The XLR going to (mostly) PHL will help grow the base. We're getting 50 of those things...and even if it's just 12 daily flights (it will probably be more...the XLR will open new thin international routes that the 757 and 767 served...but will also be used to add frequency on other routes), those additional new routes means more domestic feed into that international hub. PHL's main reason for existence is that niche European flying that's not well served by JFK.

 

Your numbers aren't quite right.

AA has about 5200 retirements between now (well, my data is about 10 days old) and the end of 2029. They peak in 2025-2026.
UA has about 3700 retirements during the same time. They peak in 2028-2031.

That 1500 person gap slowly dwindles after that, since AA's list is older than UA's.

Since the beginning of 2022, UA has hired around 3500 pilots. I don't have numbers for AA during that time.

Fundamentally, the interpretation of the seniority list depends entirely on how much you buy into United's insane growth plans. In a purely hypothetical scenario where United Next plays out the way upper management intends it to, that would equate to a fleet size increase of roughly 80%, just taking the firm orders into account. It wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility to see 25K+ pilots on the seniority list. Between 2023-2025, factoring in retirements and stated growth plans, the current seniority list could grow by roughly 6000 pilots, which would put them well north of 20K in the next 2.5 years.

If somebody got hired at United right now at roughly 16500, your percentage could be anywhere between 95% if hiring stopped tomorrow and 50% by the end of the 2020s if UA grows to 25000 and they have 3700 retirements.

Please note that I'm not making any commentary about the likelihood of these plans happening (to their fullest). I can say definitively they won't happen if we don't get a new contract sometime soon. There are a lot of variables and unknowns that could affect these plans that have been talked about ad nauseum here already. The investments United has made on aircraft and sims and the expansion going on around TK certainly give some credibility to the notion they're dead serious about it, but things can and do happen in this industry.

I'm not especially familiar with AA's growth plans, but I have a lot more confidence in United's ability to execute massive growth than I do in AA's right now. That's based on a combination of the fact that UA has already laid the groundwork for said growth and that AA will have to work a lot harder to offset their attrition given their bell curve peaks several years sooner, and I'm not remotely convinced there is a cohesive plan for much of anything up at Skyview.

 

The 787 is going to CLE?

AA runs flights to 10 European international destinations out of PHL with connectivity to cities the western United States that DC and JFK don’t fly to. AA has a more robust domestic network than United. There’s probably too much lift and pax volume traveling through PHL that DCA and JFK can’t replace if it went away, especially all the RJs bringing pax in from podunk airports all over the east coast/midwest.

 

I remember back in 2021 when Bitcoin was trading at $66,000 and experts were making bold projections Bitcoin would be $500,000 by the end of 2023. I don’t think that’s going to happen.

Projecting 80% fleet growth and 25,000 pilots at United by the end of the decade. Sheesh! That’s going to be a lot of unpaid debt and furloughs.

 

Philly is the 7th biggest metro area in the United States, between DC (6th) and Atlanta

Cleveland is 34th - between Indianapolis and Nashville (and beneath both columbus and cincinnati)

Not comparable at all

 

UAL is nowhere near awful. Sorry to burst your continuous hate bubble.

 

*as long as you're off reserve.

 

Then I guess you could say UAL is beyond awful right now. Sorry, you tee'd that one up.

Its all hyperbolic BS. You get hired at UA, DL, AA, you have pretty much arrived.

 

Projecting that PHL is going be like CLE is a stretch….

 

Philly is horrible as a city, as an airport even as a hub.
The only reason it exists is because there was no competition for Usair and no slots.

As a city Philly is dying, there is no wealth, no industry or a highly educated population like NYC, Washington or Boston. Out of all the northeastern cities it probably suffers from the most despair. If AA can get rid of it they will and honestly they should.

https://youtu.be/Bi1Kf-1qd6Y