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Old 07-02-2021, 05:42 AM
  #81  
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Originally Posted by Larry in TN View Post
The shortage, at the mainline level, isn't now. It was, and is about to be again, at the regional level. There aren't enough pilots in the regional pipeline to fill then future needs of the mainline carriers.
20,000 regional pilots can feed 2,400 pilots a year to majors indefinitely. The poaching is all done by FedEx, UPS, Southwest, LCC’s, ACMI.

United, Delta, and AA all have regionals/workload large enough to feed their operations in conjunction with military pilots.

They simply choose to train and not retain all civilian pilots who move on to other carriers/fractional/cargo.
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Old 07-02-2021, 11:09 AM
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Originally Posted by Larry in TN View Post
The shortage, at the mainline level, isn't now. It was, and is about to be again, at the regional level. There aren't enough pilots in the regional pipeline to fill then future needs of the mainline carriers.
But it seems there is a huge number of private pilots. Therefore, there should be an excess supply of people to overfill the regional pipeline.

Tongue firmly planted in the cheek. If you do not see through that logic flaw, I cannot help you.
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Old 07-02-2021, 04:08 PM
  #83  
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Originally Posted by TransWorld;[url=tel:3258150
3258150[/url]]But it seems there is a huge number of private pilots. Therefore, there should be an excess supply of people to overfill the regional pipeline.

Tongue firmly planted in the cheek. If you do not see through that logic flaw, I cannot help you.
Yeah, not everyone with a pilot license wants to work for the airlines, or is able for reasons other than money. Flawed logic and the arrogance of ALPA to presume such.
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Old 07-02-2021, 04:45 PM
  #84  
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Originally Posted by Grumpyaviator View Post
Yeah, not everyone with a pilot license wants to work for the airlines, or is able for reasons other than money. Flawed logic and the arrogance of ALPA to presume such.
Specifically, ALPA pointed out the number of pilots that had earned an ATP. Not just "a pilot license". I would guess... although I don't know it as a fact... that most pilots getting an ATP are looking to something in the professional piloting world.
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Old 07-02-2021, 06:30 PM
  #85  
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Originally Posted by HuggyU2 View Post
Specifically, ALPA pointed out the number of pilots that had earned an ATP. Not just "a pilot license". I would guess... although I don't know it as a fact... that most pilots getting an ATP are looking to something in the professional piloting world.
I would bet 1/3 of military buds had no interest (and aren’t) flying for the airlines.
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Old 07-02-2021, 11:47 PM
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Originally Posted by HuggyU2 View Post
Specifically, ALPA pointed out the number of pilots that had earned an ATP. Not just "a pilot license". I would guess... although I don't know it as a fact... that most pilots getting an ATP are looking to something in the professional piloting world.

Didn’t they go a step further and actually specify the number of active (current medical) ATPs? I thought I read that somewhere.
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Old 07-03-2021, 08:51 AM
  #87  
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Currently at the airport where I fly about 1 in 10 private students want to fly as a career. It's only one data point, but it is a data point.
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Old 07-03-2021, 10:15 AM
  #88  
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Originally Posted by CANEWT View Post
Currently at the airport where I fly about 1 in 10 private students want to fly as a career. It's only one data point, but it is a data point.

I’d say that’s very close to what I observed as a flight school owner from 2009 - 2015.
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Old 07-03-2021, 10:34 AM
  #89  
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Originally Posted by HuggyU2 View Post
True...
B
And frankly... if 50+% of the Regional pilots are in the queue and can't get hired by the Legacy Airlines... is there really a "shortage"?
Why can't those pilots get hired at a Mainline/Legacy Carrier? What are the obstacles? What's hold'em back?
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Old 07-03-2021, 12:52 PM
  #90  
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Originally Posted by Grumble View Post
I would bet 1/3 of military buds had no interest (and aren’t) flying for the airlines.
If they have "no interest", it is unlikely that any of them would go to the effort to get the ATP certificate... and therefore wouldn't show up in the ALPA data analysis.

Originally Posted by FXLAX View Post
Didn’t they go a step further and actually specify the number of active (current medical) ATPs? I thought I read that somewhere.
Not in the article I recall. It is Air Line Pilot Magazine, May 2018, Page 23-24.
https://www.alpa.org/-/media/ALPA/Fi...t-may-2018.pdf
If you cannot login to see it, it says in 2016 there were over 9500 ATP's issued.
And there were 3500-4000 pilots hired by US airlines.

Originally Posted by Oletimer View Post
Why can't those pilots get hired at a Mainline/Legacy Carrier? What are the obstacles? What's hold'em back?
Good questions. I don't know.
Is the "four year degree" a factor with a lot of Regional pilots?
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