Spirit Now Sure As It Emerges From Bankruptcy
07-21-2025 | 01:29 PM
#641
Banned
Joined: Dec 2014
Posts: 718
Likes: 9
My plan is wait it out. We have a difference of opinion on this. Your thinking is, financial trouble = ch7 no more airline. If that was the case AA, DL, UA, and SW would have been gone a long time ago. My thinking is either things will improve or another merger will happen. But to think Spirit will become the largest airline in US history to liquidate is a big stretch. That would be a huge hit to the market place and the government would likely step in prior to that step as the airline sector falls under infrastructure.
The entirety of the DOJ's argument in court was about seats in the market place. Well if spirit goes ch7 there is no guarantee any of those seats stay in the US as foreign subsidized carriers desperate for A/C will pay way above market value to get them. So it is likely none of those aircraft stay in the US at that point. If you were a senior pilot at US Airways, Northwest, or Continental do you think jumping ship back in the 2000's and starting all over again would have been a smart move? Me thinks not.
I look at things in a logical historical way. Others who have not been in this industry long prefer the dramatic unfounded speculative drama route.
The entirety of the DOJ's argument in court was about seats in the market place. Well if spirit goes ch7 there is no guarantee any of those seats stay in the US as foreign subsidized carriers desperate for A/C will pay way above market value to get them. So it is likely none of those aircraft stay in the US at that point. If you were a senior pilot at US Airways, Northwest, or Continental do you think jumping ship back in the 2000's and starting all over again would have been a smart move? Me thinks not.
I look at things in a logical historical way. Others who have not been in this industry long prefer the dramatic unfounded speculative drama route.
Here is what you are missing. US Airways, Northwest, Continental all had valuable assets and a brand that wasn't hated by all of America. US Airways had CLT and PHL and over 300 working Airbuses and a profitable Shuttle Route. Northwest had MSP and DTW and Lucrative Pacific Routes and 747s to run those routes. Continental had Houston and EWR which made it attractive to United to fill in the South and NorthEast parts of the US. What does Spirit have? 2 Hangars? A fleet made up of airplanes that either can't fly, or are so upside down on, they can't even sell? An A320 simulator they sponsored in DFW with a partnership with AFG. Spirit has already sold off everything they own that had any value. The NEOs combined with the crushing debt will block any mergers or acquisitions. No one want's to take those two problems on. Now, thanks to the worst Scope language in the industry, a few of you might get lucky enough to be fragmented off to the airlines that do buy whatever pieces are left and sold by the creditors committee. And as far as congress goes......there isn't one Congressman or Senator that will lose 30 minutes of sleep if this airline goes under. It's not important to the infrastructure of American business, nor is it worth the Fed pumping money into to save. Spirit isn't just laughing stock of light night television, its one of the most hated public companies in America. Ben did this when he unapologetically shi!t in Americans mouth for over half a decade. Even Bob and then Ted couldn't right the ship and recover from the brand that he destroyed. I am also convinced that all of the Legacies, LCC's and their special interest groups are also actively advocating the demise of the ULCC's. Nothing would fix capacity and yields quicker than if the ULCC's went away. You guys got totally f*cked by the government when they blocked the JetBlue merger. Now that same government will watch this airline go away. No airline has ever made it when they started attempted to shrink by 20%, 40%, 50%. Selling the Pacific didn't save PanAm. Selling South America didn't save Eastern. You sound much more like a PanAm or Eastern pilot in January of 1991 than you do a US Air or Northwest Pilot in 2004. You wanna put your Mortgage, 401K, and kids college funds on the line for Spirit Airlines, you do you bro. But it seems most of the pilots who have seen whats about to happen, all turned in applications to Legacy carriers this past week for a reason. Best of luck.
