Furlough estimate
06-08-2020 | 06:52 PM
#801
Banned
Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 94
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Per the last flight ops town hall, PC now stated they are as of now targeting a 30 percent reduction in pilot "staffing". He clarified this in the live Q+A at the end. He said the 30 percent is based on "active line pilots, currently 11,800 minus retirements between now and summer 2021". By my math there is approximately 400 pilots to retire in that period per Unitedseniority.com. That comes to 11,400(.30)=3,420 furloughs without any additional mitigation. This is a huge number and very unfortunate. I am included in this number as well. They seem to be planning on shrinking to profitability.
06-08-2020 | 08:10 PM
#802
Line Holder
Joined: May 2006
Posts: 1,044
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Good point, that's more than the entire UPS unionized pilot workforce (~2950)
06-08-2020 | 10:09 PM
#804
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 357
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From: Left - Dodge Caravan
You are correct in the math and uncertainty of whether that is what they will do. Unfortunately that equation only provides the number of Active pilots to be furloughed, and not the total number of pilots to be furloughed.
There are 1290 Inactive pilots as well, and that number includes those working as Instructor/Evaluators, FM's, Mil Leave pilots and those out on LTD. The company will furlough both active and inactive pilots in reverse seniority order.
If they do furlough 30% of the active pilots, they will furlough many more inactive ones as well as they go up the list...
Let's hope things turn around soon!
SP
06-09-2020 | 06:49 AM
#805
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: May 2020
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Reread the bid. We are 1300+ including natural retirements in July of 2021. Now we do have 800 retirements between now and end of 2021 or so but all the ones until July of 2021 have been accounted for.
06-09-2020 | 07:06 AM
#807
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 661
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From: A320
If you look at the “target headcounts” from the latest crew resources update, and you assume NB CAs will equal NB FOs, you will come up with 3125 extra positions after subtracting retirements between now and the end of May 2021. Still a huge number and I certainly hope it doesn’t come to that.
06-09-2020 | 07:58 AM
#808
777 - ret
Joined: Apr 2020
Posts: 863
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From: Waco CG-4 center seat
06-09-2020 | 08:17 AM
#810
Don't say Guppy
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,926
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From: Guppy driver
Andy I would take the opposite side of that bet. Because of increasing tensions between the two China and the US, which I am guessing will only get worse, I think the China capacity isn't coming back anywhere near where it was. I would put that in the negative category for UAL's short term outlook. We had far more capacity in the China market than any other US carrier. Maybe more than all US carriers combined. I think that will negatively impact UAL than any other carrier.
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