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Spirit Now Sure As It Emerges From Bankruptcy


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Spirit Now Sure As It Emerges From Bankruptcy

Old 07-20-2025 | 08:41 AM
  #591  
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Originally Posted by HoustonRockets
Historically speaking, bad news comes on a Friday.

Any insights to what the best case scenario versus worst case scenarios could be ?
Ted left so the bad news friday is history.
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Old 07-20-2025 | 08:59 AM
  #592  
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Originally Posted by BlueWater
Sorry but no, incorrect.

We used just under $100m per month of fuel in Q1. And page 1 of the 10Q reflects exactly that that. Look more carefully, and explained below.

You must add together the predecessor column which is pre bankruptcy exit, from Jan 1 - March 31 and the successor period which is post from March 13 - 31. Numbers in this section of the 10q are in thousands.

So the predecessor fuel amount for Q1 is 219,922 and the successor amount is 60,797. This Q1 total of both accounting periods is 280,719 …In thousands.

so the avg fuel per month used is $93,573,000… just under $100m per month.

Total GALLONS used and reported to Bureau of Transportation Statistics is 111,087,000 for Q1.

10Q:
https://ir.spirit.com/financials/sec...s/default.aspx

Mandatory Gov Consumption Reporting Site:
https://www.transtats.bts.gov/fuel.asp
DOH! I see that now. Thanks for the correction; that 10Q is one hot mess.
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Old 07-20-2025 | 09:31 AM
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Originally Posted by 3inthegreen
The Board is meeting with the CEO tomorrow to finalize which path they wanna take. My guess is by Friday the announcements will be made.
What specifically do you believe, by educated guess, will be in said announcements?

Personally I'm hoping this week is when American calls with my class date. I'm punching the F out like I should have done two years ago.
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Old 07-20-2025 | 01:30 PM
  #594  
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Originally Posted by shrsailplanes
——deleted——
Originally Posted by CatPilot1
Deleted…….
You do know you can delete a post?
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Old 07-20-2025 | 02:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Noisecanceller
I don’t expect anyone hired today to be a WB FO or NB CA in 2 years. This isn’t 2022 anymore.

If you’re a Spirit CA making north of $400 W2 going to $120hr on on guarantee is yeah about an 80% cut

You also have to calculate the difference in earnings each year it takes to get back to that pay you left and then the earnings you could make on that money and the lost retirement contribution. It’s a massive investment to start over. If you’re young and/or junior it’s a no brainer. If you’re middle aged and senior the math is much more complex.

If you have kids in influential years and you only have a few short years before they leave home it makes giving up the schedule voluntarily very hard. When you know you can get any day off you want for anything it’s hard
Went from yr11NK commuting to in base UA yr1. So from about $300K (4 19hr 4days a month) to $120K is a 60% cut before tax. Average about 85 hours on reserve with the sit pay (any sit over 2 hours pays 1 minute per 2 minutes), "long" duty day pay (any minute over 10 hours pays a minute), reschedule pay (assigned trip got "extended" into my last day of reserve and got 8 hours of pay and a compensation day) being home more than at NK. Yr2 should be $190K, Yr 3 $240K. Lost income $350K if I can upgrade year 4, and then it will be about $100K per year more, so about 4 years to break even.. And if I don't get the upgrade and stay on the NB, taking my lost commute time into account it is pretty close if you get some profit sharing and the higher contribution. Yeah, it is not fun seeing the hole in my account right now, but after tax it isn't close to 80% less. Worked Xmas, but was off the 4th of July. Definitely wasn't my plan a few years ago, but I am still happy.
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Old 07-20-2025 | 03:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Lincoln Osiris
Our Q1 losses were over 500 mill this year?
Not losses. Negative cash flow.

Part of the BK was a new "clean slate" financial reporting system because a bunch of debt has been converted to equity. Spirit isn't performing any better than it was financially, its just not paying as much debt. The problem is the market can see this and this is reflected in the value of the company. If someone wanted to buy Spirit that debt will still have to be paid off through a buyout offer, which is no different than acquiring it. If anything this makes the debt harder to clear unless the new owners will take some kind of note, which I doubt they will do. This is why they rejected the Frontier offer. They want their $2.1B or whatever it is now.

The other problem is Spirit should not still be burning any cash in June/July. I've read on here that Spirit is losing $800 per flight as well as Spirit is "only barely burning cash". Neither of those are good, because an airline should be bringing in a lot of cash in Q2 and Q3 to make it through Q4 and Q1. Especially when $500M of cash disappeared in Q1 of 2025. I don't think Spirit has enough liquidity to survive that again. This is why Spirit deferred planes. No cash to spend on CapEx and loan terms would have been horrible.

This is why pilots have left and are still leaving.

Pilots might believe that you can't afford to go from $300k to $125K (1st year at a major), but if this place shuts down pilots will go from $300k to $0 and then there will be a 9 month to 2 year period to interview, CJO and class date before the pay starts again. The people that left just saved themselves from being jobless for an unknown period of time and took control of their destiny.
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Old 07-20-2025 | 04:00 PM
  #597  
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Originally Posted by FriendlyPilot
Not losses. Negative cash flow.

Part of the BK was a new "clean slate" financial reporting system because a bunch of debt has been converted to equity. Spirit isn't performing any better than it was financially, its just not paying as much debt. The problem is the market can see this and this is reflected in the value of the company. If someone wanted to buy Spirit that debt will still have to be paid off through a buyout offer, which is no different than acquiring it. If anything this makes the debt harder to clear unless the new owners will take some kind of note, which I doubt they will do. This is why they rejected the Frontier offer. They want their $2.1B or whatever it is now.

