This is what I should cling to? The hopes that Mexican ULCCs which have no Unions and pay their Captains $80,000 a year buy a 49% interest in us so we can have a Code Share via Cancun with Volaris? This is what’s going to save us now from the Billions of debt and the total lack of any profits going on 6 years in a row?

 

You must have missed the part that this isn’t Mexico

 

The big picture is that those that control billions and multiple airlines still have a goal and as recently as a year ago had Spirit as a part of that goal. Will it happen or succeed? I don’t know but hope is not lost yet.

 

You are talking about Indigo representing Frontier? This maybe would have worked back in 2022. But now, it would be like when KMart bought Sears.

 

Pretty damned accurate.

 

I don’t see the comparison to two struggling legacy retailers. If anything that would be more like the US Airways and AA merger. Spirit frontier could be compared to dollar tree buying family dollar, which didn’t work, but I think comparing airlines to retail (that were greatly affected by Amazon) is a lazy take.


The Monthly Fee Statement of Davis Polk & Wardwell shows that they had multiple offers to review at the end of December.
The Viva and Volaris merger is just a hint that indigo and Franke are shaking things up.

Lastly does a 10% cap on credit cards interest hurt legacies enough that basic economy can’t be subsidized to the same degree? Those effects are far off (if it happens at all) but the industry is constantly changing and Franke may still think having a bigger ULCC with low CASM puts you in a position to succeed in the long run.

 

The 10% cap was on a "truth" post, so that's not exactly a legally binding anything. Second of all, the "truth" post says it is only for one year, so what impact will that have? Third, the Trump admin already scrubbed a Biden policy that limited credit card fees to $8 a month which would have saved American families $10 billion per year, so you can see which side off the aisle Trump is going to side with. I don't think 10% is gonna happen, but I guess we shall see.

 

My question is does basic economy set the low end of the prices or do the ULCCs? If it’s BE than ya the ULCCs are probably in big trouble. According to the, very old now and prior to BE, study describing the jetblue effect the low end sets the prices. So If we aren’t fighting with each other do we get to ratchet up the prices over time? Do we get rid of overlap to compete more effectively? Certainly more possible.

Frontier is currently showing a turn around from massive losses to a profit in Q4. It’s not a trend yet but it’s a start. New CEO, new VP of flight ops who happens to have experience in mergers, new CP incoming, investment in seats, major backend processes, 10% fleet growth and a large block hour increase in 2025. Then Indigo is trying to merge two Mexican carriers to be the dominant Mexican airline who would also happen to have a code share with possible the only American ULCC. I just have a hard time seeing all of these as coincidences any longer and see them as more of a plan that was supposed to happen twice before now.

Will it happen and even if it does will it matter? I have no idea but I’m cautiously optimistic.

 

Except KMart and Sears both went under, and US Airways and American went on to become one of the largest airlines in the world and is the direct reason we got our a$$es beat with this basic economy tickets.

 

Lets just say you are right about ULCCs setting the price. As a stand alone, we have no chance given our new route network. What do we fly to, 4 airports west of the Mississippi now? B6 just announced FLL to DFW. Sharks are in the water and offering destinations 3x a week isn’t good for reattracting customers we have driven away.

And let’s say there is a Merger, we don’t have the cash on hand right now to make payroll at the end of the month unless we get another round of DIP financing this week. Zero chance we can make it long enough to go through the regulatory approval to complete an entire merger. We will be out of liquidity by the time we have our first scheduled hearing with the DOJ.