I’m not sure if they are naive or what but I genuinely think they believe it will bounce back relatively quickly and they want to be staffed for that......there is no other explanation IMO

 

I can think of another explanation. Coronavirus is going to exacerbate the demographic pilot shortage. Yeah, currently with little flying, there is no shortage, but even the big ‘Spanish Flu’ pandemic a century ago only lasted two years, and most pandemics are shorter than that one.

But look at one of the steps some Airlines have already taken to avoid furloughs because a seniority based furlough in multi aircraft fleets is so enormously costly in training. Early retirement is going to take off the rolls a number of pilots that would have otherwise stuck around for at least a few more years. And, sadly, the coronavirus itself will take out some of us - disproportionately the older ones. But that’s still additional attrition than would have otherwise been the case.

Then there is the supply side. Right now, flight time is a relatively scarce commodity at all levels compared to a year ago. People aren’t getting trained at the entry level like they once were, limiting the hours that allow their progression, as well as the progression of the CFIs that train them. Regional flying time has collapsed as well. Those pilots who were coming up the ladder to replace the mandatory retirements have their own progression put on hold by this.

So when this is actually over - be it three months, six months, or a couple of years from now - the pilot shortage will be worse than ever. It actually makes sense, if they have the money to do it, to get as many qualified people as possible aboard, with a seniority number, and a commitment to NK while they are still available. F9 ought to be doing it too, locking in good candidates while they can get them cheap and taking advantage of the absurdly low first year pay. Because good candidates will be in far shorter supply once this pandemic goes away, and as hard as it seems to believe that now, this won’t last forever.

 

Why would they be in shorter supply. Hypothetical, APC forum discussion timeline:

Summer 2020: gone, destroyed by COVID

October 2020: Assume 100 (one hundred) furloughed by each of Big-3, JetBlue, SWA, and at Skywest, Endeavor, Envoy. As a result of furloughs, there is no "new pilot hiring" going on at above companies. 8 companies X 100 = 800 dudes with Boeing, Airbus, ERJ time and 121 time. This assumes one hundred at each company.

October 2020 thru 2021: Big-3, JetBlue, SWA management reshapes their fleet structure and business model, they come out the other side as smaller companies. Now, no "need" for new pilot hiring. They still have furloughees on the street even if they "needed" pilots.

April 2021: One year since COVID-19, vaccine is obtained/developed. Injecting this into everyone's arm in USA takes 6 months.

Summer 2021: ??? to be determined.

October 2021: Everyone's arm got the COVID vaccine. People finally decide it is safe to travel. People return to the smaller sized major airlines.

during the above years, retirements are occuring at the companies. Furloughee's are junior folks and likely age 55 or younger, generally speaking. In other words, few furloughees hit age 65 while on the street.

April 2022: six months later, Big-3 and other majors begin to recall furloughees

October 2022: Big-3 and majors resume new-pilot hiring

Shorter supply ? from late 2020 to late 2022, no. after that, yes. Will Spirit HR hire a furloughed Delta guy, who triple promises he is not returning to Delta ? Time will tell.

*I may have just made your point. Indeed, possible. I think some valid arguments that yes possible, others that no, no way

 

Yeah I agree that’s what they appear to be doing. I think they figure there’s little downside to getting these guys on property because they can easily offset the cost with LOAs and VILs. Plus, with a single type it will be much less expensive or logistically complicated to furlough than the big 3, allowing them to kick the can down the road a bit.

 

One thing that worries me with Spirit is if the big three and southwest cut costs so much they can compete with us on price once the average family wants to start flying again. Spirit has no loyal passengers. If price was equal no one would fly us or any of the LCCs.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Not happening. The Big 3 are addicted to business/international travel, SWA will continue to roll their “no bag fees” and free drinks/pretzels into their tickets, and all have much, much higher pay structures to support.

The Legacies will lose their a$$es if they try to play ULCC for very long, and WN has to pick and choose it’s places. I suspect all airlines will retreat to their core customers before trying to build back out again. My bigger concern is our stock price, new airframes, trained pilots and market share being attractive enough to buy/merge once the dust settles.

 

it will be interesting if SWA and JetBlue come out of this, having been Spiritualized. And both look like their versions circa 2000.

 

What we need to do is become the "number 1 airline for pandemic travel." Everyone gets an N95 mask, gloves, hazmat suit and goggles. We limit the numbers so that everyone can socially distance. Have agents doing the ear temperature scan thing before people board.

 

We can't stock SaniComs, cater the aircraft, empty the lav, or be bothered to vacuum the airplane. I highly doubt we can do what you suggest.

 

Barring bankruptcy, the more the Big Three downsize the higher their unit costs. That would be the case even if they were a single fleet type, since by furloughing they will disproportionately retain the more senior (ie, more highly paid) pilots. But they AREN’T single fleet types, meaning every furlough - AND EVERY REHIRE - is going to generate a number of training events, as guys whose last previous type was in a 727 need to be 737 and/or MAX trained since his/her 787 is now parked. And even if all the flying came back in line proportionately by type, that would just mean more retraining.

No, unless the Big Three get some sweetheart deal from the feds or actually go through bankruptcy to extract huge concessions from their unions, I can’t see them bouncing back quicker than the LCC/ULCC model.

I’ll concede I may be wrong - wouldn’t be the first time - but I think the single fleet model (+/- the MAX for SWA) confers a substantial advantage - at least for domestic flying, which I believe will rebound first.