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Old 10-18-2022 | 01:10 PM
  #21  
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Originally Posted by horrido27
That DID NOT HAPPEN..
And it is sometimes sad what people post and others may think as facts.
As someone who would have been in that 4700 pilot category, I had a phone call from my CP concerning my "negative" views on the LOA. It was mentioned at the time that if this LOA failed, the company could have furloughed up to 5000... to include me.
While I might not like that, so be it.. BECAUSE-
Per the UPA, I need 90 day Notice (takes us up to 1 Jan 2021)
Then..
I get 4 and 1/2 months pay (pays me to middle of May 21)

I NEVER expected the company to pull the trigger because of the mayhem it would have caused them.. But it was a great FEAR motivator.
I have certain skills to fall back on. We are ALL Professional Pilots. There will ALWAYS be flying jobs out there. (maybe they won't pay nearly the same.. but oh well. it's short term).
I (like many others out there) have a few skills beside piloting.

End of the Day, I believe it was roughly 2250ish pilots who got the WARN notice. Sucks for them but there is a price to being junior. Just like there is a price being junior on the BES of your choice when times are better.

I do agree, take a bid where you feel comfortable to sit in if (when) the music stops. Also understand- once the music stops.. the contract has to be complied with.
Glad it may have worked out for you but never forget, it didn't work out for some others.

Always
Motch

it was about 2850 that got notices, around mid 2015 hires. I know this because I was about 200 from the cut line.

speculation about withholding Capt seats until new base(s) announced is spot on. Whoever takes those last filled seats to say SFO for example, but then is too junior to lateral elsewhere, man they are going to be in the house of pain for years and years. Really hope they’re local because that gamble is not going to work out for some. Odds are they bounce for WB FO once the seat lock is up.
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Old 10-18-2022 | 01:16 PM
  #22  
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Originally Posted by webecheck
Whoever takes those last filled seats to say SFO for example, but then is too junior to lateral elsewhere, man they are going to be in the house of pain for years and years.
That’s a little hyperbolic. Anyone who doesn’t like it can do whatever their seniority will hold after 2 years. Could be a long 2 years, sure; but 2 is the max you'd be forced to stay.
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Old 10-18-2022 | 01:33 PM
  #23  
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Originally Posted by hummingbear
That’s a little hyperbolic. Anyone who doesn’t like it can do whatever their seniority will hold after 2 years. Could be a long 2 years, sure; but 2 is the max you'd be forced to stay.
Exactly. I think with 2500+ new hires a yr, there's no way a solid contigent doesn't upgrade. The rsv time will plummet.
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Old 10-18-2022 | 01:37 PM
  #24  
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Originally Posted by hummingbear
Trick is, if they open a FL base, for example, a lot of those CAs are going to be senior guys coming from EWR. So you draw down the EWR flying, but lose a lot of hub staffing in the process. At the end of the day, you still need people willing to sit reserve in EWR; so how well it addresses the problem remains to be seen.

I still say as the current hiring tsunami continues to hit their respective 1 year marks, there will be an increasing number willing to bear the pains of juniority for CA pay. Will be interesting to see how it all plays out, though.
Actually.. it's pretty smart as they can just adjust the G Line in EWR and all of a sudden, they still have pilots sitting reserve on the narrowbodies and the mid seniority pilots who are sitting FO all of a sudden take a Left Seat at a new base, or finally move over into the Left seat in EWR.

The goal of the company is to mitigate empty left seat bids. They can fill the right seat all day long with new hires!

If you look at last bid, you will see-
DCA 73 32 Unfilled
EWR A320 6 Unfilled
EWR 73 46 Unfilled
LAX 73 52 Unfilled
SFO 73 45 Unfilled

Yet no slots for those unfilled positions on this latest Vacancy Bid.
Couple of things are happening-
1) They are "pocketing them" for an upcoming Base/Equipment/Seat announce Bid
2) They are "concerned" that the 73Max 10 debacle will cause lower new aircraft arrival next year.

Guess we will hear a little more of it in the Earnings Report.. and when they make the announcement of the new BES's.

Always
Motch

PS) I'm betting MCO, BOS and LAS as the new BES's and they will have NO Problem filling those~ And not all at once either.
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Old 10-18-2022 | 01:42 PM
  #25  
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Originally Posted by horrido27
Actually.. it's pretty smart as they can just adjust the G Line in EWR and all of a sudden, they still have pilots sitting reserve on the narrowbodies and the mid seniority pilots who are sitting FO all of a sudden take a Left Seat at a new base, or finally move over into the Left seat in EWR.

