Where is ALPA?
04-09-2024 | 01:55 AM
#191
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jul 2010
Posts: 3,866
Likes: 115
04-09-2024 | 08:38 AM
#193
Banned
Joined: Dec 2022
Posts: 88
Likes: 3
Spirit has 6 main problems, any number of which could bring it down.
1. The Debt- Spirit is the MOST Leveraged airline in the entire industry when adjusted for size. They have 630X EBITDA to Debt due next year. Anything over 7x has historcially required bankruptcy. Spirit is at 630X in 2025.
2. The NEO Problem- By the end of the year Spirit will have 46 airplanes parked, that’s about 25% of the current fleet. By the end of next year, they will have over 90 NEOs of the fleet parked, almost half. And The 300 day turn around time from Pratt just became a 400 day turn around. This NEO problem will also be a huge show stopper for any other airlines interested in merging with Spirit.
3. The ULCC Business model- It’s dead in the United States. No one wants to be nickeled and dimed in our culture. The morons that run Frontier and Spirit have raced to the bottom of the section 8 barrel, trying to find the lowest hanging fruit in every ghetto of America. That business model fails because it does NOTHING to drive a Premium Product and high revenues. The Legacies make all their money from Credit Cards and their Premium First Class Services. Spirit is hemorigin money! Frontier is in trouble, Avelo is in trouble, Breeze hasn’t had the financial success everyone thought it would, they all will end up failing because the RASM is far to low to win in the end. The Legacies are printing money and have absolutely mopped the floor with the ULCCs post Covid.
4. The reputation- Spirits reputation is atrocious! Spirit is one of the ****tiest airlines in the world as far as customer experience goes. They also have become one of the most hated companies in America. They are the laughing stock of light night television and the bunt of every airline joke in comedy clubs across the country. This Management team took Ned’s great airline and drove it into the fu*king pavement. There won’t be any customer tears shed when Spirit finally goes away.
5. The Blocked Merger- When Judge Young killed the deal with JetBlue, he just created a legal precedent that sealed Spirits demise. This antitrust win for the DOJ will still stand even after a bankruptcy is filed. This likely means the only players on the table left to actually be a potential merger candidate would be Frontier or Allegiant. Have fun with Uncle Franke and Indigo, they are a true model of labor relations.
6. Attrition- It’s about to skyrocket. Spirit has 20 year captains, 15 year Check Airman, and 10 year Chief Pilots pulling the rip cord. This Fall I believe attrition could hit north of 100-150 a month. They will get behind and they will not be able to catch back up. Especially when half the check airman all quit in a 6 month Span
As for bankruptcy, Chapter 11 worked for the Legacies because they either used it to merge, or they used it to shed debt, and they were too big to fail. They also owned a lot of assets that helped them survive by having collateral to back the new financing. Spirit owns next to nothing. They are down to 23 Unencumbered Airplanes and a Hangar in Detroit. There is nothing left to leverage.
In Bankrrupcy, the company also has to prove to a judge that there is a viable path forward. Spirit has been hemoraging money for 4 years in a row. They had 1 profitable quarter in the past 17 quarters. When the Judge sees there is no path forward, he will liquidate, because that will by far produce the highest level of compensation to the debt holders.
In the past 5 years, there have been 14 air carriers that went under. This has put more pilots on the street than Spirit has in its ranks by 3 fold. To say America won’t let Spirit fail in this day and era is dillusional thinking. I hope it doesn’t happen, but I’d give it at least an honest 50/50 chance at this point. Any one who actively isn’t trying to jump into a life boat is like the people that stayed on the Titanic so they could cheer on the ship.
Express Jet
Delta Private Jets
Miami Air
Pacific Airlines
Xtra Ravn
TransSates
Swift Air
Eastern Airlines 2.0
IAeroAirways
Via
Aha
Air Choice One
Compass
California Pacific
1. The Debt- Spirit is the MOST Leveraged airline in the entire industry when adjusted for size. They have 630X EBITDA to Debt due next year. Anything over 7x has historcially required bankruptcy. Spirit is at 630X in 2025.
2. The NEO Problem- By the end of the year Spirit will have 46 airplanes parked, that’s about 25% of the current fleet. By the end of next year, they will have over 90 NEOs of the fleet parked, almost half. And The 300 day turn around time from Pratt just became a 400 day turn around. This NEO problem will also be a huge show stopper for any other airlines interested in merging with Spirit.
