If it’s a 1:1 and no add’l options exercised…then we’re basically just hiring for attrition. No idea how many 700’s/800’s we have left and how many firm Max orders we have.

 

Believe it or not, airplanes don’t drive hiring. CBA limits how many work days are built into the lines. That’s the main driver. Number two is max block hours that allowed to be built into the lines. Those two drive hiring. SWA of the old used have a pure am/pm duty day for the airplane. SWA of today has way too many airplanes that run beyond the duty limitations of 117(red eyes, trans con, etc). You can have one airplane have four crews in 24hr period just due to the stage length. Netting airplanes definitely helps though. Delivery of 66 and retiring of 60 in 2026. That excludes the Max7. Rumor is 4 deliveries slated in DEC for the Max 7 is in Boeings delivery schedule. Another rumor is Boeing has made a sweet deal to SWA to take all those parked Max 7’s. I think 26 are built. Initially, SWA said no but Boeing made a deal they couldn’t refuse.

 

I heard that also. Boeing will do all the checks etc to get them into service and whatever mx needed for xx time thereafter.
IF 26 max 7 hit late this yr of early next that could mean some decent hiring at the trail end of the yr.
Just in time to open another base and staff it with DEN pilots

 

Ugh....be funny if it weren't prob true.

 

The MAX 7 doesn't equate to growth anymore, only as a 1:1 replacement for 700s. The MAX 8s will help us grow.

 

Have to agree here. The 700s are in dire need of replacement. They will be 1 for 1 for quite a while and then once the 700s are gone, they will probably right size gauge by retiring/selling 800s. The company can’t wait to get that 700 albatross from around their necks. Those planes are all extremely high cycle and, even though they have done heavy checks, you can easily tell that they are just riding them into the dirt and not doing a lot in the way of upkeep. I swear I am calling mx on about every 5th leg in one.

 

idk the company wanted to fly the 300s and the max at the same time beofre the FAA said no.
They might keep them longer than we think

 

SWA's annual 10K just came out. Always good info in there. Average age of the 700's now is 20 yrs. Average age of the 8's is three. As of probably today(10K goes to DEC 31st 2025), there are more 8's than 700's. Mx costs for 2025 were down almost 10% for the year. Fuel costs were down almost 10% also. Part of that is price but consumption was also down as well. On a per ASM basis, mx was down 10.5% and fuel and oil was down 11%. For SWA, adding new airplanes is a no brainer as long as utilization and capital to buy them is justified. SWA is hard on it's assets when it comes to airplanes. Thats a good thing. P2P still drives those efficiencies. 74% of SWA total trips last year were non stop with 871 nonstop city pairs. Still the average stage length of 780 miles. Lots of cycles on those birds. Just remember, SWA would rather drive efficiency through squeezing more flights with current fleet count and getting more ASM's and block hours(pilot hiring) than buying new airplanes. Turn times were reduced last year to create more airplanes without adding fleet count. It creates a floor for margin expansion. The other side of the equation will be what is yet to come with the new initiatives. Thats asset mangement 101 in business school. Another analyst raised his estimates for SWA to $5.00 vs $4.00 a share from the company for 2026. Estimates now for the first quarter are .52 a share vs .45 a share a month ago. Report card's will be out in April.

 

That was under the old regime. Not single executive that made those decisions is here anymore. Two thirds of them never worked under Herb and one didn't even work under GK. Same company of course but different leaders with a much different initiatives. You maybe right though, the 700's may stay a little longer if something comes up that was not foreseen or a competitive opportunity comes up. If or when the Max 7 comes, those 700's are gone.

 

I mean just look at the way SWA has gone about with upgrades across the fleet, the 700s did not get the new seat interiors, they aren't getting large overhead bins, I'm willing to bet that none of the 700s are going to get Starlink... They just need to retire them ASAP.