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01/01/26 means nothing!
Revenue in 1Q, which is historically very low in the industry, will be the deciding factor on Spirit's survival, bar being acquired. I don't see them making it into March without some further bail out miracle or being purchased. There's just no path to the spring break ramp up for revenue. |
Aww, I didn't make the list.
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the company is floating on DIP financing at this point. and its maturing July 14th.
unless there is a miracle turn-around over the next 6 months the company will not have enough money to pay back the DIP and exit bankruptcy. this is a problem because DIP financing takes super priority. from prior experience, when management pilots starts leaving the end is near..... also not getting the full trench of DIP financing during the last scare doesn't make me fell all warm and fuzzy. |
Originally Posted by TheCalmCaptain
(Post 3987129)
In just a few hours it will be 2026 and I’m proud to announce, Kirby was wrong! We are still here and more resilient and determined than ever. Kirby tried everything to put us out of business from mirroring our à la cart business model, undercutting prices on our routes, obsessively bad mouthing us, failed attempt to purchase targeted assets and last but not least teaming up with JetBlue to drive our FLL yields down. Well, we’re still here!
I’m so proud of this “down with the ship” pilot group. 2026 is going to be a great year for us! Below is the list of the relentless “Spirit is liquidating by the end of 2025” cheerleaders. Sorry guys, you were wrong. Noisecaceller SSlow Flyokish Name user Friendly pilot Nry8 Busboi StoneQOLdcrazy LNAVVNAVPATH DIRKDIGGLER9999 GPULLRSHRSAILPLANES CINCODEMAYO Fettywap Putzin FW90 Halon1211 Washout Symbian simian Jules Winfield Bluejuice01 Washout Bluespoon BoeingBrat TAFsMATTER PowderKeg Checkgear flier320 Jac3d |
Originally Posted by WHACKMASTER
(Post 3987456)
What mental illness looks like ^^^^^
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Originally Posted by Lincoln Osiris
(Post 3987463)
I mean to be fair how would you feel if people from other airlines came on the SWA forums daily to tell you how you weren't going to have a job soon? The obsession with the Spirit forums from those who don't even work here since the second bankruptcy will forever baffle me.
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Originally Posted by JulesWinfield
(Post 3987200)
I believe those regionals only allowed you to retain longevity and pay, not seniority.
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Originally Posted by Popeye0537
(Post 3987505)
Republic allowed you 1 yr to come back at full seniority, and 5 yrs to come back at 50%. Stipulation was you need to fly a larger aircraft than they had on property ie bus/boeing
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Originally Posted by jack3d
(Post 3987147)
Incoming thread drift....
So let's say NK gets bought by a real airline (not Frontier) in the near future. Can SPA ALPA negotiate a clause that lets all of the pilots who left during the BKs make a return for the new airline? I recently heard of some airlines allowing pilots to come back and retain seniority, pay, etc if done within something like 6 months. I know that starting over is a voluntary event, but it feels like a lot of us really didn't have much of a choice this specific effed up situation. |
Originally Posted by jack3d
(Post 3987393)
That's kind of what I was curious about. It's not exactly way out of left field then.
Not suggesting that it should be that way as I know there are varying opinions either way, but thanks for confirming that is has definitely happened before at certain carriers. |
Originally Posted by Lincoln Osiris
(Post 3987497)
Has nothing to do with "safe space" stop being a child. But the obsession with Spirit failing (especially those that left, like yourself) gets old on the daily just repeating the same thing over and over again. Hence the list, hence your now ensuing butt hurt.
Happy to have made the list, Spirit won’t make it another 12 months without an acquisition. Time is almost up and the last rats on the ship that can leave are jumping. Best of luck yellow bus bros |
Originally Posted by jack3d
(Post 3987147)
I recently heard of some airlines allowing pilots to come back and retain seniority, pay, etc if done within something like 6 months. Basically you can’t use it for another regional. The spirit of the language is to give a pilot some type of safety net in the event they have a washout of training, family can’t function under the new commute………… It’s not designed for people come back to a carrier that they thought was bust and will now resurrect itself along with their career expectations. |
Originally Posted by Shrek
(Post 3987544)
Not a chance….
The only context in which this could be negotiated would be SLI. While not utterly impossible it is far beyond anything an arbitrator would remotely impose so it would have to be negotiated with the acquiring airline's union. I'm also guessing the company would have to approve since they're basically taking people they're not obligated to take in an SLI context. Any why would an acquiring union even agree to bring back people who will end up senior to any of their people? Only way would be a staple. |
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
(Post 3987783)
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Originally Posted by Lincoln Osiris
(Post 3987789)
I'm not sure I get it. Is the stock price of a bankrupt company that already said they will be cancelling all shares supposed to somehow be relevant?
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Originally Posted by PNWFlyer
(Post 3987793)
this is from the guy that said American was going bankrupt 2 years ago.
