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Old 06-05-2016 | 06:37 PM
  #1511  
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Originally Posted by Tom Kazansky
New Guy here,

I currently live in Houston & hoping to hold IAH eventually, but some have warned me it is a shrinking base and that alot of the 700s are leaving IAH and leading to a possible closure eventually. (I don't necessarily hope to hold IAH for a CA upgrade one day, but my goal is to live on base here at least while im an FO).

What are my best resources for understanding base shrinkage?
...I've heard many things from other friends warning me that trying to hold IAH is a dumb thing to do (1 SLC Skywest FO, a few envoy guys, and a mutual friend at Delta)... honestly i'm just not even sure what to look for or what questions to ask when considering whether trying to hold a line at IAH is a poor decision or not. Any help?

(yes I used search function, only found page 18 of this thread and one other page of relevance).

Thanks in advance, and sorry if this was a stupid question.
You can get Houston for now but who knows the future of the base? It's the only united hub we have that doesn't have 175's so it wouldn't be hard to see them bringing a few there.

Do not go to Mesa. That is a 50% pay cut compared to here.
Old 06-05-2016 | 07:01 PM
  #1512  
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Originally Posted by saxman66
United et al have jets coming because they know their regional partners can't staff their fleet. The -200 is the new Brasilia. SkyWest will keep it flying because they make money on them and we'll keep flying as many as we can staff. Although some -700 are being parked or brought to other paint, there is no scope limit on the 50 seaters. You and others keep saying the sky is falling, but it's not. If you want a pilot job, you can have a pilot job. In other words, SkyWest will shrink, not because of what United tells us what to fly. We'll shrink when we can't find enough pilots. At least until the next big economic downturn.


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And.........your wrong.

50 seaters are capped at 90% of the total narrow body fleet. ~475 total, that's if the whole UAX fleet was 50 seaters but it's not. So for every 76 seater, roughly ~2 50 seaters get removed. There is also a cap on the total RJs based on the total narrow body fleet.

The fact that JB22 watched the united network planning videos tells me he's not much of a troll at all. FYI the current plan is to shrink the RJ flying by 30% over the next 5 years and in a month or 2 there will be no RJs flying bewtween UAL hubs. Keep trolling the the lifers JB22!
Old 06-05-2016 | 07:19 PM
  #1513  
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Originally Posted by UALfoLIFE
And.........your wrong.

50 seaters are capped at 90% of the total narrow body fleet. ~475 total, that's if the whole UAX fleet was 50 seaters but it's not. So for every 76 seater, roughly ~2 50 seaters get removed. There is also a cap on the total RJs based on the total narrow body fleet.

The fact that JB22 watched the united network planning videos tells me he's not much of a troll at all. FYI the current plan is to shrink the RJ flying by 30% over the next 5 years and in a month or 2 there will be no RJs flying bewtween UAL hubs. Keep trolling the the lifers JB22!
I stand corrected. Where are these videos? I can't find them on Skynet.
Old 06-05-2016 | 07:19 PM
  #1514  
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Originally Posted by UALfoLIFE
And.........your wrong.

50 seaters are capped at 90% of the total narrow body fleet. ~475 total, that's if the whole UAX fleet was 50 seaters but it's not. So for every 76 seater, roughly ~2 50 seaters get removed. There is also a cap on the total RJs based on the total narrow body fleet.

The fact that JB22 watched the united network planning videos tells me he's not much of a troll at all. FYI the current plan is to shrink the RJ flying by 30% over the next 5 years and in a month or 2 there will be no RJs flying bewtween UAL hubs. Keep trolling the the lifers JB22!

That may all be true.

But why would anyone stop the RJ flying as long as it can be staffed, there is gate space and there are new routes where marginal revenue exceeds marginal cost?

Many former RJ routes may go mainline. But there are plenty of Nowhere Nebraskas out there that an RJ can and will go to. Just look at all the EAS locations. So the 50 sweaters will just go lower down the foot chain but they won't go away.

And while UA or DL may not be really all that interested, SKYW can do it as at-risk flying. Just look at the service to places like DVL. I doubt it is high on the UA route strategy but we serve it under the UA brand.... Plenty of more DVL out there that can be served.

As long as there is no scope limitation they will stay around...

Having said that, more mainline jobs are great for everyone.
Old 06-05-2016 | 08:12 PM
  #1515  
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From: Downward Dog
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Don't come here if driving to work in Houston is a big deal for you.
They are talking about closing it. I can't imagine it closing but all signs point to you being a commuter.
Old 06-05-2016 | 09:28 PM
  #1516  
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I'm looking at coming over to Skywest in October. I'll be moving to Chicago. Hoping for the CRJ as it looks like that's where all the flying is. Obviously a lot can change between now and then, but as of right now, how long can a newhire expect to be on reserve in ORD?
Old 06-06-2016 | 04:12 AM
  #1517  
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Originally Posted by WesternSkies
Don't come here if driving to work in Houston is a big deal for you.
They are talking about closing it. I can't imagine it closing but all signs point to you being a commuter.
Agreed. MT's last update included a mention that IAH will likely close early next year...
Old 06-06-2016 | 04:18 AM
  #1518  
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Originally Posted by saxman66
I stand corrected. Where are these videos? I can't find them on Skynet.
I went to find them and they've been removed or archived to somewhere else.
Old 06-06-2016 | 04:52 AM
  #1519  
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Originally Posted by Tom Kazansky
New Guy here,

I currently live in Houston & hoping to hold IAH eventually, but some have warned me it is a shrinking base and that alot of the 700s are leaving IAH and leading to a possible closure eventually. (I don't necessarily hope to hold IAH for a CA upgrade one day, but my goal is to live on base here at least while im an FO).

What are my best resources for understanding base shrinkage?
...I've heard many things from other friends warning me that trying to hold IAH is a dumb thing to do (1 SLC Skywest FO, a few envoy guys, and a mutual friend at Delta)... honestly i'm just not even sure what to look for or what questions to ask when considering whether trying to hold a line at IAH is a poor decision or not. Any help?

(yes I used search function, only found page 18 of this thread and one other page of relevance).

Thanks in advance, and sorry if this was a stupid question.

I would not count on IAH for the long term if that is important to you.

Almost all UA 700s will go away (I think there are only 6 or 7 left). UA is pursuing a single partner strategy in IAH and their chosen regional partner in IAH is Mesa, i.e. I would not expect any SKYW 175 to go to IAH.

Nobody knows for sure but I think there is a good chance that IAH will indeed close.

Even if IAH remains a base, you would likely have a hard time holding it relative to other senior folks who are living in IAH .
Old 06-06-2016 | 07:34 AM
  #1520  
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Originally Posted by tizzizzailslf04
I'm looking at coming over to Skywest in October. I'll be moving to Chicago. Hoping for the CRJ as it looks like that's where all the flying is. Obviously a lot can change between now and then, but as of right now, how long can a newhire expect to be on reserve in ORD?
I am ORD CRJ on reserve, June is my second month on reserve; add as well to that the half of a month after I completed IOE. Possibly July will also be reserve for me. Many of my classmates from January are the same, so three months is what you should expect.
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