But just when you think you'll actually be above the G-line next month they come out with another TDY to your base to help ensure you are not going to be above the line (I know that's not the goal of the TDY, it is just the result). It's happened twice now, and third time is now coming in March.

I think it has more to do with timing than bases. I believe (i don't know andy) that he must have upgraded at the beginning of a growth wave where that growth made his holding a line rather quick. We are still growing by 180 NB in the next 3 years but I don't know if that is enough for a newhire to upgrade after 12 months and to hold a line in a year. Chainsaw math if we keep hiring 1500 a yr that newhire would have 4500 below him on the list at his 3 yr anniversary. Current reliable lineholder 73 CA is around 8500 on our list of 13000 today... a new contract, better reserve rules, 73 doing some atlantic flying + the ability to cram your schedule with 1 and 2 day domestic, or a severe lack of qualified applicants or lack of LCA's slowing hiring could turn this on a dime. It is a catch 22... if they fix the contract correctly it should incentivize the senior people to flow to where they should be but if they don't the temporary juniority of certain positions COULD continue.

Another moving part ... (I upgraded in 2018) is that we didn't have nearly the retirements when I upgraded that we do today.

If one takes upgrade at year 1, waits 5 months for his bid to be activated, then spends 5 months before completing training and IOE, a year as CA puts them close to year 3.

With all this growth, retirements & movement(omitting out of control circumstances), how many years would you anticipate for upgrade from Capt EWR (737/320) to the Left Seat of EWR 756, 777 & 787 from a NH perspective then?

Probably 10 for 756 and 15 for 777. WAG.

756 will be retired before a new hire this year will upgrade. (just speculation)

Trng
 

With the backlog in the training dept, for those attending “charm” school next month, how long are those folks going to wait to commence equipment training?

757-200 by 2025
757-300 by 2027
767-300 by 2025-2027
767-400 by 2028


853 aircraft as of today and I see 1000 by 2025 active

My guess

Most were seeing their schedules populate a month or two out from charm school from what I am hearing. It depends on the fleet your coming from and going to. They were trying to slow the 75/77 people from leaving.

I got the impression that most of the Y2Captain awards (500+ hrs and off probation) are mostly available for EWR & SFO NB. Is DCA (73/320) also seeing such rapid upgrades similar to those 2 bases?

Also, although on RSV for years, how long should it take to move on from bunkie to regularly flying on the WB fleet of EWR & DCA?