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Originally Posted by Lincoln Osiris
(Post 3987801)
PLEASE find and quote where I said that because I can guarantee you I did not.
You did and I don't think you can go back that far anymore. |
Originally Posted by 8JRMfortheyear
(Post 3987804)
You did and I don't this you can go back that far anymore.
ps; I find it really weird that you guys think you remember what people posted 2 YEARS ago on APC. A life you need my friend. |
ADP Level 3
lets get off our asses and pick up OT. wait, no 200% OT and we just took a pay cut? I think I’ll sit it out this weekend. BTW why is BENDO still employed here and on payroll ???? |
Originally Posted by SpeedBrakes
(Post 3987807)
ADP Level 3
lets get off our asses and pick up OT. wait, no 200% OT and we just took a pay cut? I think I’ll sit it out this weekend. BTW why is BENDO still employed here and on payroll ???? |
Maybe Kirby was right after all???
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Originally Posted by HoustonRockets
(Post 3987816)
Historically people leaving dump a lot of sick bank could be a sign of a large exodus
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Originally Posted by SterileMan
(Post 3987830)
If Spirit can fire these FAs, it’s a plus.
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Originally Posted by SterileMan
(Post 3987830)
If Spirit can fire these FAs, it’s a plus.
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Originally Posted by SterileMan
(Post 3987830)
If Spirit can fire these FAs, it’s a plus.
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Originally Posted by Lincoln Osiris
(Post 3987801)
PLEASE find and quote where I said that because I can guarantee you I did not.
he has been on here for years predicting AA will go Bankrupt because they have debt, bla bla bla. [QUOTE=Excargodog;3579590]Hey, I’m happy for you guys. You have greatly exceeded expectations. If we can just keep junk bond rates from going too high or the predicted recession from getting too bad you may well power right out of the debt load. Good on you. You going bankrupt would have hurt us all.[/QUOTE he has stuff like this all over in a 2021 AA Bankruptcy poll. |
Originally Posted by PNWFlyer
(Post 3987989)
not you, Excargodog. The one your were quoting.
he has been on here for years predicting AA will go Bankrupt because they have debt, bla bla bla. https://americanairlines.gcs-web.com...ancial-results that is a continual drain on their profits. Now my guess is that they’ll survive, but they are looking at a decade or better of high debt service that will limit their dividends as well as their profit sharing. Others have less rosier opinions: https://liveandletsfly.com/isom-amer...crushing-debt/ an excerpt: The problem with American’s debt is that at its current repayment rate, the airline will have to perform well and apply excess earnings to payments. When Doug Parker and crew took over the (then) world’s largest airline in 2013, the carrier had paid down its debt from $14.4bn in 2005 to $7.2bn. That debt jumped to $18bn the next year and when he left in April of 2023 it had risen to $37.2bn. On paper, the airline plans to pay it off in 12 years but that assumes that American performs to its own expectations. But it almost never does. In 2023 the carrier forecast earnings per share to reach $3.00-3.25, it ended the year at $.29/share. In 2024 it forecast a profit of $2.25-3.25/share (a massive spread), it closed the year at $1.70/share. Both 2023, and 2024 were record revenue years for the airline. In 2025, it forecast $1.70-2.70 per share, revised that down to $.80 profit ranging down to a $.20 loss, and now back up to $.65-.95/share. The point is simple: American rarely performs to its own expectations. Trusting the airline to pay down it’s debt on time is a fool’s errand. Management’s goal of paying debt down by just $1.8bn over the next five quarters is based on management’s unbridled optimism it will make money in the future. The problem is that there’s little history to back the claim. If American continues at its current pace, it’s possible the airline will never pay down its debt and it could grow even if the carrier is diligent about applying its meager profits to debt service. |
Originally Posted by Excargodog
(Post 3988000)
Not so. I predicted that AA had huge debt at very favorable rates that they would be forced to refinance at much higher rates and they would be fortunate if they didn’t go bankrupt. They were fortunate, because the post COVID rebound was quicker and stronger than anticipated, so DESPITE having had to refinance at much higher rates, they did not enter bankruptcy. They do have exceedingly high debt service $1.467 BILLION for the first three quarters of 2025
https://americanairlines.gcs-web.com...ancial-results that is a continual drain on their profits. Now my guess is that they’ll survive, but they are looking at a decade or better of high debt service that will limit their dividends as well as their profit sharing. Others have less rosier opinions: https://liveandletsfly.com/isom-amer...crushing-debt/ an excerpt: But, as that great philosopher Yogi Berra said, “Predictions are hard, especially about the future.” |
Originally Posted by RStrawberry
(Post 3988060)
GMAFB. the lot of you were just frothing at the Mouth at the idea of spirit going under and these guys losing their paychecks while jerking each other off about what’s going to happen next and where the planes will go.
