Originally Posted by Excargodog

Barring bankruptcy, the more the Big Three downsize the higher their unit costs. That would be the case even if they were a single fleet type, since by furloughing they will disproportionately retain the more senior (ie, more highly paid) pilots. But they AREN’T single fleet types, meaning every furlough - AND EVERY REHIRE - is going to generate a number of training events, as guys whose last previous type was in a 727 need to be 737 and/or MAX trained since his/her 787 is now parked. And even if all the flying came back in line proportionately by type, that would just mean more retraining.

No, unless the Big Three get some sweetheart deal from the feds or actually go through bankruptcy to extract huge concessions from their unions, I can’t see them bouncing back quicker than the LCC/ULCC model.

I’ll concede I may be wrong - wouldn’t be the first time - but I think the single fleet model (+/- the MAX for SWA) confers a substantial advantage - at least for domestic flying, which I believe will rebound first.

Originally Posted by CAirBear

Given the tone and matter of factness, and lack of panic I sense, from TC emails and VP of Flt Ops, I think it’s clear they are going to ride this thing out. Already found some good financing it sounds like in the private market.

Im not saying we will be flying the same amount of pax as we did just a month ago, but by fall Sept/Oct if you think we are still only flying 25% of our schedule and 20 pax - then I don’t know what to tell you. People aren’t going to live holed up in their homes for the next 6-12 months.

Its going to come back. I believe late summer, possibly middle summer, it will start to climb back out of this. I believe that and I think it’s clear TC and company believe it as well.

Also, this could have been pre contract, but I think I heard we only need 66 pax or (close to that number) to essentially break even.

Even if the rebound is slow, as long as we are able to BE or very minimal loss we can still function.

Originally Posted by TrojanCMH

I think it’s a very real possibility that we at Spirit see furloughs but I also don’t think this downturn will last nearly as long as 911. During the 911 downturn people were scared of flying and traveling and we were at war.

People aren’t scared of flying today. We aren’t in a major wartime conflict. People are just scared of this virus and are heeding the CDC’s advice to stay home. Once the virus peaks or a vaccine/cure comes out and people are back at work I’m pretty sure they’ll want to go on their vacations again. Who knows we may actually see a surge since people are sick of sitting around at home. Business travel and international travel may take a little longer to return than domestic vacationers. Who knows if this peaks in a couple months and tapers off they may be able to make some money with last minute vacationers trying to squeeze in their summer vacations.

Originally Posted by TrojanCMH

One thing that worries me with Spirit is if the big three and southwest cut costs so much they can compete with us on price once the average family wants to start flying again. Spirit has no loyal passengers. If price was equal no one would fly us or any of the LCCs.


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Originally Posted by SAABoroowski

#AIRTRANNED

Originally Posted by torn

Would that be a bad thing?

Originally Posted by FNGFO

Only if you watched Zed’s treatment of Marcellus Wallace, and thought it looked like fun to be Mr. Wallace.

Originally Posted by torn

Would that be a bad thing?

Originally Posted by Tranquility

Who’s Zed???