Matters not. I still think he's not talking about Spirit, I'd guess he's thinking his Frontier with JetBlue, Virgin or Allegiant.

 

I'll disagree. I think he's very much talking about Spirit. The others are possibilities sure, but with all the management crossover within the last year it's hard to not imagine that something is afoot.

 

But, they've gone down that road before. It's sorta like a divorce, how often does a husband and wife divorce and then get remarried? Only in the movies.

Now, my analogy is nothing like business, but rarely is there a split and then a regrouping.

Here's some more logic, Indigo is intimately familiar with Spirit's business model, management personnel and finances. They'll know exactly how much Spirit has to purchase their share of Frontier, which obviously Spirit knows Indigo knows this. Spirit has repeatedly and historically done things on the cheap, mergers aren't cheap and Spirit can probably grow more efficiently organically than by purchasing and overhauling another airline.

Its the familiarity of Indigo and Spirit that's driving or giving any credence to a talk of a merger. I can't see a benefit to purchasing Frontier at all. Duplication of many routes, a higher wage workforce (higher than just getting new hires), older aircraft, it goes on and on. The one benefit Frontier has is a brand name and a sense of customer loyalty.

And, I see no way Frontier purchases Spirit.

Now, this is all fun speculation, we're years from either airline having to worry about this I think. I still think Mr. Franks is right though, there will be some consolidation within the industry outside of the big legacies (people tend to forget Alaska and Hawaiian are also legacy airlines). And the consolidation that makes the most sense will probably be the one that doesn't happen.

But, here's some fun pairs:

Allegiant - Sun Country
Alaska - Hawaiian
JetBlue - Virgin America
Spirit - Allegiant
JetBlue - Frontier

 

Just for discussion sake, can someone smarter than me elaborate on the pros and cons of a merger in our case? I know there are a lot of variables but is there ANY good that can come from it or could the whole thing possibly just end up a wash as we would roughly double in size. I guess a lot would depend on us getting a good contract inked before this really picked up steam.

 

Won't be good for us because F9 & Allegiant both make less money than us and have horrible work rules. Would do nothing for us

 

Merger talk is all just fun and speculation, rumor and conjecture. BB has repeatedly said no to any talk of a merger, and while he can say one thing and then mean another to a pilot group, his saying it essentially to investors means a lot. Investors do NOT like surprises, analysts do NOT like surprises and this airline, more than any other I can think of is investor driven. So, I would take BB's word on the merger talk, although anything shocking could happen.

Not sure how a merger would happen, but you're right, it probably wouldn't be good. You only have to go to the legacy merger threads to see how much enjoyment is there.

 

I agree it would be bad and it would be an inheritance of liability and problems. I also think oil will be back up to 80-90 dollars a barrel as quickly as it dropped by as early as summer and Spirits cost advantage will once again prove to be a shock to other airlines.

 

To me it looks like he separated the 5 little guys into two groups. Jet Blue and Virgin in one, which he says “has been pushed towards the legacy airline type of operations to attract passengers” and Spirit and Allegiant in the other which he identifies as ULCC’s. He then says he is taking Frontier in the ULCC direction. Unless J.B. or virgin were to adopt the ULCC model I can’t see how they would be part of a merger with Frontier. That leaves two choices and one of those is the airline he is using to clone Frontier from. Now add in the bridge contract rumors the fact that both airlines just announced the outsourcing of personal. I’m not saying this is something that I want, but this thing is starting to walk and talk like a duck.

 

Good points. The outsourcing could be something, or nothing. I agree with the assessment about JetBlue and Virgin, it's a strange one. The one variable will be an IPO of Frontier. If that goes forward, I think any talk of merger will be moot, UNTIL someone bigger gobbles them up. Frontier just doesn't have the money making machine that Spirit does or the cache and hip factor of Virgin to have a real strong IPO.

 

This is completey unrelated but is everyone as outraged as me with Obamas new proposed tax on 529 college savings plans?

I'm losing my mind over here