New TSA Thread
12-10-2016, 09:15 AM
#1351
2 days off
Joined APC: Jun 2009
Position: Embraer Systems Analyst
Posts: 1,853
Originally Posted by FlyingKat
I know you are hoping that we don't get a great deal here because you decided to leave, but if you think United and TSA are going to stand still and just go out of business due to a lack of staffing you need to put down the crack pipe. The handwriting is on the wall. United is going to have to do something, the question is how far they will go and what they will do to make sure they have reliable regional lift. TSA will have to do something as well, but a lot of what TSA can do to match the wholly owneds depends on UAL. There is a new Sheriff in town at UAL (Kirby) and we will see what he does after the first of the year. We will also see what TSA does as well. I could see UAL buying regionals again or investing in them to gain more control. I also suspect there will be some regional consolidation next year due to the pilot shortage, and it wouldn't surprise me if TSA gets sold or buys someone else. But one thing you can count on is there will be big changes next year. So I don't blame anyone for leaving for Ameican or a better deal somewhere else, but to think the situation at TSA is going to remain "as is" is ridiculous.
12-10-2016, 09:19 AM
#1352
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2012
Position: CRJ FO
Posts: 4,599
Originally Posted by FlyingKat
I know you are hoping that we don't get a great deal here because you decided to leave, but if you think United and TSA are going to stand still and just go out of business due to a lack of staffing you need to put down the crack pipe. The handwriting is on the wall. United is going to have to do something, the question is how far they will go and what they will do to make sure they have reliable regional lift. TSA will have to do something as well, but a lot of what TSA can do to match the wholly owneds depends on UAL. There is a new Sheriff in town at UAL (Kirby) and we will see what he does after the first of the year. We will also see what TSA does as well. I could see UAL buying regionals again or investing in them to gain more control. I also suspect there will be some regional consolidation next year due to the pilot shortage, and it wouldn't surprise me if TSA gets sold or buys someone else. But one thing you can count on is there will be big changes next year. So I don't blame anyone for leaving for Ameican or a better deal somewhere else, but to think the situation at TSA is going to remain "as is" is ridiculous.
12-10-2016, 09:42 AM
#1353
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2013
Posts: 539
Originally Posted by FlyingKat
I know you are hoping that we don't get a great deal here because you decided to leave, but if you think United and TSA are going to stand still and just go out of business due to a lack of staffing you need to put down the crack pipe. The handwriting is on the wall. United is going to have to do something, the question is how far they will go and what they will do to make sure they have reliable regional lift. TSA will have to do something as well, but a lot of what TSA can do to match the wholly owneds depends on UAL. There is a new Sheriff in town at UAL (Kirby) and we will see what he does after the first of the year. We will also see what TSA does as well. I could see UAL buying regionals again or investing in them to gain more control. I also suspect there will be some regional consolidation next year due to the pilot shortage, and it wouldn't surprise me if TSA gets sold or buys someone else. But one thing you can count on is there will be big changes next year. So I don't blame anyone for leaving for Ameican or a better deal somewhere else, but to think the situation at TSA is going to remain "as is" is ridiculous.
I find it kind of humorous that those at the AA WOs think that its all gravy from here and that nothing bad could ever happen to them. Not that I wish anything bad to happen, I dont, but a little peak at history will reveal that everything is a Sin wave. Go up today, slide back down tomorrow. That is why it is always said that timing is everything. Im glad we are on the leading edge of the wave, but at some point the trend will reverse itself.
12-10-2016, 11:56 AM
#1354
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2011
Position: Taco Rocket Operator
Posts: 2,485
Originally Posted by chrisreedrules
You speak as if United has any more interest vested in TSA other than that you fly some 145s for them. They have other regionals they are much more heavily vested in that would likely see improvements and agreements before TSA ever did.
The advantage TSA has is our contracts are competitive and we only have 15 airplanes flying for AA that could be ditched quickly if needed. And we are a vessel UAL could use to get their hands on the MRJ. Heard from some Expressjet guys that UAL has already approached Skywest about legacy Expressjet and was told they had to take the whole operation including legacy ASA and UAL balked. TSA and Commutair both would be easy to buy and getting rid of 15 145s for AA would be easy. Skywest, Expressjet, Republic and Mesa would be much more complicated because of the amount of flying they have for Delta and AA. I don't see UAL developing a competitive program to mainline without a flow, and I don't see a flow unless UAL owns its lift.
Then again, they could park more RJs and move more flying to UAL. Again we all win because they will still need the pilots. 2017 is gonna be an interesting year.
12-10-2016, 12:00 PM
#1355
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2011
Position: Taco Rocket Operator
Posts: 2,485
Originally Posted by NeverHome
Yup Im gonna have to agree with this. The regional market is very dynamic and in a constant state of flux right now. Though TSA is reactionary, we (management) will react. How they react and weather it will be appropriate, that is the question!
