM and fuel efficient Airbus 220s and Embraer E2 195s. At majors.

 

Here's a list of preassigned credit hours for the first half dozen or so instructors in SLC.

141 16
147 17
162 15
140 17
126 15
107 19
108 20
111 16

That's pretty typical year-round. Highest I've seen was 199 hours with still a number of days off. Now you might question what the two numbers are next to the credit amount. That's the number of days off they have next month.

So, what if you aren't in the training department. Fly standups and credit over 87 hours and start getting the extra 30%, or $280 an hour for those extra 30 hours a month. Work 16 -18 nights a month for 115-118 credit. That's around $27k for the month.

Can everyone do this. Absolutely not. And that's why most should and probably will move on. But there is a group of pilots that do fall into these groups. AMCND might, or might not be one of them.

 

Another thing.. It's not always about making the most money. I've haven't done a trip since October. I've been home every day. I used my overnight bag maybe a dozen nights last year. I get the days off I want. Went on a cruise, Hawaii, and two Vegas trips without really using vacation time in the last 6 months. My life was built around 80-90 hours at $120 an hour. With the $216 I've been working minimum hours since November. The excess number of captains in SLC has allowed bidding down to 60 hours a month for a while now. Look at next month's PBS transition report. A large percentage of pilots are doing the same. It'll probably change in the future, but I'll enjoy it now.

And I'm not even all that senior in domicile.