I think the bigger problem is not knowing exactly how many aircraft will be out of service at any given time. Talking to a gaggle of maintenance guys the other night there are a number of factors that make it hard to pinpoint when exactly each plane will come down and how long for each. It's also not necessarily a first in, first out operation either. So some planes it might just be down long enough for an engine swap and back in service, while others sit a while.

From a staffing standpoint this makes it difficult to project how low they can take crew levels. Underutilization and inability to crew flights during a network disruption is the risk you take running too lean, and our meltdown elasticity hasn't been stellar.

 

From managements last email it seems they have a decent idea of that. They said an average of 26 planes down at any given time through the end of next year.

 

The Spirit network guy Kirby testified in the trial last week and citied numbers of up to 70 ish planes at some point through 2025.

 

I’m also wondering how many JR captains will be tempted by the new United “direct entry” ish - captain. Before that, as a captain, it would be hard to leave spirit. But with a little turmoil, the idea of a legacy in the back of your mind, and knowing you have a shot at a captain bid In training, that may coerce some of the more junior captains to go also. Interesting dynamics here for sure

 

In total - not down at a time.

 

From ALPA website -

[img] [/img]

 

Probaby not very many if I had to guess. Maybe a handful of junior CAs who commute to FLL from flyover country.

Our junior CA bases are in Florida, where virtually everone lives within driving distance. United has only one base in FL and I would imagine MCO 737 CA looks like a retirement home with decades of seniority requried to hold even reserve.

 

It's all personal numbers game. UA has just under 17,000 pilots, with 6000 to retire over the next 10 years. Even with growth to 18-20k pilots in that time you are still on the wrong side of 50% seniority at the ten year mark. That's ten years of anything better than junior narrow body reserve at the least desirable base going to anyone senior to you. The next ten years the retirements are half that number, and drops off precipitously from there, putting you somewhere between 35-40% after 20 years depending if UA can hit the 24,000 mark they have stated. Solid narrow body line holding captain in base of choice perhaps, but that's not going to put you in the gravy line widebody skipper shoes. At that point most of the pilots senior to you are likely younger, and that's twenty years of no significant industry/economic events.

 

4 years most junior captain at MCO for United

 

That assumes that everyone ahead of you wants WB CA which not everyone wants. I think things would be good for people coming onboard now