I'm 50/50 on what happens next. I can imagine the worst happening because that is how this career can be sometimes, but I also know to never say never because wild things come out of left field seemingly overnight.

It's a toss up IMO.

 

Airlines confidential covers it a bit again. This time with JP Morgan analysts. Again nothing ground breaking but it’s good to hear from professionals vs this forum.

 

I'll check it out

 

TLDR

sum up what J.P. Morgan analysts think

 

I love airlines confidential!! Sponsored by Pratt & Whitney “Dependable Engines”. Definitely not biased! Never have they mentioned the issues that Pratt has caused this airline. Spirit is only paying $20 million a month for parked airplanes.

 

The problem is you are not framing things in a way of what "can happen" you are framing things in a way of what "will happen" see previous quotes of yours.

 

the shortest possible answer is “the short answer to your question, Henry, is it's difficult for me to envision spirit as a standalone airline entity in two to three years' time.”


They talk about how the sum may be less than the parts, the gates and slots aren’t cut and dry, it’s unclear how much value is actually in the owned/financed airplanes, they borrowed against a loyalty program that is not very valuable, maintenance hangars and buildings….It’s all difficult to truly quantify and unclear how it will turn out. Reaffirmation or possibly new information to some regarding the previous and current bankruptcy. They go back in time to discuss the merger, unintended consequences, lack of push by Ted in the failing airline argument, the red flags signaling trouble even when the airline stock was at $20.

I can only hope for the best for the Spirit team whether the decision is made to stay or go. It’s precarious but not over yet.

 

They certainly have the pockets for it. It’s the only possibility I see for Spirit. Frontier is long gone. You can take that to the bank.

 

adding on: they agree with SK that basic economy has beaten the ULCC model in the US. the niche for “spill carriers” has shrunk. Reading between the lines, allegiant and Suncountry are probably viable, but maybe not frontier

 

I don't believe this is true. I think this is what happened.

The same day someone posted that they heard Spirit had DIP financing, articles like this were already coming out. https://airlinegeeks.com/2025/09/09/...gency-funding/

This wasn't DIP financing. This was the $275M revolving credit that Spirit drew right before filing BK when their credit card issuer told them they wanted $50M plus $3M a day in credit card holdbacks (until they get $600M) just in case they have to return credit card purchases for tickets people bought on Spirit.

Even though the credit line was fully drawn prior to filing BK, the court still has to approve it because you can't just borrow a bunch of money and then file BK. There are timeframes where these can be reversed. Obviously whoever gave them the credit line (I think US Bank) didn't try to reverse it, but also remember they are going to holding onto a bunch of Spirit's cash so they are not really at risk of not getting paid back.

Because the court approved it, the articles that came out made it seem like this was some "new financing", but it was actually guaranteed from BK1 and hadn't been pulled until just recently (probably because its a very high interest rate). Its probably also secured and even in a senior position to all the other debt.