This master of p

I think you need to really look at 18-03V as not the norm now. Compare 18-04V SFO CAP for 737 and A320.

The 18-03V SFO A320 CAP went to 9182. Sounds great until you see how incredibly senior it went on next bid for both 737 and A320, and this is for a junior base. A320 CAP went for 4192 and 737 CAP went 3940. That's a 5000# difference!!

Then take a look at wide body FO for SFO and LAX and those went senior too. Whatever movement you think we are having is done until the FALL/Winter of 2018.

Vacancy Bid Jr Captain as per the published Jr man table

16-06v 9523
16-10v 9658 June 2016 peak
16-11v 9651
17-01v 9606
17-04v 9513
17-07v 9458
17-10v 9432
18-03v 9252
18-04v 9189 December 2017...

1.5 years for the junior captain to go 469 numbers more senior.

I'm not saying the sky is falling but we aren't growing.

I love it when that happens, which seems to be all the time.

It’s not brain surgery. They just had a bunch of very senior people get bumped off the 747. Where do you think they are going? We are growing. Look at real numbers, not a vacancy bid. The retirement of the 747 is going to take some time to shake out.

They have been trying to lean out pilot staffing it seems ever since Kirby arrived. They can’t lean out too much more before the ******* hits the fan in the summer.

Really? With what new hires are we staffing that expansion? Our contract work rules haven’t changed in five years, the pilot productivity hasn’t gone up a bit, so whose staffing all this expansion?

If they want to build 20 hour three days instead of 20 hour four days I’m all for it. I’d gladly do 2 min turn layovers and have several more days off a month while being more productive. However the company writes the schedule and there is nothing in the contract preventing this. Meanwhile since 2013 when the 3.5:1 went into effect there has NEVER been a month in which productivity per day for 320/737 crews has even come close to 6 hours per day, let alone the 7-8 that would be needed to make us competitive to the likes of SWA. Until they start upping our productivity mgmts is just making noise. With a productivity average of 5.3 hours a day, any narrowbody staffing problem is self inflicted.

They are doing it through greater use of reserves and now not letting anyone drop below 50hrs. They are finding away to do more with the same amount. Not that I’m happy about it, but that appears to be the strategy.

Anecdotal, to be sure, but I’d say my own pilot productivity has gone up quite a bit, and entirely against my will:

I usually start my work week every Monday with an all-nighter, and have been doing the same for a couple years. When I started doing it, it was normal to recover from that first long night with a leisurely day two of the trip entirely off, enjoying all the festivities downtown Chicago, Boston, or Manhattan could offer.

Those days are gone. Rarely do I get trips with the second day off: now it’s a short day-over at the airport hotel and then one or two legs that night. That’s doing far more work than I was before for essentially the same pay. I still prefer it because I get paid for 4 days of work when I’m only gone 3 days, but it’s been far less of a gentlemanly schedule since Kirby showed up and started tweaking the system.

It goes without saying that more productivity per pilot equals less pilots needed. We may indeed be growing block-hour wise, but I don’t think our pilot group growth is commensurate.

Use reserves as a staffing solution as opposed to reseve are for. Ask (insert regional regional here) how good that works out.

And the legacy of J-Lo lives on......