07-21-2025 | 01:34 PM
#643
Old Hire
Joined: Feb 2020
Posts: 73
Likes: 13
From: 320 CP
Here is what you are missing. US Airways, Northwest, Continental all had valuable assets and a brand that wasn't hated by all of America. US Airways had CLT and PHL and over 300 working Airbuses and a profitable Shuttle Route. Northwest had MSP and DTW and Lucrative Pacific Routes and 747s to run those routes. Continental had Houston and EWR which made it attractive to United to fill in the South and NorthEast parts of the US. What does Spirit have? 2 Hangars? A fleet made up of airplanes that either can't fly, or are so upside down on, they can't even sell? An A320 simulator they sponsored in DFW with a partnership with AFG. Spirit has already sold off everything they own that had any value. The NEOs combined with the crushing debt will block any mergers or acquisitions. No one want's to take those two problems on. Now, thanks to the worst Scope language in the industry, a few of you might get lucky enough to be fragmented off to the airlines that do buy whatever pieces are left and sold by the creditors committee. And as far as congress goes......there isn't one Congressman or Senator that will lose 30 minutes of sleep if this airline goes under. It's not important to the infrastructure of American business, nor is it worth the Fed pumping money into to save. Spirit isn't just laughing stock of light night television, its one of the most hated public companies in America. Ben did this when he unapologetically shi!t in Americans mouth for over half a decade. Even Bob and then Ted couldn't right the ship and recover from the brand that he destroyed. I am also convinced that all of the Legacies, LCC's and their special interest groups are also actively advocating the demise of the ULCC's. Nothing would fix capacity and yields quicker than if the ULCC's went away. You guys got totally f*cked by the government when they blocked the JetBlue merger. Now that same government will watch this airline go away. No airline has ever made it when they started attempted to shrink by 20%, 40%, 50%. Selling the Pacific didn't save PanAm. Selling South America didn't save Eastern. You sound much more like a PanAm or Eastern pilot in January of 1991 than you do a US Air or Northwest Pilot in 2004. You wanna put your Mortgage, 401K, and kids college funds on the line for Spirit Airlines, you do you bro. But it seems most of the pilots who have seen whats about to happen, all turned in applications to Legacy carriers this past week for a reason. Best of luck.
07-21-2025 | 01:35 PM
#644
Line Holder
Joined: Sep 2020
Posts: 1,564
Likes: 345
07-21-2025 | 01:38 PM
#645
Line Holder
Joined: Sep 2020
Posts: 1,564
Likes: 345
United moved 105,829,000 passengers (mainline) in 2024
if you divide out their profit per passenger ticket sold it’s about $43.
Now solely on revenue excluding the “other operating revenue” etc it’s much lower at $10 per passenger ticket. So $33 per ticket profit is add ons. (Kinda seems like the ultimate ULCC)
buried somewhere in some filings is the amounts that chase and whoever else paid United but I don’t have time to find them. I’d guess it’s a lot more than 50%
people pay 200+ annually now just to hold one of the United cards.
Without the credit card mentality there would be a much different market.
if you divide out their profit per passenger ticket sold it’s about $43.
Now solely on revenue excluding the “other operating revenue” etc it’s much lower at $10 per passenger ticket. So $33 per ticket profit is add ons. (Kinda seems like the ultimate ULCC)
buried somewhere in some filings is the amounts that chase and whoever else paid United but I don’t have time to find them. I’d guess it’s a lot more than 50%
people pay 200+ annually now just to hold one of the United cards.
Without the credit card mentality there would be a much different market.
Ceteris Paribus applies here. You can't just take away revenue anymore more than saying "Without First Class The Big 3 would not make a profit". There would be other seats there and they would create revenue as well.
07-21-2025 | 01:45 PM
#647
Line Holder
Joined: Sep 2020
Posts: 1,564
Likes: 345
My plan is wait it out. We have a difference of opinion on this. Your thinking is, financial trouble = ch7 no more airline. If that was the case AA, DL, UA, and SW would have been gone a long time ago. My thinking is either things will improve or another merger will happen. But to think Spirit will become the largest airline in US history to liquidate is a big stretch. That would be a huge hit to the market place and the government would likely step in prior to that step as the airline sector falls under infrastructure.
The entirety of the DOJ's argument in court was about seats in the market place. Well if spirit goes ch7 there is no guarantee any of those seats stay in the US as foreign subsidized carriers desperate for A/C will pay way above market value to get them. So it is likely none of those aircraft stay in the US at that point. If you were a senior pilot at US Airways, Northwest, or Continental do you think jumping ship back in the 2000's and starting all over again would have been a smart move? Me thinks not.
I look at things in a logical historical way. Others who have not been in this industry long prefer the dramatic unfounded speculative drama route.
The entirety of the DOJ's argument in court was about seats in the market place. Well if spirit goes ch7 there is no guarantee any of those seats stay in the US as foreign subsidized carriers desperate for A/C will pay way above market value to get them. So it is likely none of those aircraft stay in the US at that point. If you were a senior pilot at US Airways, Northwest, or Continental do you think jumping ship back in the 2000's and starting all over again would have been a smart move? Me thinks not.
I look at things in a logical historical way. Others who have not been in this industry long prefer the dramatic unfounded speculative drama route.
Eastern went BK and was a much larger airline than Spirit. They were the largest airline domestically in the US for total enplanements less than 6 years before they shut down and 3rd largest behind United and Delta. Obviously not that large when they closed their doors because they started shrinking, but a lot of pilots there said the same thing about going out of business. Same at PanAm.
