eagleatr

Some don't want to start over again at the bottom. Some are comfortable in their job and the money they make and don't want to start over again. Some don't have a degree, have training problems in their history, DUI's, or other things that would preclude them from being hired.

FXLAX

Don’t you need a current medical to get an ATP?
If that is correct, then they did only count ATPs with current medicals and showed that there were more than twice as many new ATPs with current medicals than airline pilots hired. By definition, doesn’t that say there isn’t a pilot shortage?

I mean, if you raise the pay enough, even the most apathetic ATP will want to do the job for that amount of money, right?

DarkSideMoon

My timeline might be slightly off, but wasn’t 2014 the last year you could take the ATP written without a CTP course, making 2016 the last year those written test could be used for an ATP checkride? I know a ton of people who snagged the knowledge test in 2014 even though they didn’t have the time to take the checkride. 2016 might have had an abnormally high number of people just due to that.

Airhoss

And of course we don’t want that lazy POS working at our airline.

Larry in TN

Many of those new ATPs are already employed by an airline and getting their initial ATP during their initial aircraft training.

Others are people getting type ratings in corporate jets.

You'd also want to subtract the number of single-engine ATPs from that number, if it wasn't done already.

FXLAX

Yes, I considered that probably most were pilots at regionals upgrading to captain, and corporate guys getting their first type rating, and I’m sure there were a smattering of SE ATPs getting their ticket for the “fun” of it. But all those regional and corporate pilots are the feed for the non-regional airlines. So they count.


True, but it doesn’t make my point false. Of course there are probably thousands others who have a new commercial certificate working their way up, and even more new private certificate starting out in their career as well.

So in my view, I agree with the math that there isn’t an actual pilot shortage.

FXLAX

You have a good point. I look it up and that year is an anomaly.

Here is the table:


The average after 2016 is about 5200. Still a considerable amount. According to FAPA, at non-regional airlines, in 2017 there were about 5000 hired, in 2018 about 4600, in 2019, about 5000.

hindsight2020

Yup. I fall into that demographic, though I had the hours already in 2014. Also, I didn't have an active FAA medical; merely using the 3rd class privileges afforded to my the AF class II. So if you look me up, you'd see an ATP holder with expired medical. Textbook "shadow inventory" demographic.

So I'd be careful in not counting ATPers with expired medical as somehow not able to hold a 1st class and thus compete for 121 jobs. I surmise most of the shadow inventory of ATP holders do in fact have expired medicals, but certainly have NOT lost the ability to get one. Big difference.

As to my reason for doing it? Insurance policy, just like everything else in life.

As to the "lazy POS" jab, meh, put it on my tab. I'm more than happy to admit I'm looking to throttle back in my 50s after the military. I value a second career that prioritizes the flexibility to throttle my work footprint to fit 3/4 time schedule desires, while still netting me high 5 figures. The airline job has been sold to me as one possible avenue, though anecdotes and pireps on that account are a very mixed bag (aka theoretical ability to drop vs the reality of "lack of coverage" in real life). If other sectors of .civ aviation are more conducive to that end, I'd be happy to explore those.

Larry in TN

First officers are required to have ATPs now.

Airhoss

That actually wasn’t a jab at you. If a guy gets out of the military and doesn’t want to go to the airlines more power to them! This job isn’t for everybody.

If a pilot is happy at the regionals, same as above.