If you join in under the 3000 mark now let’s say in another 2-3 months, how long would the upgrade currently be? Since upgrade is purely based on growth & not on retirements it’s definitely a tricky situation at Spirit.

 

3 years ish, could go down if they accelerate upgrades. You would be surprised how many FOs bypass as well.


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NK just updated their APC profile and now list 163 aircraft and 2681 pilots, for an average of 16 pilots per aircraft. Normally (prepandemic) NKs utilization rate has exceeded 12 hours per aircraft per day and the ability of lineholders to drop to zero requires a higher number of pilots per aircraft than some airlines. The same profile is predicting about 293 aircraft in the fleet by 2027. That would imply about 4700 pilots by that time. According to Aerocrew News, NK will be retiring about 30-35 pilots a year in that timeframe climbing to about 45 a year thereafter. Adding in medical attrition (hey there’s a reason for that own occupation LTD insurance) about 240 guys/gals on the seniority list right now - most of them Captains - will be gone by the end of 2027.

Most airlines have more CAs than FOs (roughly 55-45 ratio) because CAs are less productive (more vacation time, more soft time, more LCA/OE duties, more sick leave (although FMLA may be changing the latter) and right now NK probably has a ballpark of 1400 CAs. In 2027, 1160 of those will still be around against a 2027 requirement for roughly 2800 CAs implying 1640 upgrades between now and then. That would be enough upgrades for all of the current 1300ish FOs and pretty much everyone hired before 2022 - all assuming NK actually makes its growth projections. After that further upgrades would be limited to replacement of attrition at a rate of ~50 CAs a year unless there was continuing new growth, which though that was averaging 15-17% per year prepandemic certainly can’t continue indefinitely.

There actually may be faster upgrades if the attrition from hiring of NK junior people by other airlines resumes. While HR does their best to choose people actually committed to a career at NK, first year pay really isn’t all that competitive with many majors and many of the legacies - with much older pilot groups are going to be retiring 6-7% a year in the near future. Convincing some people to give up a year or two NK seniority to jump ship somewhere else for more money and the same or better career progression is gonna happen, causing quicker upgrades to those behind them. And, as the commenter above mentions, a lot of people are content to hang out as a senior FO - pretty much in charge of their own schedule.

 

im Right at 40 years old. I’ve commuted to reserve at three airlines for the last 10 years.

i will not upgrade until I can hold a line in base. I’m in no rush. Depending on contract 2022, maybe I never will. QOL is what I’m after at this point.

 

There won't be a contract 2022. Im sure you are referring t0 2022 "early openers" but I would not count on any contract coming soon once we open. The company clearly wants to get back to profitability and then pay off the debt that have stockpiled while building their pandemic war chest, versus bringing cash to the pilots for a deal. There is no reason for ALPA to want a deal until the company is back at full steam, its going to be a slow play by both sides, with the company probably trying to cry poor from the beginning.


My guess is best case CBA 2025...most likely after 2025. Is what it is.

 

disagree. The upcoming hiring wave will force Spirit to increase pay if they want to remain competitive for quality pilots. I don’t think anybody is prepared for what is coming.

 

Regional airline will have the shortages over the next decade, Spirit and majors will not have issues on this next contract to hire pilots. Don’t think for a minute Spirit will say “we need to pay guys years 1-12 more money to hire pilots”. They will say “let’s hire from flight schools, let’s hire from XYZ.”

I give it a 0% chance Spirit cuts into their cost advantages by “we have to pay more for ‘quality pilots,’” it won’t happen. Just as the other ULCC won’t either, cost advantage is everything and they will maintain that, even if it means hiring CFIs.

 

I agree. They literally spent 20 mins straight, on the last Flt Ops Townhall, about increasing pay for rampers and launching a bonus program. Granted pilots are a lot more per hour than ramp crew, but you get the idea.

They could have easily downplayed ramp crews and said “it is what it is, eberyone is dealing/struggling with”, but instead seem to be proactive about it.

If they have visions for a WN style airline (700-750 airframes) there’s zero doubt pay will be coming up. I highly highly doubt this place stops growing come ‘27.

Finally I’ll add this. Yes we are “ULCC” but I don’t think some people that work here realize just how much our tickets are. 8 weeks ago when I looked at our schedule and tried to “buy” tickets to CUN (from DFW) for mid June. It was $400 ONE WAY.

I’ve done lots of “bookings” throughout the system and I think it would surprise a lot of you just how much we are charging. An increase in pilot pay is not remotely the reason why we would suddenly be unprofitable. You can believe what you would like.

 

Out of curiosity, what were other airlines charging for DFW-CUN for the same days? $400 sounds high but if everyone else is charging $800 one way.. 🤷🏼‍♂️

 

It’s demand far out reaching supply, this isn’t what to build a case study on. Give it a year once things are back to “normal” and prices will stabilize.

No difference why everything is expensive now. Call it inflation, supply issues, whatever…this isn’t the norm