07-21-2025 | 02:00 PM
#648
On Reserve
Joined: Feb 2018
Posts: 111
Likes: 21
From: A320 captain
Spirit, Frontier, and all other ULCCs were born based on using predatory pricing against the big 3. And they were extremely successful.
To combat the ULCCs, Delta came up with Song and United launched Ted - alter ego LCCs within each airline. Both were resounding failures.
At some point in 2012, Delta launched Basic Economy to compete on a limited basis with Spirit and Frontier. It was marginally successful. Then in 2016/7, both United and American launched Basic Economy. All 3 airlines returned the favor with predatory pricing against the ULCCs.
And Spirit hasn't turned a profit since 2019. The same with Frontier, except they finally turned a small profit in 2024. That won't last.
The ULCC model is dead, killed by Basic Economy.
What the ULCCs did was cause all airlines to lose money on passenger tickets. The reason why the big 3 are able to make a profit is their credit card programs. If not for that, they'd also be losing money.
The entire industry has changed and Spirit cannot reinvent itself enough to be profitable. The big 3 will price their Basic Economy product with both seats and price points where Spirit and Frontier (and JetBlue and Southwest) die a death of 1000 cuts. Spirit and Frontier don't have lucrative enough cargo and credit card contracts to make up for the passenger losses. (I can remember working a midwinter flight LAX-LHR on the 777 where we had a mid-teens pax load. I asked how much money we were losing on the flight - we weren't; the belly was full of profitable cargo).
This is a brutal business with razor thin margins. And right now, passenger margins are negative for almost every airline including the big 3.
Can Spirit suvive? I suppose if they stop flying to major cities and go with an Allegiant, Avelo or Breeze model of servicing secondary cities. As a much, much smaller airline. If they don't run out of money first.
To combat the ULCCs, Delta came up with Song and United launched Ted - alter ego LCCs within each airline. Both were resounding failures.
At some point in 2012, Delta launched Basic Economy to compete on a limited basis with Spirit and Frontier. It was marginally successful. Then in 2016/7, both United and American launched Basic Economy. All 3 airlines returned the favor with predatory pricing against the ULCCs.
And Spirit hasn't turned a profit since 2019. The same with Frontier, except they finally turned a small profit in 2024. That won't last.
The ULCC model is dead, killed by Basic Economy.
What the ULCCs did was cause all airlines to lose money on passenger tickets. The reason why the big 3 are able to make a profit is their credit card programs. If not for that, they'd also be losing money.
The entire industry has changed and Spirit cannot reinvent itself enough to be profitable. The big 3 will price their Basic Economy product with both seats and price points where Spirit and Frontier (and JetBlue and Southwest) die a death of 1000 cuts. Spirit and Frontier don't have lucrative enough cargo and credit card contracts to make up for the passenger losses. (I can remember working a midwinter flight LAX-LHR on the 777 where we had a mid-teens pax load. I asked how much money we were losing on the flight - we weren't; the belly was full of profitable cargo).
This is a brutal business with razor thin margins. And right now, passenger margins are negative for almost every airline including the big 3.
Can Spirit suvive? I suppose if they stop flying to major cities and go with an Allegiant, Avelo or Breeze model of servicing secondary cities. As a much, much smaller airline. If they don't run out of money first.
Cheers
07-21-2025 | 02:01 PM
#649
Line Holder
Joined: Sep 2020
Posts: 1,564
Likes: 345
Here is what you are missing. US Airways, Northwest, Continental all had valuable assets and a brand that wasn't hated by all of America. US Airways had CLT and PHL and over 300 working Airbuses and a profitable Shuttle Route. Northwest had MSP and DTW and Lucrative Pacific Routes and 747s to run those routes. Continental had Houston and EWR which made it attractive to United to fill in the South and NorthEast parts of the US. What does Spirit have? 2 Hangars? A fleet made up of airplanes that either can't fly, or are so upside down on, they can't even sell? An A320 simulator they sponsored in DFW with a partnership with AFG. Spirit has already sold off everything they own that had any value. The NEOs combined with the crushing debt will block any mergers or acquisitions. No one want's to take those two problems on. Now, thanks to the worst Scope language in the industry, a few of you might get lucky enough to be fragmented off to the airlines that do buy whatever pieces are left and sold by the creditors committee.
United somehow was able to order 270 A321 NEOs/XLRs which are already being delivered (not the XLR yet). So it seems that there were a lot of order positions still available.
Order numbers taken from Airbus.com Orders and Deliveries website. The leases aren't included.
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