3. The ULCC Business model- It’s dead in the United States. No one wants to be nickeled and dimed in our culture. The morons that run Frontier and Spirit have raced to the bottom of the section 8 barrel, trying to find the lowest hanging fruit in every ghetto of America. That business model fails because it does NOTHING to drive a Premium Product and high revenues. The Legacies make all their money from Credit Cards and their Premium First Class Services. Spirit is hemorigin money! Frontier is in trouble, Avelo is in trouble, Breeze hasn’t had the financial success everyone thought it would, they all will end up failing because the RASM is far to low to win in the end. The Legacies are printing money and have absolutely mopped the floor with the ULCCs post Covid.
4. The reputation- Spirits reputation is atrocious! Spirit is one of the ****tiest airlines in the world as far as customer experience goes. They also have become one of the most hated companies in America. They are the laughing stock of light night television and the bunt of every airline joke in comedy clubs across the country. This Management team took Ned’s great airline and drove it into the fu*king pavement. There won’t be any customer tears shed when Spirit finally goes away.
5. The Blocked Merger- When Judge Young killed the deal with JetBlue, he just created a legal precedent that sealed Spirits demise. This antitrust win for the DOJ will still stand even after a bankruptcy is filed. This likely means the only players on the table left to actually be a potential merger candidate would be Frontier or Allegiant. Have fun with Uncle Franke and Indigo, they are a true model of labor relations.
6. Attrition- It’s about to skyrocket. Spirit has 20 year captains, 15 year Check Airman, and 10 year Chief Pilots pulling the rip cord. This Fall I believe attrition could hit north of 100-150 a month. They will get behind and they will not be able to catch back up. Especially when half the check airman all quit in a 6 month Span
As for bankruptcy, Chapter 11 worked for the Legacies because they either used it to merge, or they used it to shed debt, and they were too big to fail. They also owned a lot of assets that helped them survive by having collateral to back the new financing. Spirit owns next to nothing. They are down to 23 Unencumbered Airplanes and a Hangar in Detroit. There is nothing left to leverage.
In Bankrrupcy, the company also has to prove to a judge that there is a viable path forward. Spirit has been hemoraging money for 4 years in a row. They had 1 profitable quarter in the past 17 quarters. When the Judge sees there is no path forward, he will liquidate, because that will by far produce the highest level of compensation to the debt holders.
In the past 5 years, there have been 14 air carriers that went under. This has put more pilots on the street than Spirit has in its ranks by 3 fold. To say America won’t let Spirit fail in this day and era is dillusional thinking. I hope it doesn’t happen, but I’d give it at least an honest 50/50 chance at this point. Any one who actively isn’t trying to jump into a life boat is like the people that stayed on the Titanic so they could cheer on the ship.
Express Jet
Delta Private Jets
Miami Air
Pacific Airlines
Xtra Ravn
TransSates
Swift Air
Eastern Airlines 2.0
IAeroAirways
Via
Aha
Air Choice One
Compass
California Pacific
Finally somone that gets it! Excellent summary, accurate and factual. God the cheerleading in this corner of APC is hard to stomach! Never seen a more dillulsional pilot group. Reminds me of my days at Compass right before they went under.
04-09-2024 | 09:16 AM
#194
Line Holder
Joined: Oct 2021
Posts: 27
Likes: 0
consider yourself blessed not to be at an airline that’s going south. I hope spirit makes it, lots of amazing people there. People who need to put food on the table.
sitting around beating urself that the company is going u set is not good for your mental health. Yeah, a plan of action is good to have, but also, lots of people count on this airline for many reasons.
you will always have cheer leaders, that’s just peoples personalities, I for one pray they make it out for all the families that count on spirit for a source of income.
04-09-2024 | 09:55 AM
#195
Banned
Joined: Dec 2022
Posts: 88
Likes: 3
I think people like to be positive about their situation. Being a realist helps, but hope is always good to have.
consider yourself blessed not to be at an airline that’s going south. I hope spirit makes it, lots of amazing people there. People who need to put food on the table.
sitting around beating urself that the company is going u set is not good for your mental health. Yeah, a plan of action is good to have, but also, lots of people count on this airline for many reasons.
you will always have cheer leaders, that’s just peoples personalities, I for one pray they make it out for all the families that count on spirit for a source of income.
consider yourself blessed not to be at an airline that’s going south. I hope spirit makes it, lots of amazing people there. People who need to put food on the table.
sitting around beating urself that the company is going u set is not good for your mental health. Yeah, a plan of action is good to have, but also, lots of people count on this airline for many reasons.
you will always have cheer leaders, that’s just peoples personalities, I for one pray they make it out for all the families that count on spirit for a source of income.
