Upgrade times in the future?
01-28-2019 | 11:45 AM
#151
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Apr 2012
Posts: 508
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From: 737 CA
Short answer, yes, and that happened in only one bid.
Upgrade will likely be faster at Delta then Southwest due to retirements and lower category airplanes. A more fair comparison would be when can you hold the left seat of the A320 or B737 at Delta over the last couple bids. I'm guessing that's currently in the range of 4-6 years at Delta, not less than a year.
Upgrade will likely be faster at Delta then Southwest due to retirements and lower category airplanes. A more fair comparison would be when can you hold the left seat of the A320 or B737 at Delta over the last couple bids. I'm guessing that's currently in the range of 4-6 years at Delta, not less than a year.
That's not what I said at all.
I'm not denying that DL peeps can potentially upgrade faster, but saying your distance from junior captain is artificial is not necessarily true.
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01-28-2019 | 12:59 PM
#152
Furloughed Again?!
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 4,948
Likes: 109
From: Boeing 737
Upgrade times in the future?
Ok.. what am I looking at? The “total” number at the bottom?
That shows in the neighborhood of 730 right now.
That shows in the neighborhood of 730 right now.
Last edited by ZapBrannigan; 01-28-2019 at 01:16 PM.
01-28-2019 | 02:11 PM
#154
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Joined: Aug 2015
Posts: 997
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The reason we hypothesize that the number is artificial is that some First Officers don't bid captain for various reasons until they are near upgrade, but will still end up go ahead of you, thus not making the number a true representations of when you will upgrade.
Is that what you're saying is not true, or is it something else I'm missing?
01-28-2019 | 03:32 PM
#155
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Apr 2012
Posts: 508
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From: 737 CA
Upgrade times in the future?
Now I'm confused. We're talking about the SWAPA Individual Vacancy View...which has a number that shows how many First Officers are bidding Captain who are also senior to you.
The reason we hypothesize that the number is artificial is that some First Officers don't bid captain for various reasons until they are near upgrade, but will still end up go ahead of you, thus not making the number a true representations of when you will upgrade.
Is that what you're saying is not true, or is it something else I'm missing?
The reason we hypothesize that the number is artificial is that some First Officers don't bid captain for various reasons until they are near upgrade, but will still end up go ahead of you, thus not making the number a true representations of when you will upgrade.
Is that what you're saying is not true, or is it something else I'm missing?
I think everyone understands that. I'm speaking about myseniority.com and the distance from junior captain. My DL example was just to say that he/she actually held captain at 6 months despite the fact that many people senior bypassed. There's nothing artificial about it. Being X amount below the most junior captain is just what it is and is a real thing. I guess I just don't think that assuming similar bypass ratios in the future is unreasonable.
If you're just referring to the SWAPA. Individual Vacancy, I agree it's fairly worthless.
I quoted the wrong post, so I see the confusion. My bad!!!
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Last edited by Burton78; 01-28-2019 at 03:44 PM.
01-29-2019 | 03:48 AM
#157
Furloughed Again?!
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 4,948
Likes: 109
From: Boeing 737
When the whole seniority list is moving up quickly i think it’s reasonable to see people holding off until they can hold their preferred domicile or even waiting until they can be off reserve in the left seat. But if the music stops and the seniority progression halts OR if a merger is announced I think you’ll see all 900 bypassers racing to the left seat as fast as they can.
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01-29-2019 | 04:56 AM
#158
Gets Weekend Reserve
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 4,259
Likes: 240
From: B737CA
When the whole seniority list is moving up quickly i think it’s reasonable to see people holding off until they can hold their preferred domicile or even waiting until they can be off reserve in the left seat. But if the music stops and the seniority progression halts OR if a merger is announced I think you’ll see all 900 bypassers racing to the left seat as fast as they can.
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And then watch... no movement - you’re stuck. You can be senior but you won’t be able to displace someone currently a captain back to the right seat because you’ve had enough of kernels and you get a wild hair for the left seat with no vacancy available. It’s all a calculated risk.
Also, ask yourself... if the music stopped right this minute, would you rather commute to LAX and be a bottom reserve captain or would you stay in your domicile and drive to work as a senior FO?
01-29-2019 | 07:05 AM
#160
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Joined: Aug 2015
Posts: 997
Likes: 68
Agreed, there will always be bypassers. Assume everything stays the same, 60% overall seniority will get you in the left seat. However there are two (maybe three) factors in play this year, one is the "overmanning" that might push hold outs to upgrade, one is the opening of LAX (may be very undesirable). The third is a possbile recession, which could also push upgrade senior.
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