Which is mostly attributable to 117 than it is to be understaffed. It's like this every summer. Why be staffed at 100% during June-Aug only to be staffed at 125% come September. It's the airline that's never furloughed a pilot in it's 42 year existence.

 

I don't think SkyWest ever expected to win the bid, it's no secret we aren't the lowest cost. Compass is cheap as they virtually have no assets and very low crew costs thanks to the flow. First, this year there are 10 200s and 10 700s coming off contract for United, safe to say the 700s aren't going anywhere. The US contract does end in 2015, and I think its beginning of the year. That's 14 airplanes, 10 being 200's. The 4 900's will certainly find a home, if the contract is not renewed. There are also 10 200's and 31 700's that come off contract with United in 2015... it's possible they extend these 700's or replace them with 175's. Other than that, its just a few 200's here and there that come off contract until 2018 when a majority of the 700/900 contracts come up.

SkyWest has a lot of aircraft on order. AA still needs to find a home for its 700 flying... Alaska is shopping for Q replacements. Just saying... this place has some tricks up its sleeve.

 

SkyWest is about as stable as a regional can be. They have a truckload of 175's on order, and I do believe management has a decent track record of finding homes for airplanes under terms that make the company money. I will say that every time I think management is going to do something, they end up pulling off something that makes a ton of sense that people inside and outside the company never thought about doing. They are pretty good.

As far as "OMG 1 year upgradez !!!!11!!!!!" type of growth. Not going to happen here.

 

Unless quick upgrade is your No 1 priority, OO is a great place to be at. Especially if you live in or near our domicile.

 

Here is my perspective on DEN. I was a Jan new hire assigned MSP. I completed IOE in DEN in April and was awarded DEN for May. The top two DEN requests from the Jan class where awarded. There were several more wanting DEN that are still waiting as there were no FO awards for DEN in June or July. Since there are no reserve FO's in the DEN July bid (package targeted 193 line holders for 190 bidders), there will likely be DEN awards for Aug.

There is movement in the company - last I looked I was up 116 numbers from start with 176 behind me - just nothing much in DEN yet.

This is simply my experience, your mileage may vary.

 

The only replacements AS would be shopping for would be CRJ-700 replacements, as the ex-Horizon -700s are getting up there in age. I saw the Embraer 175 over at ASIG in SEA a few weeks ago when Chip and company brought it up from St. George to woo Brad and the fellas over on International Blvd. I'll buy that possibility.

But Q400 replacements? No way.

Horizon has the Q400 operation down to an art, and they make Alaska a lot of money. OO does not have CAT III, which is VITAL to the SEA, PDX, and GEG shuttle markets, nor RNP .1, which is becoming more and more crucial throughout the AS and QX system, especially with QX moving up into AK. When you combine the Q400's fuel burn and speed on routes under 500nm, there is nothing that can currently beat it on the numbers side, and OO--and every other RJ regional--has nothing in their arsenal that would be competitive. The Q400 isn't going away.

Sorry dude.

 

Thanks I typed out a long winded response as an ex QX pilot there is no aircraft that can come in and replace the Q. The 175 if flown for AS will totally be a 700 replacement as the 700's we fly are the oldest in the world I believe. I don't think any other airline would be willing nor want to spend the money it would take to bring on an airplane like the Q and certify it to RNP .1 and CATIII for less than what QX does it for.

 

I know QXers love to beat their CATIII drum but.....
There is a reason we ripped the HUDs out of all of our Alaska 700's when we got them, it doesn't pencil out. Our chief did the math and the times you can get in CATIII vs CATII is so slim that it doesn't even come close to justifing the outrageous expense to maintain those systems.

 

No need to be sorry. They need to be able to compete with Delta now, the Q400, just isn't going to cut it. Also, the new mx base opening up in BOI? Coincidence? The 700's are on contract until 2018. Nobody said the Q is going to go away over night. At some point Alaska is going to have to evaluate if they want to continue operating two certificates, or cut some costs to try and fend off Delta. It's all speculation for the future, not next week.

 

For a dozen airplanes flown primarily between PDX/ SEA and California on a contract several times a day, it doesn't. Fully agree with you. But as stated earlier, if you want to knock out the QX Q400s and have OO do the flying, then it becomes a necessity. Remember, PDX and SEA will sit with three digit RVRs for days, if not close to a week. And flights several times an hour is a whole different ball game than several times a day. QX wouldn't do CAT III if it didn't pencil out on the spreadsheet. So yes, QX beats the CAT III drum.

The Q400 has no problem "cutting it" when it comes to competition. It was used by AS to dismantle Southwest in the Pacific Northwest. The consumer sees the mighty dollar sign, and with AS costs being lower than DL costs, I doubt a Q400 will be the determining factor. I see CRJs running SEA-PDX against Q400s and I cringe when I think of CRJs fuel burn on that route. It's got to be an expensive way for DL to make a stand against AS/ QX. The AS following is hardcore and many revere QX for their customer service. It's a more than potent force to take on DL.

I'm sure the BOI Mx base will serve more than the one or two AS contract CRJs that RON there...

Four years isn't a lot of time when you start examining asset replacement. 2018 will sneak up quick. I'm sure AS leadership is planning well past that date, and if new RJs will be in the mix, I'm sure the plans are being drawn up now.

OO is a good shop. Lots of good people. Applied there back in the day but a local Citation gig opened up. QX is a good place too with good people. But it comes down to efficiency and economies of scales guys. Above is the discussion and examination of it. It's why the QX RJs got contracted out, the QX Qs aren't going anywhere and will probably increase, and AS will hold its own against DL.