04-09-2024 | 10:00 AM
#196
Line Holder
Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 508
Likes: 5
I think people like to be positive about their situation. Being a realist helps, but hope is always good to have.
consider yourself blessed not to be at an airline that’s going south. I hope spirit makes it, lots of amazing people there. People who need to put food on the table.
sitting around beating urself that the company is going u set is not good for your mental health. Yeah, a plan of action is good to have, but also, lots of people count on this airline for many reasons.
you will always have cheer leaders, that’s just peoples personalities, I for one pray they make it out for all the families that count on spirit for a source of income.
consider yourself blessed not to be at an airline that’s going south. I hope spirit makes it, lots of amazing people there. People who need to put food on the table.
sitting around beating urself that the company is going u set is not good for your mental health. Yeah, a plan of action is good to have, but also, lots of people count on this airline for many reasons.
you will always have cheer leaders, that’s just peoples personalities, I for one pray they make it out for all the families that count on spirit for a source of income.
04-09-2024 | 10:06 AM
#197
Line Holder
Joined: Sep 2013
Posts: 1,069
Likes: 25
Applying elsewhere is always a good idea, not just for those at Spirit (though especially good now).
To apply costs you nothing and does not require you to make any decision that will affect anything else in your life.
If you are offered an interview it only costs you a day to go and does not require you to make a decision that will affect anything else in your life.
If you are offered the job, then and only then do you have to actually make a decision that will affect anything else in your life.
If that offer is from UA/DL/AA that decision is now a complete no brainer for those a Spirit, but it is also a no-brainer for a great many airlines (all regionals).
Whether at Spirit or elsewhere, to not send out an app is beyond foolish!
04-09-2024 | 10:52 AM
#198
On Reserve
Joined: Jan 2019
Posts: 57
Likes: 21
Spirit has 6 main problems, any number of which could bring it down.
1. The Debt- Spirit is the MOST Leveraged airline in the entire industry when adjusted for size. They have 630X EBITDA to Debt due next year. Anything over 7x has historcially required bankruptcy. Spirit is at 630X in 2025.
2. The NEO Problem- By the end of the year Spirit will have 46 airplanes parked, that’s about 25% of the current fleet. By the end of next year, they will have over 90 NEOs of the fleet parked, almost half. And The 300 day turn around time from Pratt just became a 400 day turn around. This NEO problem will also be a huge show stopper for any other airlines interested in merging with Spirit.
3. The ULCC Business model- It’s dead in the United States. No one wants to be nickeled and dimed in our culture. The morons that run Frontier and Spirit have raced to the bottom of the section 8 barrel, trying to find the lowest hanging fruit in every ghetto of America. That business model fails because it does NOTHING to drive a Premium Product and high revenues. The Legacies make all their money from Credit Cards and their Premium First Class Services. Spirit is hemorigin money! Frontier is in trouble, Avelo is in trouble, Breeze hasn’t had the financial success everyone thought it would, they all will end up failing because the RASM is far to low to win in the end. The Legacies are printing money and have absolutely mopped the floor with the ULCCs post Covid.
4. The reputation- Spirits reputation is atrocious! Spirit is one of the ****tiest airlines in the world as far as customer experience goes. They also have become one of the most hated companies in America. They are the laughing stock of light night television and the bunt of every airline joke in comedy clubs across the country. This Management team took Ned’s great airline and drove it into the fu*king pavement. There won’t be any customer tears shed when Spirit finally goes away.
5. The Blocked Merger- When Judge Young killed the deal with JetBlue, he just created a legal precedent that sealed Spirits demise. This antitrust win for the DOJ will still stand even after a bankruptcy is filed. This likely means the only players on the table left to actually be a potential merger candidate would be Frontier or Allegiant. Have fun with Uncle Franke and Indigo, they are a true model of labor relations.
6. Attrition- It’s about to skyrocket. Spirit has 20 year captains, 15 year Check Airman, and 10 year Chief Pilots pulling the rip cord. This Fall I believe attrition could hit north of 100-150 a month. They will get behind and they will not be able to catch back up. Especially when half the check airman all quit in a 6 month Span
As for bankruptcy, Chapter 11 worked for the Legacies because they either used it to merge, or they used it to shed debt, and they were too big to fail. They also owned a lot of assets that helped them survive by having collateral to back the new financing. Spirit owns next to nothing. They are down to 23 Unencumbered Airplanes and a Hangar in Detroit. There is nothing left to leverage.
In Bankrrupcy, the company also has to prove to a judge that there is a viable path forward. Spirit has been hemoraging money for 4 years in a row. They had 1 profitable quarter in the past 17 quarters. When the Judge sees there is no path forward, he will liquidate, because that will by far produce the highest level of compensation to the debt holders.
In the past 5 years, there have been 14 air carriers that went under. This has put more pilots on the street than Spirit has in its ranks by 3 fold. To say America won’t let Spirit fail in this day and era is dillusional thinking. I hope it doesn’t happen, but I’d give it at least an honest 50/50 chance at this point. Any one who actively isn’t trying to jump into a life boat is like the people that stayed on the Titanic so they could cheer on the ship.
