Difficult Decisions
09-30-2024 | 08:55 AM
#152
Line Holder
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 258
Likes: 6
From: 75/76 CA
I don't think our illustrious COB is looking to do anything evil, he is just looking out for number one and the legacy that he built after the founder left. Had he bailed in 2019, he would have been hailed a hero and we probably would have had Tom Nealon as our CEO. Instead, that succession plan fell apart and he slashed and burned during Covid, delaying our recovery, then Boeing happened, the meltdown happened, and we all know the rest. Gary Kelly did some remarkable things in terms of growing the company, but he left a legacy of paying investors when we should have been getting the plumbing and electrical upgraded resulting in the biggest meltdown in the industry's history. Now he wants to get his and leave as much of his team that he has in place intact. I don't blame him, I am not mad at him, he just kind of sucks and I don't trust him to do anything more. It isn't personal. Good luck to him and his exotic car collection. Go enjoy the grandkids while there is still time. Adios. Time to leave...like why are you still here?
Smart people have peeked under the hood and seen what SWA has going on. It isn't pretty. We got here by thinking we were smarter than everyone else when really we were mostly just lucky. I would agree with your assessment about the corporate raiders and free cash except they just announced stock buybacks which will require a boatload of free cash that they currently don't have. So instead of generating the free cash first and then being like "man, we are out of stuff to spend money on, let's buy our own stock", they are saying "let's sell some airplanes and leverage our order book to generate free cash to buy back stock". That isn't the way it's supposed to work. It's a clear signal to institutional investors that we are willing to buy our way out of this problem.
The funny thing about this whole situation is that neither Elliott nor the company has the final say in what happens. It's just the way the financial markets work right now. Both are sending up big signals to try and get other people to change their minds. That's it. Its a multi billion dollar game where someone behind the curtain picks the winner which definitely won't be any of us.
Smart people have peeked under the hood and seen what SWA has going on. It isn't pretty. We got here by thinking we were smarter than everyone else when really we were mostly just lucky. I would agree with your assessment about the corporate raiders and free cash except they just announced stock buybacks which will require a boatload of free cash that they currently don't have. So instead of generating the free cash first and then being like "man, we are out of stuff to spend money on, let's buy our own stock", they are saying "let's sell some airplanes and leverage our order book to generate free cash to buy back stock". That isn't the way it's supposed to work. It's a clear signal to institutional investors that we are willing to buy our way out of this problem.
The funny thing about this whole situation is that neither Elliott nor the company has the final say in what happens. It's just the way the financial markets work right now. Both are sending up big signals to try and get other people to change their minds. That's it. Its a multi billion dollar game where someone behind the curtain picks the winner which definitely won't be any of us.
did you see this? thoughts?
https://youtu.be/wjqE3d0tJZA?si=pGtJNAC68xGJgzoa
09-30-2024 | 06:45 PM
#155
Banned
Joined: Dec 2023
Posts: 534
Likes: 0
You must be a Air Tran guy who thinks he got hosed when SWA bought it outright? Now that was the worse decision Gary Kelly ever made IMO. He should have just waited for it to go belly up and bought it's pieces and had all you guys all interview. 3/4 of would not have gotten hired.
10-01-2024 | 01:30 PM
#157
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 45,167
Likes: 803
From: Engines Turn or People Swim
10-01-2024 | 01:37 PM
#158
Banned
Joined: Jun 2022
Posts: 34
Likes: 0
I think a lot of people thought the same thing with Eastern, Braniff, and TWA. And if Wikipedia is right Elliot had a hand in their restructuring did it not? If you look at Elliots past statement with other companies, they are running the same game plan here at SWA as other companies they tried to muscle in. I think everyone should be suspicious of this group.
10-01-2024 | 04:59 PM
#159
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 45,167
Likes: 803
From: Engines Turn or People Swim
I think a lot of people thought the same thing with Eastern, Braniff, and TWA. And if Wikipedia is right Elliot had a hand in their restructuring did it not? If you look at Elliots past statement with other companies, they are running the same game plan here at SWA as other companies they tried to muscle in. I think everyone should be suspicious of this group.
Your examples are post-deregulation fallout. I think the last of that was settled with the big BK's and mergers 15-20 years ago, and the rise of the ULCC's.
We're in a new era now. Don't forget the past, but there are differences.
10-01-2024 | 06:06 PM
#160
Banned
Joined: Jun 2022
Posts: 34
Likes: 0
My point was that a corporate raider's flexibility might get inhibited by .gov if it was looking to significantly screw up air travel capacity. They might get stuck with a white elephant, and no way to squeeze blood from the stone.
Your examples are post-deregulation fallout. I think the last of that was settled with the big BK's and mergers 15-20 years ago, and the rise of the ULCC's.
We're in a new era now. Don't forget the past, but there are differences.
Your examples are post-deregulation fallout. I think the last of that was settled with the big BK's and mergers 15-20 years ago, and the rise of the ULCC's.
We're in a new era now. Don't forget the past, but there are differences.
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
