Originally Posted by Cujo 665

It's still be a win if half the new hires left within 6 month, rather than paying legacys rates in a new contract. Why are y'all so surprised. Don't y'all know this is what an ULCC is all about.

Originally Posted by flensr

My personal side-bet is that Delta and United both report a warning 2Q or 3Q next year that they are going to badly miss their hiring targets going forward. Not sure what they'll attribute the shortfall to, training capacity or "pilot shortage", but I think they'll have to bring it up during an earnings call if they don't meet the hiring targets they have already published and also fall short of their earnings targets. That could force some additional big changes across the industry, if the investors get spooked and pull their money out because they don't think the companies will be able to meet hiring targets for whatever reason.



That will risk another industry-wide breath holding competition, seeing who runs out of cash first and gets bought out just for their pilots.

Originally Posted by flensr

Anyone else see these bullets in the November investor overview slides?



Slide 16, Cost Advantage Drivers:

• “Juniority” benefit

• Adding new flight crew members mitigates inflationary unit cost pressures of an aging workforce



Slide 17, Costs Expected to Trend Lower; Unit cost tailwinds are expected to come from::

• Salaries, wages, & benefits

• On a per ASM basis, “juniority” benefit helps mitigate inflationary cost pressures



So basically they're telling investors they expect to keep hiring new guys, we hope the senior guys keep quitting before they get expensive, and low pay will continue for the foreseeable future. Once again, nice to confirm where they're headed and their expectations on negotiations. And double-nice to know they really don't mind high hire/quit churn and would rather keep training up new bus pilots than make any attempt to keep the ones they've already trained.



I'm sure the chief pilots are thrilled by this mgt priority focus, since everyone quitting as soon as possible is such a big part of their business plan, it now gets 4 bullets on 2 separate investor slides.



Maybe company mgt is actually encouraging the ALPA career seminars? That would be funny.

Originally Posted by gonyon

It's a big freaking game of chicken. They are slowly fooook'n themselves. They know it, we know it

Originally Posted by A320ULCC

This is all great until we ball one up. Not pointing a finger, but we all know it will be blamed on pilot error and then the death spiral will begin with the loss of pax and our competitors putting the screws to us. We have scumbag airline written all over us.

Originally Posted by Cujo 665

It's still be a win if half the new hires left within 6 month, rather than paying legacys rates in a new contract. Why are y'all so surprised. Don't y'all know this is what an ULCC is all about.

Originally Posted by Sailor

5 months is the beak even point, anything after they make money from that pilot.

Originally Posted by FlyingOkra

The real money will be in the Lost Revenue when they can no longer staff additional airframes, because the Training Pipeline can't keep up with Attrition + Growth.

Originally Posted by Cujo 665

You mean the entire dream!