Express Jet
Delta Private Jets
Miami Air
Pacific Airlines
Xtra Ravn
TransSates
Swift Air
Eastern Airlines 2.0
IAeroAirways
Via
Aha
Air Choice One
Compass
California Pacific
1. The Debt- Spirit is the MOST Leveraged airline in the entire industry when adjusted for size. They have 630X EBITDA to Debt due next year. Anything over 7x has historcially required bankruptcy. Spirit is at 630X in 2025.
2. The NEO Problem- By the end of the year Spirit will have 46 airplanes parked, that’s about 25% of the current fleet. By the end of next year, they will have over 90 NEOs of the fleet parked, almost half. And The 300 day turn around time from Pratt just became a 400 day turn around. This NEO problem will also be a huge show stopper for any other airlines interested in merging with Spirit.
3. The ULCC Business model- It’s dead in the United States. No one wants to be nickeled and dimed in our culture. The morons that run Frontier and Spirit have raced to the bottom of the section 8 barrel, trying to find the lowest hanging fruit in every ghetto of America. That business model fails because it does NOTHING to drive a Premium Product and high revenues. The Legacies make all their money from Credit Cards and their Premium First Class Services. Spirit is hemorigin money! Frontier is in trouble, Avelo is in trouble, Breeze hasn’t had the financial success everyone thought it would, they all will end up failing because the RASM is far to low to win in the end. The Legacies are printing money and have absolutely mopped the floor with the ULCCs post Covid.
4. The reputation- Spirits reputation is atrocious! Spirit is one of the ****tiest airlines in the world as far as customer experience goes. They also have become one of the most hated companies in America. They are the laughing stock of light night television and the bunt of every airline joke in comedy clubs across the country. This Management team took Ned’s great airline and drove it into the fu*king pavement. There won’t be any customer tears shed when Spirit finally goes away.
5. The Blocked Merger- When Judge Young killed the deal with JetBlue, he just created a legal precedent that sealed Spirits demise. This antitrust win for the DOJ will still stand even after a bankruptcy is filed. This likely means the only players on the table left to actually be a potential merger candidate would be Frontier or Allegiant. Have fun with Uncle Franke and Indigo, they are a true model of labor relations.
6. Attrition- It’s about to skyrocket. Spirit has 20 year captains, 15 year Check Airman, and 10 year Chief Pilots pulling the rip cord. This Fall I believe attrition could hit north of 100-150 a month. They will get behind and they will not be able to catch back up. Especially when half the check airman all quit in a 6 month Span
As for bankruptcy, Chapter 11 worked for the Legacies because they either used it to merge, or they used it to shed debt, and they were too big to fail. They also owned a lot of assets that helped them survive by having collateral to back the new financing. Spirit owns next to nothing. They are down to 23 Unencumbered Airplanes and a Hangar in Detroit. There is nothing left to leverage.
In Bankrrupcy, the company also has to prove to a judge that there is a viable path forward. Spirit has been hemoraging money for 4 years in a row. They had 1 profitable quarter in the past 17 quarters. When the Judge sees there is no path forward, he will liquidate, because that will by far produce the highest level of compensation to the debt holders.
In the past 5 years, there have been 14 air carriers that went under. This has put more pilots on the street than Spirit has in its ranks by 3 fold. To say America won’t let Spirit fail in this day and era is dillusional thinking. I hope it doesn’t happen, but I’d give it at least an honest 50/50 chance at this point. Any one who actively isn’t trying to jump into a life boat is like the people that stayed on the Titanic so they could cheer on the ship.
Express Jet
Delta Private Jets
Miami Air
Pacific Airlines
Xtra Ravn
TransSates
Swift Air
Eastern Airlines 2.0
IAeroAirways
Via
Aha
Air Choice One
Compass
California Pacific
04-09-2024 | 11:48 AM
#199
Banned
Joined: Dec 2022
Posts: 88
Likes: 3
In addition to all that. Post COVID and currently, US aviation as a whole is literally in the best of times in the history of aviation. Hate to be a doomsayer, but it can't get any better so there's only one other direction. And if you can't make money in this environment, not sure how it can make money if/when, even a mild reccession, does come. Seem like Spirit is backed into a corner and need some sort of miracle to make it out. With the CEO close to tears in the townhall, I got a feeling he sees what's coming.
04-09-2024 | 12:00 PM
#200
Banned
Joined: Dec 2023
Posts: 534
Likes: 0
United, Southwest and Alaska have all stopped hiring. AA, DL, HA will not be for behind.
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