What are your thoughts/opinions on how trigger happy they are to furlough. I always had in my mind the ULCC was a safe bet but after the past year doubts linger into my mind. Then again you go to a legacy and at the bottom 20-30% you’re a goner if something triggers furloughs.. *insert crystal ball is down for mx* comment.

 

It’s not that I don’t UNDERSTAND the argument you are making, it’s simply that I don’t agree with it. Ultimately, it isn’t your opinion or mine that makes any difference, it’s how the Fed decides to handle inflation.

If they force the cost of borrowing money up the heavily indebted (or leveraged) airline companies that are not yet back to 2019 numbers are probably headed for bankruptcy. Most airlines bond ratings are in junk territory already. And if any get in worse troubles the bond vigilantes will be all over them, trying to feast like vultures on the weakling. You can continue with your diatribe about major airline accounting gimmicks all you want, but history says that airline bankruptcies are rather common.



The airline business has always been a crapshoot. You place your bet and I’ll place mine. Time will tell whose bet will win.

 

I don't know. .. down for mx is accurate sentiment.
Of course I've never seen United management so concerned about pilot manning before. They started hiring as many as possible before they needed to so I take that as a sign that they won't be so trigger happy to furlough again.
Plus, as someone who's been furloughed twice, I, along with the majority of my peers, voted to take flying cuts in order to prevent furloughs. That's a huge paradigm shift from previous downturns. ... and I'd wager that most who are no longer on our seniority list voted against cutting hours to save furloughing. So I'd expect to see cuts across the entire seniority list to mitigate future furloughs at United.

For ULCCs, I don't see furloughs as an issue. They are going to be short on pilots even if an economic downturn happens.

 

Ah, changing the subject. Tried and true tactic to deflect.
Now you're calling for a recession. Yawn. Nice deflection.
Do you now want to discuss Powell and the Fed? Take it to Moneytalk. There's a whole subforum for that kind of stuff.

 

The only thing United airlines does well is lose a **** ton of money. Every earnings call it’s the same pathetic routine. Scott does his little Kangaroo dance and tells everyone how woke he is. “United’s changing the world” one massive expense at a time. Take on massive new debt, why not! Hey did we tell you about our 30 diversity hires! The program is costing us 10’s of millions to finance, but hey maybe in 3 years time 20 out of the 30 will be employees at the greatest airline at losing money in the world. It’s almost like you and AA“G” are in a competition for who can file for BK first.

I do love your earnings calls though… Kirby talking nothing about how they’re actually going to make money. Then finally after the kangaroo dance is over…. The numbers guy comes on. What’s his name? Gerry, right? I love it when he comes on, because every time I’ve had the pleasure of listening to Gerry speak, it’s how much money United’s lost for the quarter.

Here’s a little sneak peak from the recent Q’s “earnings” call from my boy Gerry.

“Turning to the numbers. For the full year 2021, we reported a pretax loss of $2.6 billion and an adjusted pretax loss of $5.8 billion. For the fourth quarter of 2021, we reported pretax loss of $845 million and an adjusted pretax loss of $679 million. Our CASM-ex increased 13% on capacity down 23%, both versus the fourth quarter of 2019. While CASM-ex was within our guidance range for the quarter, it was slightly higher than the midpoint as a result of Omicron-related expenses.

Looking to the first quarter of 2022, there are two major factors impacting our CASM-ex. First, because of Omicron, as Andrew mentioned, we are adjusting capacity downwards to align with demand, consistent with the agile pivoting we've done throughout the crisis. Secondly, we currently expect that our 52 Pratt-powered 777s will mostly remain grounded through the first quarter. This reduction in flying keeps our aircraft utilization down about 16% in the first quarter versus 2019 and does drive additional cost inefficiencies.”

You talk big for a guy who works at an airline that couldn’t operate a lemonade stand at a profit.

 

You ok? Maybe loosen the 5th or 6th button on your jacket and take a few deep breaths. It’ll be ok…

 

You'd think Kirby had relations with this guy's mother or something.

 

Didn’t age well.

 

haha nope !

 

Yikes. Still want to hold onto this or are we moving on now?