The goal of the company is to mitigate empty left seat bids. They can fill the right seat all day long with new hires!

If you look at last bid, you will see-
DCA 73 32 Unfilled
EWR A320 6 Unfilled
EWR 73 46 Unfilled
LAX 73 52 Unfilled
SFO 73 45 Unfilled

Yet no slots for those unfilled positions on this latest Vacancy Bid.
Couple of things are happening-
1) They are "pocketing them" for an upcoming Base/Equipment/Seat announce Bid
2) They are "concerned" that the 73Max 10 debacle will cause lower new aircraft arrival next year.

Guess we will hear a little more of it in the Earnings Report.. and when they make the announcement of the new BES's.

Always
Motch

PS) I'm betting MCO, BOS and LAS as the new BES's and they will have NO Problem filling those~ And not all at once either.

Give me a SEA too for the “4 corners” approach
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Old 10-18-2022 | 01:56 PM
  #26  
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Originally Posted by webecheck
it was about 2850 that got notices, around mid 2015 hires. I know this because I was about 200 from the cut line.

speculation about withholding Capt seats until new base(s) announced is spot on. Whoever takes those last filled seats to say SFO for example, but then is too junior to lateral elsewhere, man they are going to be in the house of pain for years and years. Really hope they’re local because that gamble is not going to work out for some. Odds are they bounce for WB FO once the seat lock is up.
Just making sure I didn't go crazy (LOL)

There's an interesting thread on here about the Furloughs
And this is in one of the posts

New CCS message from Quigley.

2250 WARN notices.


'As you read earlier in this message, 2250 pilots will be receiving WARN notices via CCS later today that specify potential furlough start dates, which includes October 1 (1750 pilots), October 30 (250 pilots) and November 30, 2020 (250 pilots)

Furlough estimate

Pg 123.. bottom.
ALWAYS kinda cool to look at these old threads~

Last edited by horrido27; 10-18-2022 at 02:11 PM.
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Old 10-18-2022 | 02:11 PM
  #27  
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Originally Posted by horrido27
Just making sure I didn't go crazy (LOL)

There's an interesting thread on here about the Furloughs
And this is in one of the posts

New CCS message from Quigley.

2250 WARN notices.


'As you read earlier in this message, 2250 pilots will be receiving WARN notices via CCS later today that specify potential furlough start dates, which includes October 1 (1750 pilots), October 30 (250 pilots) and November 30, 2020 (250 pilots)

2850 is correct. The initial number was 2250 but the number was revised upwards.
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Old 10-18-2022 | 02:21 PM
  #28  
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Originally Posted by BAe3100FO
Thanks for your wisdom and input.
No problem, occasionally I try to clean up the garbage around here.
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Old 10-18-2022 | 03:06 PM
  #29  
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Originally Posted by hummingbear
Trick is, if they open a FL base, for example, a lot of those CAs are going to be senior guys coming from EWR. So you draw down the EWR flying, but lose a lot of hub staffing in the process. At the end of the day, you still need people willing to sit reserve in EWR; so how well it addresses the problem remains to be seen.

I still say as the current hiring tsunami continues to hit their respective 1 year marks, there will be an increasing number willing to bear the pains of juniority for CA pay. Will be interesting to see how it all plays out, though.

My very unscientific analysis flying with everyone from first post IOE trip to being here 6 years or so says no to your position.

Granted, demographics change and we will start getting folks that didn’t live regional purgatory. Time will tell. Everyone I fly with says they want to live in base and be senior. They’ve had 4 stripes and don’t care about that at U until it works for them.

Hell, I didn’t chase it and been through 25 years of fun here. I finally upgraded 5 years ago but I lived a long single seat life and came here for QOL/compensation. Not to chase a dollar at the expense QOL.

I think most give too little credit to the newer pilots. I can’t believe some of the comments I’ve heard about TA1 during cruise. They get it.

Do educate/mentor the new military folks like I was long ago. I was mentored by one of the best after signing up for SSC. Just a paradigm shift. Military folks just need to learn the new AOR and threats. They’ll get it pretty quick. Sadly, all the union seems to care about is PAC contribution from every new class.
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Old 10-18-2022 | 03:26 PM
  #30  
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Originally Posted by horrido27
I NEVER expected the company to pull the trigger because of the mayhem it would have caused them.. But it was a great FEAR motivator.


Always
Motch
Those WARN letters were also designed to scare politicians into opening up the people's wallet.
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