What is the difference between the number of 777/78 trips in the smallest base, and largest nonbase? I imagine there's plenty of 777 trips with DEN or ORD layovers but clearly not enough for the company to want to add a base there. At least that adds a datapoint of when a new WB base becomes less of a pipe dream

 

I think the real question is how many Polaris seats could the company fill coming to/from international destinations into/out of MCO/TPA. One argument is that, as a leisure destination, you are more likely to have cost-conscious families. Another argument is that Central Florida is growing as a business/technology hub which will draw more of those valuable Polaris business travelers AND an MCO/TPA base could feed a growing Southerneastern US network.

It will be interesting to see what United does, but with Delta and Air France flying more direct international flights out of MCO, not to mention Emirates/Virgin/BA/Azul/etc flying widebodies to MCO, there is clearly a lot of international market share to be captured. The important piece here is if Central Florida continues growing at or near the pace of the past 10 years or so.

 

Filled Polaris seats and average yields out of MCO/TPA are only part of the equation. The other question is whether there is more business / higher yield out of EWR/SFO/LAX etc. There may be simply be more opportunity elsewhere - specifically in a supply constraint (I.e. cannot deliver any aircraft) environment.

 

This. Until BA starts delivering the 787s they owe us, it’s all just mental masturbation. We can play the “what if” game until the end of time.

 

We already fly international from MCO to Frankfurt. Lufthansa (actually their leisure airline Discover) does. yes not our metal but with the JV its the same benefit to the company. Same for TPA.

 

Sorry guys, but I'm Trying to bring this thread back to life, with the same question asked here 1 million times, but now I have some CJOs to choose, and this question is very important in my decision.
How long until to get a MCO base now, in 2025 ?
I know, we don't have a crystal ball, but do you see this base closing in the future ?
Thanks for the help, cheers.

 

The most junior awarded FO on the last vacancy was a mid-January 2024 hire. The last I heard was no growth planned for 2025 but many people seem cautiously optimistic about some expansion down the road.

 

if your priority is florida, AA is the best choice

if you want to be in Orlando, UA is a reasonable/the best option. It’s a small base, movement is idiosyncratic. Should not take forever though

 

Cautiously optimistic is right. A ton of FL commuters are hoping Kirby’s big announcement is putting more pilots in FL bases.

I’m hoping all these PBI/FLL/MIA overnights sway someone up high we need a base in S Florida, but I’ll take anything.

 

If you’re truly long-term looking at FL. AA/MIA if you live south of TPA/St. Pete or DL/ATL if you live in or north of those cities.

MCO for UA will likely close in the next major downturn before its adds another category/expands it’s never gonna be one airlines hub (e.g. nowhere to expand, too low fare, too much competition). The U.S. southeast is a clear weakness in UA’s network and right now no potential to grow; just like Delta in TX or AA in pacific NW. Plus, the second you get tired of driving to fly a 737 you’ll be commuting to EWR/IAD (low frequency/lots of commuters) or IAH (senior base, low frequency, lots of commuters) both of which are mostly on 737’s (1 JS can’t be reserved).

FL commuting to ATL does have high loads, but bookable JS, high frequency on large planes, yellow slipping to only need 1 commute flight, and P.S. on the backup makes it much easier than people make it out to be + it’s an hour flight or less. ATL is also HQ (career opportunity/training center) and has 5,000+ pilots based there, seniority will always move steady there, and WB flying is night&day better than MIA. Pure speculation, but Delta is doing some interesting growth in Tampa; being the anchor tenant for new terminal/gates. Maybe a MCO/TPA 320 or 737 base once fleets consolidate more? Delta already does intl. & domestic WB flying out of TPA and MCO on their own metal with Skyteam in general dominating the TPA/MCO market.

If you can drive to MIA in south Florida that’s a clear winner. But, AA/DL’s financial performance would be a factor in on my decision as well and how you see each company performing in the near & far future.

p.s. these are my own opinions/experiences on the matter. Please take it as such