The other problem is Spirit should not still be burning any cash in June/July. I've read on here that Spirit is losing $800 per flight as well as Spirit is "only barely burning cash". Neither of those are good, because an airline should be bringing in a lot of cash in Q2 and Q3 to make it through Q4 and Q1. Especially when $500M of cash disappeared in Q1 of 2025. I don't think Spirit has enough liquidity to survive that again. This is why Spirit deferred planes. No cash to spend on CapEx and loan terms would have been horrible.

This is why pilots have left and are still leaving.

Pilots might believe that you can't afford to go from $300k to $125K (1st year at a major), but if this place shuts down pilots will go from $300k to $0 and then there will be a 9 month to 2 year period to interview, CJO and class date before the pay starts again. The people that left just saved themselves from being jobless for an unknown period of time and took control of their destiny.
Thank you for saying the quiet part out loud
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Old 07-20-2025 | 04:46 PM
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Originally Posted by FriendlyPilot
Not losses. Negative cash flow.

Part of the BK was a new "clean slate" financial reporting system because a bunch of debt has been converted to equity. Spirit isn't performing any better than it was financially, its just not paying as much debt. The problem is the market can see this and this is reflected in the value of the company. If someone wanted to buy Spirit that debt will still have to be paid off through a buyout offer, which is no different than acquiring it. If anything this makes the debt harder to clear unless the new owners will take some kind of note, which I doubt they will do. This is why they rejected the Frontier offer. They want their $2.1B or whatever it is now.

The other problem is Spirit should not still be burning any cash in June/July. I've read on here that Spirit is losing $800 per flight as well as Spirit is "only barely burning cash". Neither of those are good, because an airline should be bringing in a lot of cash in Q2 and Q3 to make it through Q4 and Q1. Especially when $500M of cash disappeared in Q1 of 2025. I don't think Spirit has enough liquidity to survive that again. This is why Spirit deferred planes. No cash to spend on CapEx and loan terms would have been horrible.

This is why pilots have left and are still leaving.

Pilots might believe that you can't afford to go from $300k to $125K (1st year at a major), but if this place shuts down pilots will go from $300k to $0 and then there will be a 9 month to 2 year period to interview, CJO and class date before the pay starts again. The people that left just saved themselves from being jobless for an unknown period of time and took control of their destiny.
Overall Assessment

• Inaccurate: The dismissal of losses (Spirit has both losses and negative cash flow), the claim that debt-to-equity makes debt “harder to clear” in a buyout, and the reason for rejecting Frontier’s offer (not about a $2.1 billion valuation) are incorrect.

• Speculative: The “clean slate financial reporting system” is a loose interpretation of fresh start accounting (partially accurate). The $800 per flight loss and $500 million Q1 cash burn are unverified but plausible given Spirit’s financials.

Key Takeaways

• Spirit’s Q1 2025 financials show a $142.6 million net loss, with a $10.9 million loss in the Successor period, reflecting ongoing unprofitability despite restructuring.

• The debt-to-equity conversion and liquidity measures (e.g., aircraft deferrals, financing) have improved Spirit’s balance sheet, but operational challenges and a competitive environment threaten sustainability.

• The post overstates or misinterprets some aspects (e.g., Frontier offer, debt in buyouts) and relies on unverified figures.
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Old 07-20-2025 | 05:05 PM
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I was pretty sure the debt converted to equity was also replaced with new debt in the exact same amount just due a few years from instead of next year. So essentially they got the company in exchange for moving the debt back a couple years. We are still servicing it as far as I know but I’m no corporate finance savant.

The bankruptcy improved nothing really other than they didn’t foreclose (liquidate) the business bc there was nothing to sell and get their $2B back. So they wiped out the shareholders and took control and pushed the $2b to the right.

Last edited by Noisecanceller; 07-20-2025 at 05:31 PM.
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Old 07-20-2025 | 07:31 PM
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Originally Posted by Lincoln Osiris
Overall Assessment

• Inaccurate: The dismissal of losses (Spirit has both losses and negative cash flow), the claim that debt-to-equity makes debt “harder to clear” in a buyout, and the reason for rejecting Frontier’s offer (not about a $2.1 billion valuation) are incorrect.

• Speculative: The “clean slate financial reporting system” is a loose interpretation of fresh start accounting (partially accurate). The $800 per flight loss and $500 million Q1 cash burn are unverified but plausible given Spirit’s financials.

Key Takeaways

• Spirit’s Q1 2025 financials show a $142.6 million net loss, with a $10.9 million loss in the Successor period, reflecting ongoing unprofitability despite restructuring.

• The debt-to-equity conversion and liquidity measures (e.g., aircraft deferrals, financing) have improved Spirit’s balance sheet, but operational challenges and a competitive environment threaten sustainability.

• The post overstates or misinterprets some aspects (e.g., Frontier offer, debt in buyouts) and relies on unverified figures.

This situation is a classic example of the Stockdale Paradox: the tension between unwavering hope and brutal honesty. Adm. James Stockdale, a POW, survived by balancing optimism with facing harsh realities. Us as pilots with monumental career decisions can be clouded clinging to hope while ignoring facts, like a failing mission or mechanical issue, can lead to disaster.

Denial clouds judgment; accepting truth empowers decisions.


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