Upgrade times in the future?
01-24-2019 | 03:35 PM
#141
On Reserve
Joined: Nov 2015
Posts: 16
Likes: 0
I heard the new revenue guy (Waterso) say he wants big metal but higher ups don’t want it. He then went on to say...they would t be here forever. That was about 3-4 years ago. Same time he forecasted a 12,000 pilot group in about a 5 year period. That part seems to be coming true. I don’t think Tom Nelon (so) wasn’t brought on for anything but growth when Kelly calls it quits after Hawaii launch.
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01-26-2019 | 09:40 PM
#142
Line Holder
Joined: Oct 2014
Posts: 83
Likes: 0
From: 737 pilot
Just ran some numbers and 7 year upgrades are now part of the equation. It depends on how many FOs continue to bypass as well as how junior LAX goes, but with 480-540 upgrades per year, that will really open some things up on the upgrades.
And, I'm fully expecting us to jump on the 797 when it gets announced. Watterson has already drawn up plans for expansion and a network including a different airframe. He loves the 787 and the 321 NEO. Current leadership doesn't want to go down that road if the profits will remain the same, but the liabilities will increase. They're comfortable with the all 737 fleet.
And, I'm fully expecting us to jump on the 797 when it gets announced. Watterson has already drawn up plans for expansion and a network including a different airframe. He loves the 787 and the 321 NEO. Current leadership doesn't want to go down that road if the profits will remain the same, but the liabilities will increase. They're comfortable with the all 737 fleet.
01-28-2019 | 10:58 AM
#143
Gets Weekend Reserve
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 4,259
Likes: 240
From: B737CA
Depending on what goes on next year and with LAX, 2014-2016 hires will probably see a 6-year upgrade, or possibly lower if the LAX base ends up with non-commutable lines making a 3-day trip be a 5-day event for commuters with a 6-month lock for good measure...
01-28-2019 | 11:08 AM
#144
Furloughed Again?!
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 4,948
Likes: 109
From: Boeing 737
Upgrade times in the future?
I’m early 2014 and still 1000+ from the most junior Captain. What that number doesn’t reflect though is over 860+ first officers who are bypassing - meaning they’re senior enough to hold captain but have chosen not to. (Most likely waiting for a domicile or to be off reserve) So the ‘real’ number is about 1800 numbers away.
Here’s the retirement numbers that reflect how long it will take to work through those 1800 pilots.
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Here’s the retirement numbers that reflect how long it will take to work through those 1800 pilots.
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01-28-2019 | 11:15 AM
#145
Gets Weekend Reserve
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 4,259
Likes: 240
From: B737CA
Great! Now check out SWAPA website and get the real-time number that includes the individual bid preference numbers.
SWAPA Main > Committees > Schedule Research > Vacancy > Individual Vacancy View
SWAPA Main > Committees > Schedule Research > Vacancy > Individual Vacancy View
01-28-2019 | 11:19 AM
#146
Furloughed Again?!
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 4,948
Likes: 109
From: Boeing 737
I think that’s artificial though. For example I have my current domicile and right seat set as my number one preference to prevent a ‘surprise!’ upgrade to somewhere I don’t want to be.
If other people did the same thing to protect themselves against an unwanted upgrade aren’t those numbers kind of bologna?
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01-28-2019 | 11:26 AM
#148
Line Holder
Joined: Aug 2015
Posts: 997
Likes: 68
I agree for the reasons you state but I'm still curious what your number is.
I actually bid like you (FO in my current domicile), but after this new report came out I changed my bid to more accurately reflect what I'd truly accept. I assume you'd take the left seat in domicile...
For me, mid 2016 hire, 12xx ahead of me.
I actually bid like you (FO in my current domicile), but after this new report came out I changed my bid to more accurately reflect what I'd truly accept. I assume you'd take the left seat in domicile...
For me, mid 2016 hire, 12xx ahead of me.
01-28-2019 | 11:27 AM
#149
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Apr 2012
Posts: 508
Likes: 0
From: 737 CA
I think that’s artificial though. For example I have my current domicile and right seat set as my number one preference to prevent a ‘surprise!’ upgrade to somewhere I don’t want to be.
If other people did the same thing to protect themselves against an unwanted upgrade aren’t those numbers kind of bologna?
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If other people did the same thing to protect themselves against an unwanted upgrade aren’t those numbers kind of bologna?
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Were the 6 month upgrades at DL artificial due to countless people bypassing the "opportunity" to fly a Mad dog out of LGA?
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01-28-2019 | 11:33 AM
#150
Line Holder
Joined: Aug 2015
Posts: 997
Likes: 68
Upgrade will likely be faster at Delta then Southwest due to retirements and lower category airplanes. A more fair comparison would be when can you hold the left seat of the A320 or B737 at Delta over the last couple bids. I'm guessing that's currently in the range of 4-6 years at Delta, not less than a year.
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