You’re all pathetic individuals, at least be brave enough to say yeah, you were rooting for their demise. You, however, chose to stay put at F9 in the best hiring environment in decades. Then you failed the interview at United (or maybe never interviewed at all cuz trolling is your thing?) so now you’re all butt hurt about it. Please spare us the misery |
Originally Posted by PNWFlyer
(Post 3988078)
in other words, you have no idea how corporate debt works and try to apply your Dave Ramsey strategies.
alt=""https://i.ibb.co/DgvFv5yG/IMG-7884.jpg And that because of their far lower profits and higher debt and debt to equity ratio they are paying higher interest than their legacy competitors. If you hope to convince me that’s a GOOD thing, you are certainly free to try, but I gotta warn you - you got your work cut out for you. alt=""https://i.ibb.co/nMfxx4vj/IMG-7886.jpg alt=""https://i.ibb.co/k2g8SVV5/IMG-7887.jpg |
Originally Posted by SoFloFlyer
(Post 3988085)
No pilot at United wants Spirit pilots to lose their jobs. At most, FORMER NKers came here to give insight on how it is on the other side.
You, however, chose to stay put at F9 in the best hiring environment in decades. Then you failed the interview at United (or maybe never interviewed at all cuz trolling is your thing?) so now you’re all butt hurt about it. Please spare us the misery |
AA's financials are not in three-alarm fire territory by any means.
But objectively they are not in as good a position as other legacies, and they might be in a tight spot in the face of a significant economic/industry downturn (they'd just need to tap some crisis financing, which would be available). In a black swan situation, they'd be the first to go (absent CARES style bailout). If things keep chugging along, they'll be fine. They're also too big to fail, absolute worst that could happen would be Ch.11, furloughs and CBA haircuts... nothing really new in this industry. |
Originally Posted by rickair7777
(Post 3988134)
AA's financials are not in three-alarm fire territory by any means.
But objectively they are not in as good a position as other legacies, and they might be in a tight spot in the face of a significant economic/industry downturn (they'd just need to tap some crisis financing, which would be available). In a black swan situation, they'd be the first to go (absent CARES style bailout). If things keep chugging along, they'll be fine. They're also too big to fail, absolute worst that could happen would be Ch.11, furloughs and CBA haircuts... nothing really new in this industry. |
Originally Posted by Excargodog
(Post 3988137)
Indeed. They are too big to fail, but not too big to go bankrupt if things got bad enough. Strangely enough, they were sort of the unicorn in their last bankruptcy, in that even their stockholders didn’t lose ALL of their money.
But laws have changed since, you need to be in really bad shape for the court to even entertain a BK plea now. That's for corporate, as far as I know individuals can still load up the lifestyle on credit cards and then just tap out at any time, no questions asked. |
Originally Posted by rickair7777
(Post 3988142)
That was an era when BK was allowed as a matter of bookkeeping convenience, vice last-ditch survival option. So the court probably didn't see the equity in wiping out common shareholders if the company was only moderately distressed.
But laws have changed since, you need to be in really bad shape for the court to even entertain a BK plea now. That's for corporate, as far as I know individuals can still load up the lifestyle on credit cards and then just tap out at any time, no questions asked. |
Originally Posted by jerryleber
(Post 3988150)
Spirit's two trips to bankruptcy seems to undermine your corporate argument and the 2005 BAPCPA legislation made it more difficult, expensive, and less financially advantageous for consumer debtors to file for bankruptcy, particularly Chapter 7 liquidation.
Also in the case of airlines, you can't cut it quite as close as in other industries, since the FAA will start looking hard at your operating authority if you're near insolvent (safety). The court will recognize this fact and allow for it. As I said, "as far as I know". My interest in that realm is limited to corporate law and business. Don't follow personal stuff. Glad to hear they made it harder, at the very least they should garnish the crap out of your wages if dig yourself a hole with lifestyle (more sympathy for medical debt, health-induced job loss, etc). |
Originally Posted by rickair7777
(Post 3988142)
That was an era when BK was allowed as a matter of bookkeeping convenience, vice last-ditch survival option. So the court probably didn't see the equity in wiping out common shareholders if the company was only moderately distressed.
But laws have changed since, you need to be in really bad shape for the court to even entertain a BK plea now. That's for corporate, as far as I know individuals can still load up the lifestyle on credit cards and then just tap out at any time, no questions asked. |
Originally Posted by fcoolaiddrinker
(Post 3988174)
AMR bankruptcy was well after the new legislation. Possibly to help facilitate the merger with usair? Also possible the new legislation helped shareholders obtain (provided some leverage) new stock in the combined company?
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Originally Posted by rickair7777
(Post 3988154)
My argument was that you need to be in financial dire straits.
Originally Posted by rickair7777
(Post 3988285)
OK, if it was under the new laws then different rules.
And YES, we ALL NOW, it was a strategic move........... |
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