Furlough estimate
07-04-2020 | 04:32 PM
#1061
Line Holder
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 819
Likes: 2
From: 756 left
The 1st round of this furlough will be much larger than the first round of the previous two furloughs. But for those that haven't been through it before, the dust doesn't settle after the initial round. It's just the start. Question is will they announce their aim number from the start or just announce the first round and leave those that are left just hanging on their creeping body dump.
07-04-2020 | 05:16 PM
#1062
Line Holder
Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 1,150
Likes: 9
The 1st round of this furlough will be much larger than the first round of the previous two furloughs. But for those that haven't been through it before, the dust doesn't settle after the initial round. It's just the start. Question is will they announce their aim number from the start or just announce the first round and leave those that are left just hanging on their creeping body dump.
07-04-2020 | 05:22 PM
#1063
Line Holder
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 819
Likes: 2
From: 756 left
07-04-2020 | 10:17 PM
#1064
Orbis Non Sufficit
Joined: Oct 2015
Posts: 788
Likes: 10
We had a somewhat normal schedule operating back then. Now they can slice and dice all they want up front and not risk understaffing.
07-04-2020 | 11:16 PM
#1065
Line Holder
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 819
Likes: 2
From: 756 left
07-05-2020 | 03:47 AM
#1066
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 661
Likes: 0
From: A320
The current environment is unprecedented. We are flying 20% of our schedule and the company had a 6 month heads up to start the bids/retraining. They could easily furlough 3000+ in October and not blink an eye. I still don’t understand why people compare this to past furloughs. 9/11 was a sudden unexpected event that they had to react to immediately, while still flying a 50-60%+ schedule. Apples to oranges compared to now. The CARES act provided them a heads up to do this as quickly and efficiently as possible.
07-05-2020 | 05:51 AM
#1067
Line Holder
Joined: Apr 2013
Posts: 741
Likes: 40
The current environment is unprecedented. We are flying 20% of our schedule and the company had a 6 month heads up to start the bids/retraining. They could easily furlough 3000+ in October and not blink an eye. I still don’t understand why people compare this to past furloughs. 9/11 was a sudden unexpected event that they had to react to immediately, while still flying a 50-60%+ schedule. Apples to oranges compared to now. The CARES act provided them a heads up to do this as quickly and efficiently as possible.
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07-05-2020 | 06:20 AM
#1068
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2012
Posts: 2,209
Likes: 6
From: 777
I wouldn't hang your hat on the cargo flights and a small fraction of what the schedule used to look like. Remember, those are in lieu of the pax flights. The cargo flights will stop once pax flights resume in a more normal schedule. The cargo will go with the pax then. But....I don't think that will happen any time soon as this has turned into a political football. Europe not letting in US passengers, Chinese playing games with required testing, and restrictions only for non-Chinese airlines.
07-05-2020 | 06:36 AM
#1069
Line Holder
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 740
Likes: 19
I wouldn't hang your hat on the cargo flights and a small fraction of what the schedule used to look like. Remember, those are in lieu of the pax flights. The cargo flights will stop once pax flights resume in a more normal schedule. The cargo will go with the pax then. But....I don't think that will happen any time soon as this has turned into a political football. Europe not letting in US passengers, Chinese playing games with required testing, and restrictions only for non-Chinese airlines.
Amongst the many things that will probably begin to be "revealed" in a couple of days, I think that the initial baseline 30% plan may not have accounted for the relative success of cargo-only and other carriers pushing us to up our domestic game (relatively speaking), though on the flip side it also probably didn't account for FL, TX, AZ surges that are "the biggest and best" #somuchwinning
07-05-2020 | 06:39 AM
#1070
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: May 2006
Posts: 1,246
Likes: 0
From: WB Bunkie
The current environment is unprecedented. We are flying 20% of our schedule and the company had a 6 month heads up to start the bids/retraining. They could easily furlough 3000+ in October and not blink an eye. I still don’t understand why people compare this to past furloughs. 9/11 was a sudden unexpected event that they had to react to immediately, while still flying a 50-60%+ schedule. Apples to oranges compared to now. The CARES act provided them a heads up to do this as quickly and efficiently as possible.
2001 not only saw the terrorist attacks, but a fairly large bursting of the tech bubble, which put us in a recession. 2008 saw one of the biggest drops of the stock market in a century. I am not bullish per se, but while not likely, I don’t think a quick recovery is totally out of the question.
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