I find it kind of humorous that those at the AA WOs think that its all gravy from here and that nothing bad could ever happen to them. Not that I wish anything bad to happen, I dont, but a little peak at history will reveal that everything is a Sin wave. Go up today, slide back down tomorrow. That is why it is always said that timing is everything. Im glad we are on the leading edge of the wave, but at some point the trend will reverse itself.
I find it kind of humorous that those at the AA WOs think that its all gravy from here and that nothing bad could ever happen to them. Not that I wish anything bad to happen, I dont, but a little peak at history will reveal that everything is a Sin wave. Go up today, slide back down tomorrow. That is why it is always said that timing is everything. Im glad we are on the leading edge of the wave, but at some point the trend will reverse itself.
12-10-2016, 03:28 PM
#1356
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2012
Position: CRJ FO
Posts: 4,599
Originally Posted by NeverHome
Yup Im gonna have to agree with this. The regional market is very dynamic and in a constant state of flux right now. Though TSA is reactionary, we (management) will react. How they react and weather it will be appropriate, that is the question!
I find it kind of humorous that those at the AA WOs think that its all gravy from here and that nothing bad could ever happen to them. Not that I wish anything bad to happen, I dont, but a little peak at history will reveal that everything is a Sin wave. Go up today, slide back down tomorrow. That is why it is always said that timing is everything. Im glad we are on the leading edge of the wave, but at some point the trend will reverse itself.
I find it kind of humorous that those at the AA WOs think that its all gravy from here and that nothing bad could ever happen to them. Not that I wish anything bad to happen, I dont, but a little peak at history will reveal that everything is a Sin wave. Go up today, slide back down tomorrow. That is why it is always said that timing is everything. Im glad we are on the leading edge of the wave, but at some point the trend will reverse itself.
12-10-2016, 03:32 PM
#1357
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2013
Posts: 539
Originally Posted by chrisreedrules
No one at the AA WOs thinks their on some sort of "gravy train". There is a reason that attrition is so high at the WOs. Pilots are leaving for greener pastures.
12-10-2016, 04:14 PM
#1358
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2012
Position: CRJ FO
Posts: 4,599
Originally Posted by NeverHome
Interesting. I have heard so many people talk about how great the WOs are. Quick upgrades, high pay, awesome QOL. So much so that we have lost a high number of FOs to the AA WOs. Soooooooooo, your telling me that all these guys are getting suckered?
12-10-2016, 04:22 PM
#1359
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Mar 2015
Position: Gear Slinger
Posts: 169
Originally Posted by FlyingKat
I know you are hoping that we don't get a great deal here because you decided to leave, but if you think United and TSA are going to stand still and just go out of business due to a lack of staffing you need to put down the crack pipe. The handwriting is on the wall. United is going to have to do something, the question is how far they will go and what they will do to make sure they have reliable regional lift. TSA will have to do something as well, but a lot of what TSA can do to match the wholly owneds depends on UAL. There is a new Sheriff in town at UAL (Kirby) and we will see what he does after the first of the year. We will also see what TSA does as well. I could see UAL buying regionals again or investing in them to gain more control. I also suspect there will be some regional consolidation next year due to the pilot shortage, and it wouldn't surprise me if TSA gets sold or buys someone else. But one thing you can count on is there will be big changes next year. So I don't blame anyone for leaving for Ameican or a better deal somewhere else, but to think the situation at TSA is going to remain "as is" is ridiculous.
UAL has been forced to do something... they bought 49% of CommutAir and ordered 65 737-700's while publicaly stating they will be drastically cutting their regional carriers with a focus on slashing the number of 50 seaters in operation and focusing on bringing flying back in house between now and 2020. So my opinion is that I do not think UAL is going to pay a contract carrier to throw large bonuses at new hires to boost staffing numbers. And I don't think they will buy any regionals.... Maybe CommutAir since they already own 49%. But I doubt it. These are opinions, not ill wishes for tsa or any other regional.
I do fully agree with you there it looks like there will be some major consolidation between several regional carriers moving forward. That has to happen for companies to survive.
12-10-2016, 05:09 PM
#1360
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2011
Position: Taco Rocket Operator
Posts: 2,485
Originally Posted by minimwage4
Haha what changes will there be? Management is doing better than they've done before. Everything is running great, still a bunch of planes out there making Hulas tons of cash. Revolving door for pilots which keep costs low. All they have to do is lose a few planes, staffing will be normal again. TSA has no value. The American flying can be transferred whenever they want it back, the XRs are owned by United. It's a paper company. I can see a consolidation with gojet if gojet loses their contracts but that's it.
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