MCO Base Timelines
04-15-2025 | 12:55 PM
#151
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Joined: Sep 2020
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No specific/inside details but looks like the 737 fleet is still growing steadily throughout the year according to the SEC filing. I can't imagine there's going to be many upgrades still after the last couple years. I wouldn't say a significant surplus but it seems as if the surplus will be there cutting 4% capacity by the end of the year although it might hit the airbus fleet more.
Upgrades will probably stay pretty senior if/when vacancies happen. Secondary vacancies probably will still happen as the 787 deliveries still happen.
Upgrades will probably stay pretty senior if/when vacancies happen. Secondary vacancies probably will still happen as the 787 deliveries still happen.
524 Retirements in the next 365 days not counting pilots going on LTD. There will still be bids almost every month since most of those pilots are WB Captains and they will need to be replaced and their seats backfilled.
04-15-2025 | 01:21 PM
#152
On Reserve
Joined: Jan 2017
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While true about retirements, those guys aren't exactly the most productive and even SK says that he expects that. Now there's likely gonna be the next set of guys that are less productive warranting hiring/vacancies. I still see hiring coming for modest growth (1000/yr or so) but don't forget that the average pilots aren't flying the "normal LPV schedules" either. I'm guessing the company would rather run a bit lean on staffing in the near term and maybe ramp up for next summer.
04-15-2025 | 03:12 PM
#153
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Joined: Dec 2018
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“near retirement” guys not being productive is a feature of our sick policy and not a bug as they draw down their accrued hours. Has nothing to do with age or being senior but only with getting paid for staying home “sick”
04-15-2025 | 05:28 PM
#154
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Joined: Aug 2021
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Senior pilots productivity nearing retirement is a data point with significant history that the company has and can see its a continued trend. It will continue to occur by new people nearing retirement and so I don’t believe there will be any less backfills from retirements. The trickle down affect of a 787 captain retiring is significant. At the lowest affect he/ she would be replaced by a 737 CA which would create 3 events, the 737 CA to 787 CA upgrade and then for instance 737 FO to 737 CA which in turn creates 737 FO event either a new hire or some kind of internal. Similarly how furloughs/ displacements are cost prohibitive.
I think we will see pilot hiring at retirement numbers or more.
I was very pleased with the outlook, even should a recession hit they believe they will turn a good profit.
I think we will see pilot hiring at retirement numbers or more.
I was very pleased with the outlook, even should a recession hit they believe they will turn a good profit.
04-15-2025 | 06:33 PM
#155
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Nov 2017
Posts: 3,192
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Got it. So I will file it with the rumor of 30,000 pilots on the seniority list by 2030…
I really don’t want to give perspective pilots that Orlando is anything more than a station that has a small 737 only pilot base for flying to and from the other hubs.
Orlando is not a hub. It’s not planned to be a hub. It wouldn’t be a good hub for reasons discussed in this thread. It could close at any time (like SEA, MIA, and HNL did). Where you plan to live is perhaps the biggest consideration when picking a major airline. I wouldn’t pick United if I lived in Florida. You’re probably better off choosing American (MIA) or Delta (ATL).
I really don’t want to give perspective pilots that Orlando is anything more than a station that has a small 737 only pilot base for flying to and from the other hubs.
Orlando is not a hub. It’s not planned to be a hub. It wouldn’t be a good hub for reasons discussed in this thread. It could close at any time (like SEA, MIA, and HNL did). Where you plan to live is perhaps the biggest consideration when picking a major airline. I wouldn’t pick United if I lived in Florida. You’re probably better off choosing American (MIA) or Delta (ATL).
No one, at any airline, should make decisions based on plans. Plans change. What has been discussed is where MCO could go and the potential in the coming years.
The only thing factual that you stated is that “Orlando is not a hub.” The rest is speculations and holds as much weight as others saying it could be a hub.
Not to mention that saying you wouldn’t pick United over Delta if you lived in Florida is absolutely asinine.
1) United ACTUALLY has a base in Florida.
2) MCO-ATL is a tougher commute than MCO-EWR/LGA
You don’t have to believe that MCO could be a hub in the future, but don’t have perspective pilots pick DL over UA if they live in Florida.
04-16-2025 | 06:07 AM
#156
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Joined: Apr 2013
Posts: 741
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Senior pilots productivity nearing retirement is a data point with significant history that the company has and can see its a continued trend. It will continue to occur by new people nearing retirement and so I don’t believe there will be any less backfills from retirements. The trickle down affect of a 787 captain retiring is significant. At the lowest affect he/ she would be replaced by a 737 CA which would create 3 events, the 737 CA to 787 CA upgrade and then for instance 737 FO to 737 CA which in turn creates 737 FO event either a new hire or some kind of internal. Similarly how furloughs/ displacements are cost prohibitive.
I think we will see pilot hiring at retirement numbers or more.
I was very pleased with the outlook, even should a recession hit they believe they will turn a good profit.
I think we will see pilot hiring at retirement numbers or more.
I was very pleased with the outlook, even should a recession hit they believe they will turn a good profit.
04-16-2025 | 07:03 AM
#157
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Joined: Sep 2020
Posts: 1,575
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We will still have to hire/train to replace retirements. I understand you are trying to "bistromath" this, but we will almost certainly be hiring/training after the summer because of training backfills from retirements.
04-16-2025 | 08:16 AM
#158
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Joined: Oct 2018
Posts: 650
Likes: 172
He did mention on his CNBC interview that they were looking at paring back flights like low-performing redeye flights that usually barely break even during good times.
04-16-2025 | 09:00 AM
#159
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Joined: Sep 2020
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On the earnings call with analysts this morning they clarified and said we are reducing "narrowbody capacity by 2% in the coming months". They further clarified that its mostly domestic Redeye flying being reduced.
04-16-2025 | 10:57 AM
#160
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Apr 2015
Posts: 2,923
Likes: 95
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